Habeck claims anyone could quite easily use 10% less energy

140 posts in this topic

4 hours ago, SpaceOne said:

Biggest mistake Germany did, was shutting down nuclear plants, All this energy crisis is consequence of that. With cheap electricity many households would choose heat pumps instead of gas or even oil. And lets be honest, solar and wind energy don't work without the sun and wind, and they are anyhow to unreliable.

And all this will lead for us (middle and lower) class having to save energy, reducing heating and being cold, and at the same time, richest people are flying into space just to make a selfie and having yachts consuming gallons of fuel every minute. Oh, and I cannot  imagine them to reduce heating and use blankets in their big mansions.

 

Germany shut down nuclear because it asked itself if the worlds most advance economy can not operate those plants reliably, how long will be be, sooner or later, before there is another Fukushima or Chernobyl. Remember Merkel has a doctorate in Quantum Chemistry so I am sure she understood the issues around this power source when making this choice.

 

I would argue the failure lies not in the decision to shut these down, but the lack of installing replacements. For me it's not surprising German had to elect the green party to actually get things moving on ramping up wind and solar power. Sun and wind are complementary, so it's not that they 'dont work' but that they work differently to the existing power infrastructure. In Germany in fact there is an over production of wind and solar, but a lack of infrastructure to store/transmit this energy. Offshore wind power, which runs almost continuously, ground to a halt because the people in charge failed to get the grid infrastructure for this built.

 

The current government mandates all new housing have 65% renewable energy, which in turn means solar plus some sort of heat pump. At the same time they demand all new housing is significantly more efficient, thus wasting less energy.

 

"And all this will lead for us (middle and lower) class having to save energy, reducing heating and being cold"

This is where actually the government really fails, because there is no federal policy here to deal with old housing stock. Where is the national insulation of old properties bill? Where is a bill to subsidies installing solar on existing houses? What about local battery storage? There is a lot which can be done, and is not being done.

 

"With cheap electricity many households would choose..."

Half the electricity cost is taxes in Germany. So the German government could half the cost overnight if they wanted to. It's nothing to do with the  nuclear/gas/coal/wind/solar argument. There are points where electricity production 'costs' literally almost zero, but in Germany we have a fixed price. In the UK, early in the morning when they need to keep certain power plants running, but no one wants the electricity, they sell it for a quarter of the price. This can be used to heat water or charge EVs.

 

 

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Yes, exactly, all this happened because of unbelievable short-sightedness of German governments. What actually worries me a lot, is that  officials in mostly all EU countries and telling us to prepare for even worse conditions at the end of the year. So, first will be 10% reduce, then 50%  and then they will just cut of the supply, because, lo and behold, there won't be any sun in winter (if electricity prices are zero or even negative in summer, doesn't  help end consumer in winter at all), 

 

What I also notice is, that many of city folks are actually agreeing with this green agenda. I'm puzzled why, but after all, anyone owning a real estate in a large German city is basically a millionaire and higher prices don't effect them so much (at least not at first), and they support adding even more taxes for fuel, higher "green" electricity prices , not realizing this is increasing prices also for everything else. More you go to the countryside (and east Germany), more realistic people are, because even 10% increase of food, is a burden for them, let alone 5€ for 1l oil.

Combine this green agenda with sanctions against Russia (=no gas supply) and you have disaster waiting to happen. And after all this, imagine, we'll have a big drought this summer...

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19 hours ago, scook17 said:

 

Germany shut down nuclear because it asked itself if the worlds most advance economy can not operate those plants reliably, how long will be be, sooner or later, before there is another Fukushima or Chernobyl. Remember Merkel has a doctorate in Quantum Chemistry so I am sure she understood the issues around this power source when making this choice.

 

It was a populist decision not a rational one. The are hundreds of reactors in 30 countries being operated reliably. Even in Chernobyl the remaining reactors carried on producing power for years. Renewables can't provide 100%, at least not without lots of storage, so there always needs to be something else and the alternative to nuclear is probably now going to be burning lots more brown coal - the most polluting energy source there is.That's a lot worse than the largely imagined risk of nuclear power and Germany isn't going to be hit by a tsunami. An evidence driven scientist would have surely realised this. As a politician however...

 

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Populist, popular, is good, I am all for popular decisions such as cutting speed limits, which most people favor.

 

Whatabout storing the large amounts of waste that remain radioactive for thousands of years?

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Higher prices are popular? People simply realized to late green means €€€. And if Europe would be completey on renewables, wouldn’t help our planet a bit, because other bigger countries have much bigger impact on the environment. 

 

And about nuclear waste recycling:

https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/5-fast-facts-about-spent-nuclear-fuel

 

Used nuclear fuel can be recycled to make new fuel and byproducts.

More than 90% of its potential energy still remains in the fuel, even after five years of operation in a reactor.

The United States does not currently recycle used nuclear fuel but foreign countries, such as France, do.

There are also some advanced reactor designs in developmentthat could consume or run on used nuclear fuel in the future.

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20 hours ago, SpaceOne said:

What I also notice is, that many of city folks are actually agreeing with this green agenda. I'm puzzled why, but after all, anyone owning a real estate in a large German city is basically a millionaire and higher prices don't effect them so much (at least not at first), and they support adding even more taxes for fuel, higher "green" electricity prices , not realizing this is increasing prices also for everything else. More you go to the countryside (and east Germany), more realistic people are, because even 10% increase of food, is a burden for them, let alone 5€ for 1l oil.

 

As someone who grew up in the countryside, lived in the city, and now in the countryside, the main gotcha I see is transportation costs. In the countryside basically you need a car, so the cost of petrol/diesel makes a huge difference. Even if you own a car in the city, you drive it a fraction of the distance, so pay a fraction of the cost. Now this can be balanced by parking fees or other fees for having a car in a city. But mostly its the people in the countryside who pay for the higher petrol/diesel charges.

 

The rising price of real estate helps no one, especially not in the city. Most people rent, so when the costs of new apartment rise, so does the rent. If you actually own a place yourself, sure there is the increase in apparent wealth, but it's not a reality. That person, unless they sell up and retire to Spain or elsewhere, is no better off. Sure a landlord is probably the winner here, but I think you were referring to owners/occupiers?

 

Agreeing/Disagreeing with the green agenda has a lot to do with how it's achieved. Currently we pay Russia absolutely huge sums for Oil/Gas/Coal:

https://www.destatis.de/DE/Presse/Pressemitteilungen/2022/03/PD22_110_51.html

https://beyond-coal.eu/russian-fossil-fuel-tracker/

 

Fundamentally this is bad choice, as it's just burning money, not investing money into building infrastructure which provides for those energy needs. From a political perspective as well as an economic one, Germany should aim to become energy independent as soon as possible. The question is more of a how (wind/solar/hydro/nuclear/...) and who the costs fall to.

 

I serious think we could see rationing of gas in Germany come winter 2022. If I were Putin, I might well have turned off the gas already, or I could just be happy the EU pays 2x or 3x what it paid before and be laughing all the way to the bank. My gas bill doubled as of the start of 2021, doubled again in Jan. 2022 and will increase another 50% as of July 1st.

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22 hours ago, scook17 said:

The question is more of a how (wind/solar/hydro/nuclear/...) and who the costs fall to.

 

Wouldn't at least part of the costs come from the billions we would no longer be paying to Russia?

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On 4/15/2022, 4:13:38, MikeMelga said:

I'm in favor of reducing speed limit to 170-180km/h, because it's bordeline dangerous. Below that it's just populism

 

Maybe the speed reduction will come with EVs.   From what I've seen on the Autobahn, EV drivers tend to keep their speed around 120-130 km/h, even with cars that go much faster, like Teslas.  Yes, here and there I see them going much faster, but in general they are not really going that fast.  I assume they drive that speed in order to keep reasonable range coverage.   You of course should know better this, what's your opinion?

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On 4/24/2022, 12:40:53, Dembo said:

and Germany isn't going to be hit by a tsunami.

It can be hit by Russia, though. 

 

The largest (6 GW) NPP in Europe is now occupied by Russian soldiers. The station is operating and produces electricity, the personnel is basically taken hostages. But the situation can deteriorate at any time. 

 

From this point of view, decentralized renewables are safer in case of war: you cannot turn off half the country from electricity by occupying a single power plant. 

 

 

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On 15/04/2022, 16:13:38, MikeMelga said:

I'm in favor of reducing speed limit to 170-180km/h, because it's bordeline dangerous. Below that it's just populism

 

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5 hours ago, Krieg said:

 

Maybe the speed reduction will come with EVs.   From what I've seen on the Autobahn, EV drivers tend to keep their speed around 120-130 km/h, even with cars that go much faster, like Teslas.  Yes, here and there I see them going much faster, but in general they are not really going that fast.  I assume they drive that speed in order to keep reasonable range coverage.   You of course should know better this, what's your opinion?

100% agree, at least for the next few years. I definitely drive slower on my city commute, but more to do with Autopilot taking over and being overall a relaxed experience. On the autobahn I keep below 150 most of the time because Autopilot only goes that fast. But I can understand many want to go slower and improve efficiency.

But if I feel I need to trade off cost with time, I drive between 170-230.

 

One detail: as charging networks improve to the level of Supercharger, people will stop caring so much about efficiency.

But overall, I think autonomous driving will have more impact on reducing top speed. It's just comfortable.

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On 4/26/2022, 4:46:56, MikeMelga said:

But overall, I think autonomous driving will have more impact on reducing top speed. It's just comfortable.

In the past, traffic jams regulated speed limits, has anything changed in Germany? Fewer cars on the roads?

 

In Israel, the government reduced or switched off public transit during the pandemic, so people bought more cars = more traffic. The image of public transit reliability is ruined for the next decades. I realized this in 2015 (I think) when there was a terror attack in Munich, and the government stopped all public transit (including taxis). Thanks God I was driving and could safely get home when the asshole was still on the loose. 

 

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TBH, I think there will be a huge shift regarding public transportations in the next 15 years. I think mass transit like subway and train might maintain its relevance, but buses will be completely replaced with small self driving vans. This will be so convenient that most people won't own a car any more. Will be interesting to see what happens when parking places start becoming empty. Sure, middle-upper class will still own cars, but for anyone with lower income it will be an expensive luxury.

I think within 15-25 years will be extremely hard to maintain an ICE car. Most pumps will be closed and most ICE cars shops too. I've heard that in Norway there is already a reduction of gas pumps.

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2 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

but buses will be completely replaced with small self driving vans.

Self-driving technology is very far away from eliminating the driver, so let's start with taxis. 

 

What is needed for real autonomous driving is not only the car capable of driving by itself. But:

1. Self-driving cars communicating with each other. 

2. Communication with traffic lights, signs, and navigation systems. 

 

This can be achieved only if the government and car producers talk to each other and work together. I see this is being done in Sweden, but so far German politicians are mostly Luddites, so do not expect this in 10 years in Germany. 

 

Then, some traffic management control center operated by humans is also a prerequisite. Human operators can divert self-driving cars and solve traffic jams, etc.

 

It's a nice future but not in 15 years. 30-40, maybe. 

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39 minutes ago, yourkeau said:

Self-driving technology is very far away from eliminating the driver, so let's start with taxis. 

There are 4-5 companies 2 years away from making it.

 

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What is needed for real autonomous driving is not only the car capable of driving by itself. But:

1. Self-driving cars communicating with each other. 

2. Communication with traffic lights, signs, and navigation systems. 

Absolutely wrong. There is no need for it. If you wait for it, it will take 30 years. Reading traffic lights and signs is a well established technology. Mobileye has been doing it for almost 10 years! There is also no need to inter-car communication, that sounds great, but there is no need.

 

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Then, some traffic management control center operated by humans is also a prerequisite. Human operators can divert self-driving cars and solve traffic jams, etc.

Absolutely wrong. No need for it.

 

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It's a nice future but not in 15 years. 30-40, maybe.

With your approach, definitely. Fortunately some very smart people found much simpler solutions.

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1 hour ago, yourkeau said:

Self-driving technology is very far away from eliminating the driver, so let's start with taxis. 

 

Like here in Beijing...

 

Quote

For the first time in China, people will be able to get a taxi ride without anyone behind the wheel.

Baidu (BIDU) and autonomous driving startup Pony.ai announced Thursday that they had won the country's first permits to provide robotaxi ride-hailing services to the public. The permits do not require an operator to sit in the driver's seat

 

Taxi anyone ?

 

But I agree with @yourkeau that it'll be a generation away in Germany.

Come on!

16 Länder trying to agree on whether the unnecessary steering wheel should be blue or red?

 

Maybe 2 generations away

:wacko:

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26 minutes ago, HH_Sailor said:

But I agree with @yourkeau that it'll be a generation away in Germany.

Actually, Germany is advancing on self driving regulations, they are allowing pilot projects, they don't want to be laggard in one more domain.

 

I think how fast this will evolve will get most people by surprise.

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Well lets look at the record so far 

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-history-of-full-self-driving-promise-2022-1

 

Quote

  • Billionaire Tesla CEO Elon Musk is once again promising fully autonomous cars in the near future.
  • "My personal guess is...this year," he told investors during the company's Q4 2021 earnings call.
  • Musk has been promising as much since at least 2015.

Lets face it, all the developers are promising 2 years - No one has delivered so far, maybe one day they will, I think it will be a long time coming. The training algorithms are ok for some tasks - But a human can come to a situation and figure out what to do, kinda by its self. Thats what you need a computer to do, if you want a safe system, you cannot train for every situation, you need something that humans can do.

Computers follow lines of code very quickly, but the thinking part come down to an instruction of

 

'IF this or that and something else  then do that'   thats basically what a computer does or thinks.

 

Sure small improvements will be made, driving a taxi in a small area, that is mapped very well only in daylight and in good weather. But I do not want that, I want tp get in and say take me saalbach hinter glemm, then it should drive me there, while I sleep in the back. That is self driving Level 5. It will be 10's of years  to get there at this pace.

 

Lets not forget, that poor women pushing her bike over a road at night, which that self driving car ran over and killed her. I live in Munich, I heard these systems will be tested here in the future, if so, I want to be able to loggin to an app which can tell me where mudder cars are, so I can aviod the area.

  

 

 

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9 minutes ago, yesterday said:

...

Lets face it, all the developers are promising 2 years - No one has delivered so far, maybe one day they will, I think it will be a long time coming. The training algorithms are ok for some tasks - But a human can come to a situation and figure out what to do, kinda by its self. Thats what you need a computer to do, if you want a safe system, you cannot train for every situation, you need something that humans can do.

Computers follow lines of code very quickly, but the thinking part come down to an instruction of

 

'IF this or that and something else  then do that'   thats basically what a computer does or thinks.

 

 

 

being a programmer myself, I can tell you with certainty: I would never sit in a car operated solely by a computer program.


Even the most thorough testing can not anticipate all possible situations in complex environment like city traffic.
You can have computer programs support the human driver, but not make final decisions by themselves

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32 minutes ago, karin_brenig said:

 

being a programmer myself, I can tell you with certainty: I would never sit in a car operated solely by a computer program.


Even the most thorough testing can not anticipate all possible situations in complex environment like city traffic.
You can have computer programs support the human driver, but not make final decisions by themselves

But an irresponsible driver is ok? When computers show better score than humans, you will change your mind.

By the way, computers do land airplanes from time to time. Do you jump out?

 

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