My natural gas rate doubled

61 posts in this topic

The daily gas prices were negative yesterday due to the law of supply and demand (excess supply, reservoirs full). I hope someone made a screenshot of it and sent it to Putin with the caption: “the free market economy says hi, biatch”*
 

*”and by the way, how are your airplanes faring?”

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I am trying to decide if I should stick with my Grundversorger and pay a non-fixed price of 13,55 Cent/kWh (could go up or down), or get a contract around 20 Cent/kWh. I can afford the higher price, and the security would be nice. And if the price does stay low, I won't feel bad because I'll be making a decision based only on what I know now.

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9 hours ago, jamiegw said:

I am trying to decide if I should stick with my Grundversorger and pay a non-fixed price of 13,55 Cent/kWh (could go up or down), or get a contract around 20 Cent/kWh. I can afford the higher price, and the security would be nice. And if the price does stay low, I won't feel bad because I'll be making a decision based only on what I know now.

When could you get out of the contract?

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1 hour ago, jeba said:

When could you get out of the contract?

The new contract would be for 12 months. I don't have an existing contract, so I can switch immediately (2 week notice period).

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14 hours ago, jamiegw said:

I am trying to decide if I should stick with my Grundversorger and pay a non-fixed price of 13,55 Cent/kWh (could go up or down), or get a contract around 20 Cent/kWh. I can afford the higher price, and the security would be nice. And if the price does stay low, I won't feel bad because I'll be making a decision based only on what I know now.

 

I tend to look at fixed rates another way. It's a question of security vs. risk. That's something everyone feels differently on. Personally I consider what is the downside risk I would be unable to meet. So let's say they did not bring in a price brake in the UK as an example. Prices there were set to be around 5000 Euros as of January 2023. For comparison a full British state pension is 10,800 Euros. Clearly as a pensioner, this risk would likely be unaffordable.

 

Fixed rates available today, reflect the current market conditions. An expected rise or fall in wholesale gas prices, is priced into any fixed rate. Thus picking a fixed rate ensures you do not suffer from any unforeseen or unlikely conditions. Suppose for example 'someone' blows up the Norway gas pipeline. Likely not priced into any fixed deal. What will be priced in, is that we will pay hugely for LNG compared to pipeline gas and this is unlikely to change any time soon, unless Russian/Ukraine agree some deal to end the war.

 

If you are paying 13.5 and a fix is 20, then the new price would need to go to above 26.5c (20-13.5=6.5c) for a significant time period over the next 12 months. Given Germany may (yet to transpire) introduce an 80% fix at around this 13.5c rate as from March 2023 I personally would not make a fix. 

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There's also the fact that you do cannot go straight back into the Grundversorgung from being in a contract. You first land in the generally much more expensive Ersatzversorgung for up to three months. Something that should be factored in to any decision to leave the Grundversorgung. 

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21 minutes ago, murphaph said:

There's also the fact that you do cannot go straight back into the Grundversorgung from being in a contract. You first land in the generally much more expensive Ersatzversorgung for up to three months. Something that should be factored in to any decision to leave the Grundversorgung. 

 

As the new owner, I am assuming we will go in to Grunversorgung, and not Ersatzversorgung. We don't have any contracts at our current residence (living with parents). We don't know what contract the previous owner had, but I understand that if they did have a contract, we won't inherit it.

 

57 minutes ago, scook17 said:

If you are paying 13.5 and a fix is 20, then the new price would need to go to above 26.5c (20-13.5=6.5c) for a significant time period over the next 12 months. Given Germany may (yet to transpire) introduce an 80% fix at around this 13.5c rate as from March 2023 I personally would not make a fix. 

 

Yes I am generally happy to pay extra for some security. Here is an article outlining the relief plan. Thanks for the tip:

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/german-gas-commission-wants-one-off-payment-now-price-break-next-year-2022-10-09/

 

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1 hour ago, jamiegw said:

 

As the new owner, I am assuming we will go in to Grunversorgung, and not Ersatzversorgung. We don't have any contracts at our current residence (living with parents). We don't know what contract the previous owner had, but I understand that if they did have a contract, we won't inherit it.

 

I mean after you enter into a contract with a supplier. Once that contract expires they may jack the price up and leave you wishing you were back in the Grundversorgung again, but you can't go straight back into it. You would have to go via the Ersatzversorgung. It's all a question of risk, but you should be aware that you can't drop straight back into the Grundversorgung should things not work out. That's all I wanted to say really. There are currently lots of people pleading with their Ersatzversorger to let them into the Grundversorgung. You are in what many would consider a lucky position so think carefully before giving it up.

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11 minutes ago, murphaph said:

I mean after you enter into a contract with a supplier. Once that contract expires they may jack the price up and leave you wishing you were back in the Grundversorgung again, but you can't go straight back into it. You would have to go via the Ersatzversorgung. It's all a question of risk, but you should be aware that you can't drop straight back into the Grundversorgung should things not work out. That's all I wanted to say really. There are currently lots of people pleading with their Ersatzversorger to let them into the Grundversorgung. You are in what many would consider a lucky position so think carefully before giving it up.

 

Ah yes I understood what you meant in your original answer and will take it onboard.

 

Historically, have Grundversorgung prices been higher than fixed contract prices?

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I just got another letter that the price is now going up to 15ct/kWh. WTF? I don't get it. The storage tanks are all full and there are ships full of LNG idling in the sea waiting for space to open up.

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20 minutes ago, AlexCLE said:

I just got another letter that the price is now going up to 15ct/kWh. WTF? I don't get it. The storage tanks are all full and there are ships full of LNG idling in the sea waiting for space to open up.


But the market price ist still at 19ct/kWh. The gas we‘re getting is expensive and will likely remain so for the next few years. If you want to see the glass as half full, consider that gas  has been much too cheap in the last decade at least, most people - myself included- just didn’t really think about it. That led to big savings from the consumer and also industry side.

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11 hours ago, AlexCLE said:

I just got another letter that the price is now going up to 15ct/kWh. WTF? I don't get it. The storage tanks are all full and there are ships full of LNG idling in the sea waiting for space to open up.

Even full storage tanks need to be refilled and there is a bottleneck regarding regasification which you´d need to get gas from a ship into a pipeline (Germany doesn´t have a single one yet).

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13 hours ago, AlexCLE said:

I just got another letter that the price is now going up to 15ct/kWh. WTF? I don't get it. The storage tanks are all full and there are ships full of LNG idling in the sea waiting for space to open up.

How big do you think these storage tanks are? Enough gas for 2 or 3 months in the winter?

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1 hour ago, jamiegw said:

How big do you think these storage tanks are? Enough gas for 2 or 3 months in the winter?

 

The emergency storage tanks have a maximum capacity of approximately 245 TWh of gas.

From December 2021 to February 2022 Germany consumed 360 TWh of gas.

Another 98 TWh in March and another 80 TWh in April.

 

Gas.jpg.665c41debe9adcc8e6944d3d5fcf7410

https://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/EN/Areas/Energy/Companies/SecurityOfSupply/GasSupply/grafik_consumption.html

 

A few unknowns:
1. How much pipeline gas is still coming into Germany from other sources?
2. How much LNG is coming in and how quickly can it be processed and fed into the network?
3. How much has gas consumption already been reduced?

 

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So, we also got a message from our gas supplier...

Going up from 9c/KWh to 29.9c/KWh starting 1st Jan 23. Oh yes, and the monthly basic charge will also double.

 

Families on low income will have difficult choices this winter as their heating bills treble.

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15 minutes ago, HH_Sailor said:

Families on low income will have difficult choices this winter as their heating bills treble.

According to Olaf SChubert, a comedian, there is an easy solution: just spend the Winter in the Caribbean

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23 hours ago, HH_Sailor said:

So, we also got a message from our gas supplier...

Going up from 9c/KWh to 29.9c/KWh starting 1st Jan 23. Oh yes, and the monthly basic charge will also double.

 

Families on low income will have difficult choices this winter as their heating bills treble.

Is that a new contract offer, Grundversorgung, or Ersatzversorgung?

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