The Singularity is near

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Raymond Kurzweil has predicted that in 15 years life expectancy will rise faster than you are aging, leading to a sort of immortality, where people would still die but it would be accidental. Much more importantly around 2029 we shall have the singularity, when man-machine intelligence shall have evolved to such a level that today we cannot even imagine what it will be like; the era of Post-humans.

 

Kurzweil is not another L Ron Hubbard, he is an eminent scientist who has been spot on for every damn thing that he has predicted. His argument is based on the exponential growth of technologies, where in addition the change in the rate of growth is also exponential. Which means that advances in human history come progressively faster...

 

 

 

 

The evolution of life forms required billions of years for the first steps (e.g., primitive cells); later on progress accelerated. During the Cambrian explosion, major paradigm shifts took only tens of millions of years. Later on, Humanoids developed over a period of millions of years, and Homo sapiens over a period of only hundreds of thousands of years. . . .

 

The first technological steps-sharp edges, fire, the wheel–took tens of thousands of years. For people living in this era, there was little noticeable technological change in even a thousand years. By 1000 A.D., progress was much faster and a paradigm shift required only a century or two. In the nineteenth century, we saw more technological change than in the nine centuries preceding it. Then in the first twenty years of the twentieth century, we saw more advancement than in all of the nineteenth century. Now, paradigm shifts occur in only a few years time. The World Wide Web did not exist in anything like its present form just a few years ago; it didn’t exist at all a decade ago.

Would you want to be immortal? Would you want to be even more of a cyborg than you already are? Would you dare to counter Dr Kurzweil?

 

NYT: The Future Is Now? Pretty Soon, at Least

 

NYT: Does evolution go fast forward?

 

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You have it all wrong..

 

To get the power your name has to be Juan..

 

People just get confuswed due to the dodgy french/scottish accent.

 

There can be only Juan...

 

I say come immortality..lets all see how we can gte on with few changes in the world, being stuck with the way it is now and the slow yet constant creep of too many poeple and not enough space/food..

 

People dieing by accident, well, if you call being shot in a food war an accident...

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The solution, those of us that can afford immortality will use possession of the technology to lure vast swaths of humanity hungry to join our immortal ranks to fight for us as foot soldiers. We'll use these soldiers in endless wars with each other to keep the population low and vie for the remaining resources and land. It'll be grand - who wants to sign up as a foot soldier now, get in early and you might even get a coushy position as an officer.

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Shit! does this mean we will have to work until we are at least 500 years old? Pension schemes will crazy :o

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Great... :( immortality with the body of a fifty year old... I feel cheated. Will there be a way to gain your youth back?

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You should have been at last years Richard Clarke book seminar and book signing for Breakpoint.

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Shit! does this mean we will have to work until we are at least 500 years old? Pension schemes will crazy

Joking apart that's a serious point and one we're seeing already seeing demographics are shifting. If people did start living to even 120/150 how would the world look? Apart from very wrinkly.

 

I'm kind of all for advances in technology and medicine but there are some interesting decisions to be made in the not too distant future. These predictions look pretty adventurous but perhaps in 100 or 200 years?

 

I do wonder whether a super intelligent machine would sit there and think about sex all day though.

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The singularity is something i don't have the courage to predict, but his other predictions are startling but plausible.

 

· Within 5 years the exponential progress in nanoengineering will make Solar power cost-competitive with fossil fuels

· Within 10 years we will have a pill that allows us all to eat whatever we feel like and never gain any unwanted weight

· In 15 years, life expectancies will start rising faster than we age

· In about 20 years 100% of our energy will come from clean and renewable sources, and a computer will pass the Turing Test by carrying on a conversation that is indistinguishable from a human’s.

 

The only reason some of us may find these predictions startling is due to linear thinking. How many people could have predicted the existence of the internet as it is now even 15 years ago (ok Kurzweil did). The internet already existed at this point, yet its exponential growth wasn't accounted for. How many of us would have foreseen a conversation like the one we are having, even 10 years ago?

 

Remember the time of no internet, no cellphone, no downloadable porn?? it wasn't that long ago

 

Think exponential and Kurzweil begins to seem plausible.

 

the other stuff also betrays willful blindness. No wrinkles coz botox is here and it'll only get cheaper.

 

People who are 100 years old, may today need 24 hour nursing, but in the future they may well be working and be happy to do so (as opposed to being vegetables chained to a cardiac monitor).

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Raymond Kurzweil has predicted that in 15 years life expectancy will rise faster than you are aging, leading to a sort of immortality, where people would still die but it would be accidental.

I think it's rather going to be like: Time is money and vice versa: Money is life-time. However, it may also be that most of us have realized by then that money is nothing but a pyramid scheme, so Kurzweil could actually be right.

 

 

Much more importantly around 2029 we shall have the singularity, when man-machine intelligence shall have evolved to such a level that today we cannot even imagine what it will be like; the era of Post-humans.

Transhuman olympics 2029: More doping. More technology. I am looking forward to that.

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As long as China and India and almost all third world countries pollute our rivers and oceans, STOP: The elite city of San Diego lets untreated raw sewage run into the Pacific Ocean, we humans will soon poison ourselves.

 

Doubt my predictions:

Travel down the Mekong or Yangtze.

Stand at a California beach after a heavy rain washed all the trash into the Pacific.

 

Add more horror stories as you like.

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Ahh but in 15 years that won't matter a damn because we will have waste disposal robots that suck up the rubbish and poop solar energy ;)

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