All things Tesla

[Krieg 14,924]

11 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

Agree, been saying they should have a new CEO since the Bitcoin bullshit, and especially since the Twitter bullshit.

 

But Tesla's future is still good.

 

I hope so because I plan to buy the dip very soon.   

[MikeMelga 7,242]

My average price per stock is 34€, so I'm comfortable. I also want to buy in the dip, but already put way too much money lately, at 174€ and 220€.

I'm waiting for FED's announcement tonight. They will probably make a 0.5pp raise on interest, and give an outlook for 2023. I don't want to risk buying today, it can drop a lot tomorrow, even if FED news are good.

Either that or I buy some other stock and diversify.

[catjones 1,658]

5 hours ago, fraufruit said:

I ndon't know what I would do if I were you. Sorry.

 

There will always be a "better" next version.

[DanglingPointer 29]

Whenever I buy, it dips again. I bought at 220, 210, 200, 190, 180, 170 and 160. I even sold some of my other stocks where I booked Profit to enter Tesla while it dips. 

Dont know now what to do, but May be if it dips further buy few more.

 

@MikeMelga Average price of 34. Then you dont need to worry. Just keep buying dips and enjoy the weather

 

[yesterday 1,979]

I have been considering buying some, but I am un decided at what price, somewhere around 110 to 135, is my current target. But even then, they still seem over valued. If final year sales and profits do not continue, like they have so far, maybe the share price will drop further. But maybe thats just my hope so I can buy some for the longer term.

 

There are many other choices out there now, some much cheaper than a Tesla, and ticket price for a car always talks loudest.  Look at the MG 4 on youtube, its very good value.- its a China brand now, but boy o boy is it a bargain,  MM said a while a go, that China will dominate the EV market, and with cars like this, I can agree.

 

Not sure how Musk will be forced out, if thats even possible and people should know that a new boss may take a different view on things like trying to make FSD really work. Musk for all his faults has tried to push what can be done and been successful in some areas, without a man like that in charge, Tesla could slip into a company that just coins the technology it has.

 

[MikeMelga 7,242]

3 hours ago, DanglingPointer said:

Whenever I buy, it dips again. I bought at 220, 210, 200, 190, 180, 170 and 160. I even sold some of my other stocks where I booked Profit to enter Tesla while it dips. 

Dont know now what to do, but May be if it dips further buy few more.

 

@MikeMelga Average price of 34. Then you dont need to worry. Just keep buying dips and enjoy the weather

 

Yeah, with the news that part of the drop was cause by Musk selling this week because of paying interest for Twitter purchase, I feel it's getting close to bottom. Holding off a day or two. My problem is if I add, let's say 10k€, it is almost meaningless to my total.

Still feels painful losing in 6 months money equivalent to more than 10 years of savings... anyway, been with Tesla for long, it dropped much more before.

 

I think the bottom should be above 120. The PE ratio is just riddiculous at this point.

[MikeMelga 7,242]

2 hours ago, yesterday said:

I have been considering buying some, but I am un decided at what price, somewhere around 110 to 135, is my current target. But even then, they still seem over valued. If final year sales and profits do not continue, like they have so far, maybe the share price will drop further. But maybe thats just my hope so I can buy some for the longer term.

Look at the PE. It's currently undervalued, by any metric.

 

2 hours ago, yesterday said:

 

There are many other choices out there now, some much cheaper than a Tesla, and ticket price for a car always talks loudest.  Look at the MG 4 on youtube, its very good value.- its a China brand now, but boy o boy is it a bargain,  MM said a while a go, that China will dominate the EV market, and with cars like this, I can agree.

Agree, it's a bargain and I think in 2-3 years the invasion will be felt. Right now it's not so easy for them to export in large quantities, and internal market still satisfies them.

 

2 hours ago, yesterday said:

 

Not sure how Musk will be forced out, if thats even possible and people should know that a new boss may take a different view on things like trying to make FSD really work. Musk for all his faults has tried to push what can be done and been successful in some areas, without a man like that in charge, Tesla could slip into a company that just coins the technology it has.

I have a feeling he might appoint another CEO.

Regarding "FSD really work", this has nothing to do with Musk. That project is progressing, with visible results, and nothing a new CEO can do to change much.

[yesterday 1,979]

33 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

Look at the PE. It's currently undervalued, by any metric.

 

According to most sites, Tesla has a PE ratio of about 50, that is high for the shares I buy. 

I normally think of 10 or 12, for legacy companies, and around 20 to 25 for cutting edge Tech companies.

I normally like to buy undervalued shares and wait for the rest of the market to see that, and buy in. I am quite a traditional investor. 

 

And you can read many articles about what a good PE value is. most say around <10-15, Tesla is now where near that, but has improved in the last 2 years by a big extent. 

I did buy a very small number when they dropped to 180, unfortunately , and am looking to buy more if the prices drops again.

 

 

Quote

Agree, it's a bargain and I think in 2-3 years the invasion will be felt. Right now it's not so easy for them to export in large quantities, and internal market still satisfies them.

 

The problem I have with buying large numbers of Tesla and holding for the future, is that more and more competition is coming, this must cause Tesla to be looked at in a different way, when the "invasion" comes, Tesla will not be so special anymore. Sure I make mistakes, but I do not see Tesla getting back to the valuation it had at the beginning of the year  ever ...  I know I can be wrong and its OK that you dis agree with me, just sayin. 

 

 

[Krieg 14,924]

I don't think Tesla's value is just the cars, I as well think the usual suspects and the Chinese will catch up and eat Tesla's cake.   But I believe their real value is in the manufacturing processes.  I think Musk's knowledge in everything he claims to know mostly does not exist, but I do believe he probably is really the guy who knows the most about manufacturing in the whole planet.  Tesla will become a key provider of parts for different industries, including cars.  And they will keep a niche market segment of cars completely under their ruling but it won't be that important compared to the rest.

[yesterday 1,979]

But if we all agree, that Tesla may not be the market leader or have high margins in the next 5 years or becomes a niche, why do you think that Tesla will once again become a 1TN dollar company ? What path do you see Tesla becoming again a 1TN worth firm ?. I cannot see it

 

OK, if Tesla crack FSD, then maybe 

[MikeMelga 7,242]

11 hours ago, yesterday said:

 

According to most sites, Tesla has a PE ratio of about 50, that is high for the shares I buy. 

No, it's 43 today. And if you look at forward PE, it's 28. Bear in mind that for a fast growing company you should look at forward PE.

 

11 hours ago, yesterday said:

And you can read many articles about what a good PE value is. most say around <10-15, Tesla is now where near that, but has improved in the last 2 years by a big extent. 

I did buy a very small number when they dropped to 180, unfortunately , and am looking to buy more if the prices drops again.

No, there is no single "good" PE. It depends on two things: margins and growth. A company with small margins and small growth like Amazon should have a small PE (it doesn't) but a fast growing and/or high margin company should have a much higher PE.

Considering Tesla is growing fast and has a margin like a tech company, their forward PE should be above 50, and easily justifiable at 100, if interest rates drop.

 

11 hours ago, yesterday said:

The problem I have with buying large numbers of Tesla and holding for the future, is that more and more competition is coming, this must cause Tesla to be looked at in a different way, when the "invasion" comes, Tesla will not be so special anymore. Sure I make mistakes, but I do not see Tesla getting back to the valuation it had at the beginning of the year  ever ...  I know I can be wrong and its OK that you dis agree with me, just sayin. 

Sure, but competition will be the chinese. And I think there will be room for all, especially when they focus on the cheap cars. True competition will only be when EV market matures, within 5 years. Until then, growth.

[MikeMelga 7,242]

8 hours ago, yesterday said:

But if we all agree, that Tesla may not be the market leader or have high margins in the next 5 years or becomes a niche, why do you think that Tesla will once again become a 1TN dollar company ? What path do you see Tesla becoming again a 1TN worth firm ?. I cannot see it

We don't all agree. It won't be niche. It has the potential for 20% of the market. I think in a few years they will start producing power trains, batteries and SW for other manufacturers.

Still say my dream car would be a Mercedes with powertrain, battery and SW from Tesla.

 

[catjones 1,658]

2 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

my dream car would be a Mercedes with powertrain, battery and SW from Tesla.

 

Why would that still be a benz?

[catjones 1,658]

For those of you with nationalistic cash to spare, Sono needs you

https://sonomotors.com/

[MikeMelga 7,242]

9 hours ago, catjones said:

 

Why would that still be a benz?

There are some very nice features, like turning radius, paint quality, door quality, etc. Also if that idiot keeps ruining the brand, at some point it's not cool to ride a tesla any more.

I'm always thinking it can't get any worst, but everyday he does something more stupid. One of these days he'll show his dick on twitter, and after that I think it's over.

[fraufruit 41,938]

Our friend canceled his Tesla Y that he ordered from China because it just didn't come. Bought himself a Mercedes EQA from a Mercedes employee who drove it for a year. He is very happy with it. They really are beautiful cars.

[El Jeffo 42,120]

On 12/15/2022, 11:32:28, MikeMelga said:

The PE ratio is just riddiculous at this point.

 

Take out a d and I agree. A P/E of ~44 is ridiculous for a high-volume car manufacturer. Subaru has a P/E of 13.4, Nissan is 10.7.

 

Aside from that, Elon seems determined to drive Twitter into the ground and is selling tons of stock as a result, although he claimed earlier this year - in a major announcement - that he was done selling shares for the year. That in itself could trigger (yet another) investigation by the SEC. Tesla's reputation is taking a huge hit from all of Elon's online antics and that shows no sign of improving.

 

He's also stripping key people from Tesla to try and salvage something of the now-barbecued bird he overpaid for. And he's facing a class-action lawsuit from Tesla buyers who are tired of him overpromising his Autopilot and full self-driving vaporware.

 

If you bought shares early and cheap, you're free to hodl, but anyone buying the dip right now risks falling into a bottomless pit.

 

 

Just my 2 euro-cents.

[MikeMelga 7,242]

2 hours ago, El Jeffo said:

 

Take out a d and I agree. A P/E of ~44 is ridiculous for a high-volume car manufacturer. Subaru has a P/E of 13.4, Nissan is 10.7.

 

Subaru has a margin of 5% on their cars. Tesla has 30%. Tesla is 6x more profitable than Subaru per car. People compare Tesla with a Tech company also because it has margins close to tech companies, which have much higher PEs.

And Tesla is growing 50% a year. How much is Subaru?

[El Jeffo 42,120]

Counterpoint: https://www.wired.co.uk/article/tesla-vacancies-staff-shortage-berlin

 

It's hard to grow 50% per year when nobody wants to work for you anymore. As I stated above, Elon's Grand Twitter Adventure is only reinforcing that. I know I'm not going to convince a die-hard Muskrat like yourself, but I don't think people should necessarily follow your investment advice either.

[catjones 1,658]

5 hours ago, El Jeffo said:

It's hard to grow 50% per year when nobody wants to work for you anymore.

 

a bit of an overstatement.  if it were true, Musk Industries would be closed.  All industries worldwide have skilled labor shortages and people don't leave because of one reason.

 

 

5 hours ago, El Jeffo said:

I don't think people should necessarily follow your investment advice either.

 

I haven't heard MM give investment advice.  I've heard him rationalise TSLA financials, technology, competition and short-term future, and his own investments, buy I don't recall him saying "Buy".