Leoparden und Marder for Ukraine

[slammer 877]

6 hours ago, fraufruit said:

[slammer 877]

1 hour ago, yesterday said:

 

Thats rightl, according to 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Port_of_Novorossiysk    Novorossiysk Sea Port (Russian: Новороссийский морской порт, NSP) is one of the largest ports in the Black Sea basin

 

https://www.ajot.com/premium/ajot-russias-port-of-novorossiysk-expanding-to-handle-larger-volumes-of-grains  -  Novorossiysk  is the fourth busiest seaport in Europe, so I guess its ahead of Sevastapol 

 

https://www.logistik-express.com/construction-of-a-deepwater-berth-in-novorossiysk-has-commenced/   - construction of a deepwater berth in novorossiysk has commenced, so ships of a greater size can be docked.

 

But at least your given up on the fact Russia does not have any warm water sea ports to, yes they have them but Russia still wants more.

 

 

 

Not getting your point here. What has size got to do with things. Novospellchecker isn’t the home of the Blacksea fleet. Sewastopol is. 
And there is no way in any shape or form where Russia will allow warships of a foreign fleet to use the Harbour. Can you imagine warships flying the Stars and Stripes over Sevastopol? It would be the same as if China were to turn up in Pearl Harbor and tell the Americans to fornicate off.

But I now see where you and others are having problems understanding the situation, you are simply not seeing the connection between the Blacksea fleet and the need for the Krim to remain in Russian hands. That is what this is all about, nothing more, nothing less.

[MikeMelga 7,242]

17 minutes ago, slammer said:

Not getting your point here. What has size got to do with things. Novospellchecker isn’t the home of the Blacksea fleet. Sewastopol is. 

At this rate, there won't be a blacksea fleet in a couple of months. Things change, they can move elsewhere or even rent out Sevastopol, as they were doing before 2014.

 

17 minutes ago, slammer said:

And there is no way in any shape or form where Russia will allow warships of a foreign fleet to use the Harbour. Can you imagine warships flying the Stars and Stripes over Sevastopol? It would be the same as if China were to turn up in Pearl Harbor and tell the Americans to fornicate off.

Why would they? Before 2014, Russians were using it. Simple.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partition_Treaty_on_the_Status_and_Conditions_of_the_Black_Sea_Fleet

 

17 minutes ago, slammer said:

But I now see where you and others are having problems understanding the situation, you are simply not seeing the connection between the Blacksea fleet and the need for the Krim to remain in Russian hands. That is what this is all about, nothing more, nothing less.

What I see is you're trying to find very poor excuses.

[MikeMelga 7,242]

More and more reports of Russian retreat from Kherson. Maybe they got smart.

It was a matter of weeks until they would be surrounded and could potentially have 40.000 troops dead or captured, along with a lot of equipment.

Now the question is how they will move the equipment to the south, without good bridges...

[fraufruit 41,940]

 I saw on CNN that they may be pretending to retreat. Russian soldiers in civilian clothes. Russian flag down on one government building but not the others. They have reporters on the ground. We will see. I believe nothing.

[slammer 877]

3 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

At this rate, there won't be a blacksea fleet in a couple of months. Things change, they can move elsewhere or even rent out Sevastopol, as they were doing before 2014.

 

Why would they? Before 2014, Russians were using it. Simple.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partition_Treaty_on_the_Status_and_Conditions_of_the_Black_Sea_Fleet

 

What I see is you're trying to find very poor excuses.

3 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

At this rate, there won't be a blacksea fleet in a couple of months. Things change, they can move elsewhere or even rent out Sevastopol, as they were doing before 2014.

 

Why would they? Before 2014, Russians were using it. Simple.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partition_Treaty_on_the_Status_and_Conditions_of_the_Black_Sea_Fleet

 

What I see is you're trying to find very poor excuses.

You are kind of proving my point here.

First of all such treaties are not worth the toner they are printed with.

Then, as long as UA was Russia-Friendly everything was hunky-dory. Just look at the timeline, the treaty became toilet paper as soon as the US backed revolution came about after the UA´s started muttering about "special relations" with Nato in 1997.

My points are quite valid.

I´m kind of wondering, if you look at the global conflict points, in context with the looming end of an oil based economy, a coming climate catastrophe, the decline of the US as a global power and the rise of China, if we are seeing the major players getting their chess pieces into position for another "Great Game" 

I´ll happily discuss this topic, but on another thread.

[MikeMelga 7,242]

2 hours ago, fraufruit said:

 I saw on CNN that they may be pretending to retreat. Russian soldiers in civilian clothes. Russian flag down on one government building but not the others. They have reporters on the ground. We will see. I believe nothing.

Everyone is saying that, but it makes no sense. This is not mediaeval ages, Ukrainians won't just all march down the avenue to be surprised by soldiers dressed as peasants. They would slowly take village by village, and send recon ahead.

 

[MikeMelga 7,242]

1 hour ago, slammer said:

You are kind of proving my point here.

First of all such treaties are not worth the toner they are printed with.

Then, as long as UA was Russia-Friendly everything was hunky-dory. Just look at the timeline, the treaty became toilet paper as soon as the US backed revolution came about after the UA´s started muttering about "special relations" with Nato in 1997.

My points are quite valid.

No, your points is we must please the giant, otherwise he will crush us.

 

1 hour ago, slammer said:

I´m kind of wondering, if you look at the global conflict points, in context with the looming end of an oil based economy, a coming climate catastrophe, the decline of the US as a global power and the rise of China, if we are seeing the major players getting their chess pieces into position for another "Great Game" 

I´ll happily discuss this topic, but on another thread.

Actually, I think China is currently close to a local peak. I think they are about to have a massive crisis. And the dictator in charge hasn't done anything good for china in the past 10 years.

Regarding climate catastrophe, I think there will be problems for a few years, but we'll bring it back on track until 2030. All those studies fail to account for impact of battery systems, solar power and massive adoption of EVs. These 3 factors combined can dramatically reduce emissions on energy  production and transportation.

[wien4ever 446]

The whole thing is very messy - from start to finish. Crimea was 'only' part of Ukraine since 1954.  It was transferred from Russian Republic to the Ukrainian Republic, by Kruschev - a very controversial and politically motivated gesture on his part, that Russians regretted ever since (mind you this was not decided democratically back in those days! hence the bitterness - but is it worth killing over? probably not but hey we got this point today from a mistakes made East and West). Add to that NATO expansion after the fall of the USSR beyond the past promises of "not an inch more" gradually raising the suspicions and frustrating the Russians (With NATO going so far as announcing in 2008 that Ukraine and Georgia would eventually join NATO!). At the same time growing nationalism fed by Putin's growing influence in politics (a self-reinforcing feedback loop seeing him get even more power). Oligarchs (plunderers of the states' resources with dubious white-washig self-made man stories)  tried to dethrone Putin using media and failed. Funny, Putin was actually somewhat 'moderate' in the early years (well, as moderate/sane as any sociopathic FSB agent could be), even offering the possibility of Russia joining NATO sincere or not. Even in his early career he said that the Constitution should never be changed as it would be terrible for Russia.  The same guy then changed the Constitution a decade later to make it possible for him to be president for life. With the growing resentment and distrust between the West and Russia, the Ukrainians have been caught in the middle, as pawns in a tug of war between the West and Russia. The problems getting worse as the meddling from both Russia and USA got more intensified in the last 10 years. Unfortunately, our American "diplomats" are (typically) uneducated about european matters (or any foreign matters- see Iraq/Afghanistan), and in their hubris planned to "flip Ukraine". But it turns out "flipping Ukraine" to the west would not be that easy - as the eastern part of Ukraine has been heavily influenced by Russia (effectively Russian in demographics, language, and culture) , while the western part (from Kiev to Lviv) did look toward the west. The voting patterns in the regions make that clear. Seeing where things were headed Putin pulled "a fast one" and took Crimea and Donbass, most likely hoping to get a settlement. 

 

What I would like to ask both sides is, is all this worth it for the lives killed and injured? Unfortunately neither side was more imaginative or willing to compromise to a peaceful solution. Putin is guilty for starting the war, but the West cynically pushed it to this point and now provides the weapons to fight while Ukraine provides the bodies. Both sides are acting horribly in my opinion. Nobody really cares about the Ukrainians in all this.

 

 

On what motivates Russia:

 

 

[mtbiking 1,880]

18 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

Everyone is saying that, but it makes no sense. This is not mediaeval ages, Ukrainians won't just all march down the avenue to be surprised by soldiers dressed as peasants. They would slowly take village by village, and send recon ahead.

 

yep, they were well trained in the last decade. The way Ukrainians move and advance is recognizable as 100% NATO standard, not some guys with machine guns in a Jeep.

[slammer 877]

19 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

No, your points is we must please the giant, otherwise he will crush us.

 

 

No! NO and no! You are misunderstanding, along with a lot of other people and this is the dangerous part. I wager that you are seeing this war as the opening shots of a return to Imperial Russia or CCCP redux. It´s not. This is Russia looking after Russian interests, the thing is they don´t align with what the Americans want and now we have war in Europe.

Putin is a technocrat and he knows to the last minute detail what Russia can and can´t do and he knows that there is no way on this rock that Russia in it´s contemporary form can again be a world power, a regional one yes, just as we are seeing.

[MikeMelga 7,242]

11 minutes ago, slammer said:

No! NO and no! You are misunderstanding, along with a lot of other people and this is the dangerous part. I wager that you are seeing this war as the opening shots of a return to Imperial Russia or CCCP redux. It´s not. This is Russia looking after Russian interests, the thing is they don´t align with what the Americans want and now we have war in Europe.

Of course not! This war is an ego trip and finding an external enemy.

Looking after Russian's interest would be to use oil & gas money to modernize Russian's economy. A harbor in Crimea is not.

[MikeMelga 7,242]

36 minutes ago, wien4ever said:

The whole thing is very messy - from start to finish. Crimea was 'only' part of Ukraine since 1954.  It was transferred from Russian Republic to the Ukrainian Republic, by Kruschev

Let's not go that way. We can also say Crimea was not Russian to start with, so for that logic, it should be Turkish. Or more recently, it should be for the Crimean Tartars, that were relocated by the soviets...

Is anyone in Germany still demanding France returns Alsace-Lorraine?

 

36 minutes ago, wien4ever said:

What I would like to ask both sides is, is all this worth it for the lives killed and injured? Unfortunately neither side was more imaginative or willing to compromise to a peaceful solution.

Your argument completely ignores all the other areas occupied by the russians. This is not just about Crimea. It's about the whole Ukraine not being in Russian hands. Yes, it is worth it!

And what peaceful solution are you talking about? From day one Putin targeted total capitulation!

 

36 minutes ago, wien4ever said:

Putin is guilty for starting the war, but the West cynically pushed it to this point and now provides the weapons to fight while Ukraine provides the bodies. Both sides are acting horribly in my opinion. Nobody really cares about the Ukrainians in all this.

No, no, no. YOU and people with your mindset are behaving horribly!

DON'T BE A USEFUL IDIOT!

 

[MikeMelga 7,242]

The potential to a trap has been further explored:

Could be blowing up the dam when Ukrainians are in the valley. This can be easily handled by first taking the dam and searching underwater for explosives. Of course they can still blow it up with missiles, so it would be better for Ukraine not to send significant troops to the valley. Holding the dam should be top priority.

 

Could also be to stage a civilian massacre and blame Ukrainians.

 

Also other theories say there could be an agreement with the Ukrainians, to let them cross the river in exchange for returning the city and not blowing the dam. But I find it hard to believe.

[wien4ever 446]

So it's all worth it to you then? Should we go full WW3 over this? How many people need to die?

 

I'm asking for balanced perspective and peaceful solutions (there are many that both sides could have arrived to before escalating to this point) and you are shouting here to see this through to the bloody end. And I'm the useful idiot?  

 

Sorry but you are sounding like a war monger. And a useful idiot to the military industrial complex.

 

Let's just hope something peaceful happens soon (Putin gets assassinated or whatever), anything to end it peacefully. 

[MikeMelga 7,242]

3 minutes ago, wien4ever said:

So it's all worth it to you then? Should we go full WW3 over this? How many people need to die?

There won't be WW3. And yes, it's worth it, because if you don't stand firm now, there will be the same shit in border countries next!

 

3 minutes ago, wien4ever said:

 

I'm asking for balanced perspective and peaceful solutions and you are shouting here to see this through to the bloody end. And I'm the useful idiot?  

WHAT FUCKING PEACEFUL SOLUTIONS? Don't be a useful idiot, there are NONE!

[murphaph 9,647]

1 hour ago, slammer said:

No! NO and no! You are misunderstanding, along with a lot of other people and this is the dangerous part. I wager that you are seeing this war as the opening shots of a return to Imperial Russia or CCCP redux. It´s not. This is Russia looking after Russian interests, the thing is they don´t align with what the Americans want and now we have war in Europe.

Putin is a technocrat and he knows to the last minute detail what Russia can and can´t do and he knows that there is no way on this rock that Russia in it´s contemporary form can again be a world power, a regional one yes, just as we are seeing.

I think you grossly overestimate the capabilities of Vladimir Putin. He has surrounded himself with yes men. The classic error of the dictator. They have been telling him what he wanted to hear about Russian military capability for years and he believed their lies.

[murphaph 9,647]

Ukraine is our last chance to fight this war by proxy. If we cave in Putin will quite likely take a nibble at Lithuania and that's straight to WWIII. 

[pmd 685]

7 hours ago, murphaph said:

Ukraine is our last chance to fight this war by proxy. If we cave in Putin will quite likely take a nibble at Lithuania and that's straight to WWIII. 

 

Yes, you have the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad here - this is the only year round ice free port in the Baltic but an area now bordered by 2 NATO states.

[slammer 877]

9 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

Of course not! This war is an ego trip and finding an external enemy.

Looking after Russian's interest would be to use oil & gas money to modernize Russian's economy. A harbor in Crimea is not.

Well Russia tried that, and they tried so very hard. However the US still looked at Russia as the enemy and yanked them over the table every time they could. But still Russia made deals with the EU, especially with Germany, they made deals with former CCCP member states. In fact with anybody willing.

Do you remember Putin´s speech in the Bundestag in 2001, where he states that the cold war is over and that this new Russia wants trade and commerce with their former foes? I think that Putin was sincere. What we are now seeing is "Plan B" 

I think you are seeing this too black and white, maybe take a step back and look at the bigger picture.