The War in Ukraine

3,103 posts in this topic

11 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

Current estimations from Russian sources put the conclusion of repairs in Summer 2023. No news if that pipe was damaged, but both the road and the train line are out for 1 year, so yes, it's probably damaged.

 

 

Where are you reading that?
The first part of the road is already repaired and the estimates are that the road will be fully operational again by Dec. 20th.

It only took 27 months to build the whole bridge. How could it take a year to fix a tiny section of it?

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I thought cars were already using the bridge again, with trucks being sent by ferry. Can't believe it will take anything like a year to get that bridge fully operational. 

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1 minute ago, murphaph said:

I thought cars were already using the bridge again, with trucks being sent by ferry. Can't believe it will take anything like a year to get that bridge fully operational. 


They are. The trains were also running a couple of days after the attack.
No idea if there is a water pipe on the bridge but if there is and it was damaged, surely that would also be easy enough to fix.

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I suspect a single water pipe with even a 1m bore would struggle to keep Crimea going, beyond domestic use. Just look at the canal the Ukrainian SSR built to get water for agricultural irrigation down to Crimea when it was transferred to them from the Russian SSR. That's a really big canal and the quantities of water it can transport would dwarf a bridge borne pipeline IMO.

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2 minutes ago, murphaph said:

I suspect a single water pipe with even a 1m bore would struggle to keep Crimea going, beyond domestic use. Just look at the canal the Ukrainian SSR built to get water for agricultural irrigation down to Crimea when it was transferred to them from the Russian SSR. That's a really big canal and the quantities of water it can transport would dwarf a bridge borne pipeline IMO.

 

Agreed.
The fact that Crimea was struggling desperately for water before the canal blockage was removed in February points to there being no other significant supply.

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17 minutes ago, murphaph said:

I thought cars were already using the bridge again, with trucks being sent by ferry. Can't believe it will take anything like a year to get that bridge fully operational. 

All trucks and most cars have to be inspected before passing, so that reduces traffic a lot. Only one side is working.

I thought trains were passing, but read yesterday that the line is damaged. My guess is it can run, but probably it's too risky to move heavy cargo

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The steel in the box girder section must have been damaged by the heat of the fire caused by the fuel train burning. Otherwise they'd have had the rail line up and running again by now I suspect.

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Russian TV discussing what happened. Interesting point, near the end. They state the timing was chosen so not to help Biden win the elections.

 

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On 11/9/2022, 11:32:05, Eric7 said:

 

 

Awesome avatar, but I must say I was extremely disappointed when I learned Ficki Fiona (Triggered Feminist) was not triggered in the video when that still was taken.  Fake memes only bring sadness. 

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48 minutes ago, Krieg said:

 

Awesome avatar, but I must say I was extremely disappointed when I learned Ficki Fiona (Triggered Feminist) was not triggered in the video when that still was taken.  Fake memes only bring sadness. 

 

As was I.

Years of being lied to... nihil credite, omnia interrogate. ;)

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Seems Kherson evacuation is heading for a major Russian disaster.

Not only Ukrainians liberated 41 villages, Kherson airport in 24 hours, there are reports that 18.000 troops were left behind, told to get civilian cloths and run "in whatever direction you want".

Of course rushing in could lead to a trap, but knowing Russian incompetence, this could just well be their major defeat so far.

 

It's a long shot, but if such military loss is confirmed, it could trigger the end of the war. I don't see how they can maintain moral after this.

I give it a slim chance this war is over before the end of the year.

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9 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

Seems Kherson evacuation is heading for a major Russian disaster.

Not only Ukrainians liberated 41 villages, Kherson airport in 24 hours, there are reports that 18.000 troops were left behind, told to get civilian cloths and run "in whatever direction you want".

Of course rushing in could lead to a trap, but knowing Russian incompetence, this could just well be their major defeat so far.

 

Are you referring to the report which originated from Anatoly Sharii and was spread around as "information from the GRU"?
It's already been retracted as a fake. A huge majority of the troops and equipment are gone, in fact the pull out started before the cringy televised "decision" to do so.

 

9 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

It's a long shot, but if such military loss is confirmed, it could trigger the end of the war. I don't see how they can maintain moral after this.

I give it a slim chance this war is over before the end of the year.

 

 

Very slim chance! In my opinion this war won't be over any time soon and the most likely outcome is a stalemate at some point next year.

 

 

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8 minutes ago, fraufruit said:

But one can hope.

 

Hope all you want of course, but the only realistic way the conflict ends any time soon is through a negotiated settlement.

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54 minutes ago, Eric7 said:

 

Hope all you want of course, but the only realistic way the conflict ends any time soon is through a negotiated settlement.

 

But how could anyone trust the Russians headed by Putin? Didn't he say he was not going to invade the Ukraine? What would a negotiated settlement with a habitual liar actually  be worth?

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3 hours ago, keith2011 said:

 

But how could anyone trust the Russians headed by Putin? Didn't he say he was not going to invade the Ukraine? What would a negotiated settlement with a habitual liar actually  be worth?

Ask the EU. They have experience of dealing with Johnson's Tories.

 

In all seriousness you are 100% correct. What would be the point in negotiating a "settlement" with a country that says one thing and does the exact opposite all the time. There would need to be trust for negotiations to deliver anything. Putin must go for any possibility of negotiations but personally I see no pressing need to negotiate when Ukraine is liberating cities and Ukrainians want to keep fighting to liberate their whole country so we should support them in that. Russian morale is in the toilet. They are a completely spent force, literally. Some estimates say they have used up 80% of their Iskander missiles, for example.

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