All things Tesla

203 posts in this topic

3 hours ago, Dembo said:

 

Well Tesla was doing okay up to about September.  I have a few ETFs that are only down 11-12%, whereas Tesla is down 67%. 

 

I have some more money to invest so if someone could just tell me with certainty when we've reached the bottom that'd be great.

 

 

What if You Only Invested at Market Peaks?

 

Why wait for the bottom? If you are investing for long term, don't try and time the market. Get your money in and then ignore the noise for the next 20+ years. Buy regularly. Buy when the market is high. Buy when the market is low.

 

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1 hour ago, almafreya said:

Why wait for the bottom? If you are investing for long term, don't try and time the market. Get your money in and then ignore the noise for the next 20+ years. Buy regularly. Buy when the market is high. Buy when the market is low.

 

Oh such brilliant advice which I followed when I was in my 20's and 30's and 40's. 

 

A bit different when one is living from one's investments.

 

:rolleyes:

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3 hours ago, yesterday said:

I feel sorry for the people who lost money on them. 

 

Losses (or gains) only happen when you sell.

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5 hours ago, catjones said:

 

Losses (or gains) only happen when you sell.

Not necessarily.  They may also happen in cases of bankruptcy, mergers or delistings.

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17 hours ago, Krieg said:

So a Tesla drove over a cliff.    Expect soon Elon saying it was human error, the autopilot disengaged one millisecond before going into the air.

 

Quote

 

The driver of a car that plunged off a cliff in Northern California, seriously wounding two children and a second adult after the 250-foot drop, was arrested on suspicion of attempted murder and child abuse, the California Highway Patrol said Tuesday.

Dharmesh A. Patel of Pasadena will be booked into San Mateo County Jail after he’s released from a hospital, the highway patrol said in a statement. It wasn't immediately known if Patel has an attorney.

“CHP investigators worked throughout the night interviewing witnesses and gathering evidence from the scene,” the highway patrol statement said. “Based on the evidence collected, investigators developed probable cause to believe this incident was an intentional act.”

 

 

here

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Tesla shares are crumbling again.   To make things worse, it seems Elon used shares as collateral when he bought Twitter, so people are wondering what the limit is, because if it is $100 it is getting close and getting margin called might send the shares in a death spiral.

 

Tesla definitely needs Elon out and a proper board.  But probably it won't happen.

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8 hours ago, catjones said:

 

Losses (or gains) only happen when you sell.

Well I have been getting dividends on many shares I own, except for Tesla. The only thing I get from Tesla is Elon smiling as the shares drop and drop

16 hours ago, Dembo said:

 

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5 minutes ago, Krieg said:

Tesla shares are crumbling again.   To make things worse, it seems Elon used shares as collateral when he bought Twitter, so people are wondering what the limit is, because if it is $100 it is getting close and getting margin called might send the shares in a death spiral.

 

Tesla definitely needs Elon out and a proper board.  But probably it won't happen.

 

Nobody trusts Musk to stop selling Tesla stock, like he promised, because he's already broken that promise once.

 

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On 03/01/2023, 16:20:54, fraufruit said:

There is no such thing as autopilot. The driver must keep hands on the wheel and stay alert at all times.

Yep but it helps when the manufacturer doesn´t call it autopilot.

Autopilot | Tesla

"Tesla cars come standard with advanced hardware capable of providing Autopilot features, and full self-driving capabilities—through software updates designed to improve functionality over time"

 

The world is full of people who touch hot things to see how hot they are, cut their toenails with an angle grinder and so on.

If you call something autopilot there are enough fucking idiots that will think it does everything itself.

 

You do have to wonder though why on earth they decided to call it autopilot.

 

 

 

 

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9 hours ago, jeba said:

Not necessarily.  They may also happen in cases of bankruptcy, mergers or delistings.

or nuclear war.

 

I think the topic was TSLA, but you're right, there's always a nit to be picked.

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Autopilot

Autopilot advanced safety and convenience features are designed to assist you with the most burdensome parts of driving. Autopilot introduces new features and improves existing functionality to make your Tesla safer and more capable over time.

Autopilot enables your car to steer, accelerate and brake automatically within its lane.

Current Autopilot features require active driver supervision and do not make the vehicle autonomous.

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22 minutes ago, Krieg said:

Thank you Captain Obvious 

If it was obvious it wouldn't be so misquoted and mistaken.

But, to your point....

 

10 hours ago, Krieg said:

Tesla shares are crumbling again.

 

as we can all see for ourselves...talk about "obvious".

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Actually, the definition of autopilot is to keep a steady course at a steady speed.

That's what Autopilot does. FSD is another thing, but people mix them.

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On 1/4/2023, 10:11:21, Krieg said:

Tesla shares are crumbling again.   To make things worse, it seems Elon used shares as collateral when he bought Twitter, so people are wondering what the limit is, because if it is $100 it is getting close and getting margin called might send the shares in a death spiral.

 

Tesla definitely needs Elon out and a proper board.  But probably it won't happen.

Agree he might sell again (can't happen during January, btw), and I wouldn't trust his word on that (he said he wouldn't sell more within more than a year).

Death spiral... that part I don't agree. Tesla numbers are very good. The only question is the growth rate. Market was counting on 50% growth, and now the question is how much growth. This has more to do with introduction of new models. 2022 was a great year from financial perspective, with great margins, but now the market potential for a 50k car is being reached, so they need a cheap car.

My best guess is the current remodeling of the Model 3 can drop the price by up to $10k, and they will sacrifice their +30% margins (remember they were pushing it high because of post-covid frenziness, this was never meant to be sustainable) to something around 15-20%, meaning another 5k drop in most models. That can sustain the growth until a Model 2 comes up. 

Or... there is no Model 2, and the refreshed Model 3 is to become smaller and cheaper.

 

And the demand issue seems to be mostly in China. In US the new tax credit will give a huge boost, and in Europe there is currently no demand issue. Even in China it's not certain how much this is due to current covid situation, although in the long run I see a financial crisis there.

 

Anyway, it's probably going to be a 2023 bad year for the stock, with slow recovery, and I'm not expecting much this year. I think they might announce the Model 2 this year, and this can lift the stock (or sink it, if the timeline is crap).

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As investment opportunity, everyone knows my general opinion, but on short term I think it's very unclear until earnings call (end of January) and especially the March event, when they show the roadmap. They will definitely have to give dates for a Model 2 or something similar. Question is, what if it only comes in 3-4 years? Market would crush the stock. Even a 2 year timeline is not good. Ideally they would have Cybertruck and refreshed Model 3 by the end of 2023, and a Model 2 by end of 2024.

https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-announces-date-2023-investor-day

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14 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

Agree he might sell again (can't happen during January, btw), and I wouldn't trust his word on that (he said he wouldn't sell more within more than a year).

Death spiral... that part I don't agree. Tesla numbers are very good. The only question is the growth rate. Market was counting on 50% growth, and now the question is how much growth. This has more to do with introduction of new models. 2022 was a great year from financial perspective, with great margins, but now the market potential for a 50k car is being reached, so they need a cheap car.

My best guess is the current remodeling of the Model 3 can drop the price by up to $10k, and they will sacrifice their +30% margins (remember they were pushing it high because of post-covid frenziness, this was never meant to be sustainable) to something around 15-20%, meaning another 5k drop in most models. That can sustain the growth until a Model 2 comes up. 

Or... there is no Model 2, and the refreshed Model 3 is to become smaller and cheaper.

 

And the demand issue seems to be mostly in China. In US the new tax credit will give a huge boost, and in Europe there is currently no demand issue. Even in China it's not certain how much this is due to current covid situation, although in the long run I see a financial crisis there.

 

Anyway, it's probably going to be a 2023 bad year for the stock, with slow recovery, and I'm not expecting much this year. I think they might announce the Model 2 this year, and this can lift the stock (or sink it, if the timeline is crap).

 

 

You are analyzing Tesla shares with normal logic but you are not seeing the real scenario.   For what you usually post I don't think you really follow Elon and his fanbois shenanigans, I assume you do not even post in Twitter that much.

 

From what I see Tesla shares have some abnormalities that make them a bit different, a big chunk of the people with Tesla shares are Elon's fans (and many now ex-fans) and these ones are not uniform, they can be split in several groups.  Elon's crap in the past six months created a lot of turmoil, he alienated a lot of people, specially in the past three months when he started to embrace the Qanon crap and now there is a new Elon fanboi master race that belong to the MAGA side.     If you see the downfall of the Tesla prices you can see that exactly from October is when everything when downhill, while there are many other variables the crap Elon created has a lot to do.   And the problem is there are plenty of other share holders that gave up already on Elon but they are now caged with their shares, because if they sell now they will lose a lot, but they want to sell already.    Plenty of those share holders are not really "serious investors", some just have some S&P500, some even just have Tesla shares and nothing else.   

 

If the shares Elon has as Twitter collateral get margin called, plenty of people who want to sell but are holding with the hope of minimize their loses might panic and sell, they won't have the stomach to see their money draining even more.

 

But only time will say.  

 

 

 

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That logic is flawed because the demand issue is in China, not in Europe nor US. There were some last minute offers in US because some people were holding off for the upcoming tax credit, which will give each new Tesla owner $7.500.

 

Yes, the biggest damage came from Twitter for sure. But Tesla as a company is in great shape. The best would be for Elon to appoint a new Tesla CEO, I've been saying it for 2 years, my favorite candidate was Herbert Diess (now at Infineon). Elon could continue as CTO, for example. This has a small probability of happening soon, and it's my best case scenario.

 

I agree there is the risk Elon sells more, but somehow I think he'll make twitter profitable within a year or so. Twitter was a bloated company. Problem is, it's being done at Tesla's expense.

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7 hours ago, Krieg said:

Plenty of those share holders are not really "serious investors", some just have some S&P500, some even just have Tesla shares and nothing else.   

 

Gee, what fantastic insight access you have.  Can you share your source?  Can you do investor profiles on other stockholders?

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