The War in Ukraine

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https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64092183

 

A Ukrainian drone attack on Engels bomber base in south Russia has left three people dead, Moscow says.

Air defences reportedly shot down the drone but falling debris caused the casualties in the overnight attack.

Earlier this month Russia accused Ukraine of a similar attack on the airfield, home to strategic bombers that have taken part in missile attacks on Ukraine.

The base lies about 500km (310 miles) north-east of Ukraine's border.

The Ukrainian military has not officially commented on the attacks but BBC Russia Editor Steve Rosenberg says the latest incident will come as an embarrassment to Russian authorities.

Russia's defence ministry says its air defences shot down the Ukrainian drone flying at low altitude at about 01:35 on Monday (22:35 GMT Sunday).

Three Russian servicemen died of injuries caused by drone debris, it adds.

 

So the injuries were effectively self-inflicted...

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Any opinions on what effect the supply to the Ukraine of modern western battle tanks will have on the conflict. I seem to remember quite a while back someone saying the Russians had not deployed their most modern tanks in the Ukraine, is that still the case and is it likely to change?

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10 minutes ago, keith2011 said:

Any opinions on what effect the supply to the Ukraine of modern western battle tanks will have on the conflict. I seem to remember quite a while back someone saying the Russians had not deployed their most modern tanks in the Ukraine, is that still the case and is it likely to change?

The Russians have said they will now deploy their modern tank the T-14, most reports on TV I have seen, seem to think the T-14 is quite crap and un reliable and not well developed.

 

The Russians have their own version of the NLAW etc.

 

On TV, they expect the Western tanks to do  a lot better than than the Russian Tanks, but a lot of people think that the Russians lost so many tanks because of poor tactical decisions.

 

In any case its going to be months before the Ukrainians will have enough training on the tanks, to have an effective use.

 

I seem to remember many people on here saying that the tank is dead, a useless weapon in todays war, but I think if used in certain ways it can make a difference to the out come of the war.

 

I heard there is a campaign to ban diesel tanks because they smell so bad and environment concerns , but I cannot see happening  :D

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, jeba said:

I doubt a few dozen tanks will make much of a difference.

Over 300 tanks according to Ukrainian authorities. And each modern western tank is worth many russian tanks. Although I think tanks themselves won't win this war, they might have their role in fast paced offensives (tank speed runs) and against heavily fortified positions.

 

And that news is several months old, just when Kherson was recaptured. He had been sharing that opinion before Kherson was recaptured.

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3 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

And that news is several months old, just when Kherson was recaptured. He had been sharing that opinion before Kherson was recaptured.

It's 2 months old. What should have changed?

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19 minutes ago, jeba said:

Milley urges Ukraine to negotiate with Russia, saying chances of total military victory 'unlikely. Milley is the US Chief of Staff.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/milley-urges-ukraine-negotiate-russia-saying-chances-total-military-victory-unlikely

I doubt a few dozen tanks will make much of a difference.

 

Negotiations are dead in the water after Merkel & Hollande admitted Minsk was a sham.

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What's changed, its almost a stale mate on the ground, with the Russians gaining very small amount of ground. 

 

Maybe some people think the tanks will open up the ground in Ukrains favor.

 

However according to reports Russia has lost in dead and injured its initial troops size of 180,000 people, which is of course bad,  and I guess similar for the Ukraine. If the stalemate is not broken some how many many will die, as neither side seems ready to talk.

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2 minutes ago, yesterday said:

However according to reports Russia has lost in dead and injured its initial troops size of 180,000 people, which is of course bad,  and I guess similar for the Ukraine.

One difference is that Russia can replace them, but Ukraine cannot.

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yes of course I agree in the final position

 

But to get to that point Russia will be looking at losing 20 to 25 million people, not sure the Russian people would accept that - Means a lot of sons will have died from Moscow families - There is be questions asked about if it is wise to carry on. Guess the same is true for the Ukraine.

 

Which is all very sad.

 

Maybe the Ukraine will not get the full 300 tanks and that will of course affect the chances of success.

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2 hours ago, jeba said:

One difference is that Russia can replace them, but Ukraine cannot.

More or less. Wagner lost 40.000 inmates on Bahkmut and Soledar. Now they can't find new inmates to replace them, others know the chance of surviving is nearly zero.

Remember these were the desperate soldiers who would do anything to survive, including mindless charging. Now those are gone.

Recent Russian progress was done with the most extreme cannon fodder, that they can no longer replace.

 

Also when the winter is over, this infantry war will transition again. With hard soil, mobility will return. So lots of infantry will not make such impact.

Russia is also running low on good equipment. They can't sustain this.

While most analysts point to a kill/death ratio of 3 to 5 to 1 against Ukrainian losses, this can go up to 10:1 or more very soon. Kherson was such a situation. Russians were losing 8 or 10 to 1 Ukrainian.

And Russians can't arm 1 or 2 million troops. They simply don't have enough weapons, supply chain and training capabilities. At any point I seriously doubt they can maintain more than 200-300.000 troops in the front line.

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Talk of Poland quickly supplying 60 more PT-91 tanks which are Polish built upgraded (with western bits n pieces) based on the T-72, but the upgrades fix many of the T-72's weaknesses. They are quite modern, having been built in the early to mid 90s. They have upgrades like a better, more powerful engine, much better armour, night vision sights, French firing system from SAGEM. They can even detect if they are locked in by a laser targeting system and deploy counter measures. They offer much improved survivability for the crew should they be hit. These are ina ddition to the 14 Leopard 2's Poland has committed to supplying. If Ukraine gets just 10% of all the Leopard 2's in Europe it's like 200 tanks. These can make a huge difference in a war like this. These tanks were literally built to fight this exact war. The Ukrainians have shown the ability to use the weapons they have received very effectively. I suspect the same will be true of western main battle tanks. This won't be easy but for the Russian crews these much more formidable western tanks will be a serious blow to morale.

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2 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

Now those are gone.

 

 

They had dog's lives... some probably not in prison for any reason, it being Russia. The stats are beyond assimilating. What a waste.

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52 minutes ago, optimista said:

 

They had dog's lives... some probably not in prison for any reason, it being Russia. The stats are beyond assimilating. What a waste.

I read that from the first wave (around 30.000 inmates), only 20 survived and were released.

Also don't forget that Wagner's leader has fallen a bit out of favor in the Kremlin.

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2 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

I read that from the first wave (around 30.000 inmates), only 20 survived and were released.

Also don't forget that Wagner's leader has fallen a bit out of favor in the Kremlin.

 

Wow, I'd be interested in reading that too... any chance of a link?

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I bet the survivors were the real bastards the world would be best rid of. That 's usually the way of it. But who knows ? Cannon fodder in 2023. Tragic.

 

Not only am I cynical but also sceptical of the stats. How would they count / track the survivors in present conditions ? I doubt they have systems in place for that. It will be chaos. War usually is. But it makes a good story for the journalists to sell.

 

I wonder if poppies will do well this year in Western Ukraine ?

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