What happens if Scotland gains independence?

825 posts in this topic

 

Plus although a lot of people may be in favour of the idea of independance. I doubt many of them would like the idea of having to vote for the Loonie lefties that are the SNP. That lot couldn't organise a pissup in a brewery.

hmm, the polls at the moment show that the SNP are the most popular political party in Scotland with 33% of the vote. I should stres that I am very very far from being an SNP supporter but dismissing them as 'loonies' is a little unrealistic.

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NB, he was James VI. And incidentally he neither supported or advocated any union of parliaments for Scotland. That did not actually happen until long after he was dead and gone.

im at my desk and dont have a million refernce books available, and i just of to lunch. i was only recognising the fact that ... oh what the fuck i really have no time for this.

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Maybe loonies is a bit harsh but they've never convinced me that they have any idea of how they intend to raise enough cash to keep the economy afloat other than rely on "oil money" which is an untenable situation at best.

 

Plus all that Sean Connery voice over shit that they do in their promos really riles me. I don't need preched to by no tax exile...33% sounds high to me, I could be wrong but I always get the impression that they have farily high representation between elections but when it comes to the real deal then the voters back off.

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Of course scotland could survive if it were independant, very little would change really as the lines we draw on the map have less and less relevance as time goes on. Particularly if we are talking about a nation thats already in the EU. The relationship between Scotland and the rest of the UK would I imagine be so close as to make the concept of independance barely noticable.

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I think at base that is part of my problem with this. In essence I am an agnostic over independence and could see it work. But I have a visceral dislike of the SNP and am appalled that an independent Scotland would start life under an SNP government. That factor alone means I could not vote yes in a referendum for independence.

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My view:

If Scotland get's independence (unlikely that this would be voted in esp as expats like me would get a vote). The country would go bankrupt like the last time when it was forced into union with England. The IMF would set clear financial target for country causing all the old style socialists great pain. The unemployment rate would go up dramatically as the public sector was cut hugely (it is gigantic in Scotland as there is no thriving economy, banked by UK). Taxes would rise causing pain to the population and the EU would need to step in to pay. New political parties more economically minded would start up, shifting the country from socialist one to a more balanced- state control vs individual freedom one. In the long term it might go Ireland's successful way.

 

The only time Scotland had a chance at independence was when all the oil money was available in the early 70's. The Labour Govt at the time led by Wilson/Callaghan with Benn did their best and succeeded to kill this as it would have prevented them access to oil money so they could waste it on keeping the UK as a dying Socialist state (note nationalised businesses were: Car production/steel production/telephone comms/airlines/aircraft/aircraft engines/coal production/railways/health service/Gas/Water/electricity/all local waste collection/bus transport/oil companies etc and Benn wanted to expand this dead/ non competitive Govt control.

It could have transformed Scotland into a country like Norway is today (after the usual financial mismanagement Scottish politicians are so good at; see parliament building screw up...)

 

Note: as for comment previously that Scotand is being paid for by England. Yes broadly true now but not in the 70's and 80's because of that oil which propped many a Govt up. Should the NE of England/Devon+Cornwall/Wales be dumped as well cos London is "paying"?

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This isn't addressed to anyone in particular, but if you want facts and figures rather than made up on the spot guesses, the best place is Scottish Economic Report. If you understand it, and especially if you feel that it makes any clear statement about whether Scotland is better in the UK or otherwise, well good luck to you.

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thanks for that Ben. For those who have been unduly negative about the Scottish economy, I sugest reading this overview from the start

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I always get the impression that they have farily high representation between elections but when it comes to the real deal then the voters back off.

i think this is probably spot on, actually. This always used to be the case for the LibDems as well, they always underperformed in General Elections compared to the polls in between.

 

 

Of course scotland could survive if it were independant

I don't doubt that it would, i think the debate is whether Scotland and the rest of the UK are better off together than apart.

 

 

very little would change really as the lines we draw on the map have less and less relevance as time goes on.

Actually, I think a lot might change depending on what you believe will happen economically.

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i think this is probably spot on, actually. This always used to be the case for the LibDems as well, they always underperformed in General Elections compared to the polls in between.

The difference being that the LibDems are a third party both North and South of the border while the SNP have been the official opposition and second biggest party in Holyrood since the inception of the devolved parliament. Most commentators felt that the SNP leadership fudged the last election but Alex Salmond has returned to the leadership and is much cannier than his predecessors - e is also much more popular with the electorate than the lacklustre first minister.

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possibly. they might be seen at the left of the new centre. It might also set them back. They also have quite a few Scottish MPs and are likely to profit from Labour's demise in Scotland at future eelction (but probably not as much as the SNP).

 

post-1931-1157971094.png

Orange = LibDem

Red = Labour

Blue = Conservative

Green = Plaid Cymru

Yellow = SNP

Light Green in NI = Sinn Fein ( I think)

The reddish colour in NI = Ulster Unionists ( I think) maybe someone can help on NI?

The little purple bit is the Ulster Unionists they only have one seat. The red is the DUP (big Ian's Party), the light green is the sdlp and the dark Green is Sinn Fein. That is why the renewal of devolution in NI is dependent on Sinn Fein and the DUP talking. They are the two largest parties.

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@OG

 

People in NI are entitled to dual citizenship. Interestingly up until about two years ago an Irish citizen living in Southern Ireland would have been immediately entitled to the vote if they moved to Northern ireland or the UK. Hypothetically that meant Irish citizens could have moved to NI and a majority for a united ireland could have been attained overnight. That is why they closed this loophole but it is notable that there was never the will to take advantage of this. That is why I believe there will never be a united Ireland in my lifetime because although the percentages for and against Union and a United Ireland are quite close in NI itself, the determination to ensure a united ireland is grounded in the republic and it appears that the majority there see NI as too great a burden to take on.

 

@BTC

 

No intention of hijacking this thread. I just wanted to clear up the few grey areas OG had on NI

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I think a lot might change depending on what you believe will happen economically

Yip.

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What happens if Scotland gets independence?

Hell would freeze over and Satan would challenge Bush and Blair to a snowball fight. Winner gets to ride a flying pig. :lol:

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On second thoughts, maybe Scottish independance is a good thing. At least the rest of us wouldn't have to be ruled by Scottish politicans any more. In fact, we would almost certainly have a Conservative government without the Scottish MPs. It would take decades for Labour to recover from that.

And being totally selfish, for me that's probably the number one reason I, as somebody English, wouldn't want Scottish independence.

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well that's refreshing - an english person bucking the trend and actually appreciating scotland's contribution to the union. thank you for that :)

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Scottish Executive report is Fucking spin:

Before making comments on rigged reports, it's best to read them, the only growth area is the Govt.

The Scottish economy is becoming a dependancy economy, time the locals got a shock.

This is why unemployment is dropping to the same levels relative to UK. All private sectors dropping but guess what, public sector is booming:

 

"The development of social services policy since devolution has been matched by an increase in resources provided for service delivery by the Scottish Executive. Grant Aided Expenditure allocations ( GAE) for local authority social work services increased by 67 per cent; from £1,200 million in 1999-2000 to £2,007 million in 2006-07 64.

 

This article uses Labour Force Survey ( LFS) data and draws on the Scottish Executive's 2nd Social Services Labour Market Report 65 to highlight key factors in the social services labour market in comparison to the Scottish labour market. The main points are that over the period from 1995 to 2004:

 

"the social services labour force has grown faster than the Scottish labour force;"

 

"Since devolution both social services employment and Scotland-wide employment have risen to the highest levels on record. Social services employment expanded by 44 per cent from 1995-2004, to stand at 138,000. In 2004,Scotland wide employment was 2,414,000, an increase of 7 per cent on 1995. Social services employment was 4.3 per cent of total Scottish employment in 1995, rising to 5.7 per cent of the total in 2004. This rise in social services employment is associated with an increase in resources devoted to the sector, highlighting the important role it has played since devolution.

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er, tartan, what is your point exactly?

 

Do you disagree that there is a fundamental robustness in the Scottish economy?

 

Do you disagree that Edinburgh is Europe's second biggest financial centre after London?

 

Do you disagree that the growth of new industries such as biotechnology and electronics means prospects for the future are also good?

 

Do you disagree that even without the increase in employment of nurses, teachers and social workers, Scotland would still have lower unemployment than most countries in Europe?

 

Do you just hate your country and want to portray it always in a falsely negative light?

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