The War in Ukraine

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For those who think that nuclear weapons don't leave places uninhabitable for years, this is a pretty good piece. Interesting that if Russia nuked Ukraine, the prevailing westerly winds would carry it back to Russia.

 

 

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For all his threats to fire tactical nuclear arms at Ukrainian targets, President Vladimir Putin of Russia is now discovering what the United States itself concluded years ago, U.S. officials suspect: Small nuclear weapons are hard to use, harder to control and a far better weapon of terror and intimidation than a weapon of war.

Analysts inside and outside the government who have tried to game out Putin’s threats have come to doubt how useful such arms — delivered in an artillery shell or thrown in the back of a truck — would be in advancing his objectives.

The primary utility, many U.S. officials say, would be as part of a last-ditch effort by Putin to halt the Ukrainian counteroffensive, by threatening to make parts of Ukraine uninhabitable. The officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe some of the most sensitive discussions inside the administration....

 

 

the rest

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General Petraeus gave his own opinion as to what the United States would do, should Russia actually detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine. He suspects the US and willing allies (not NATO itself) would enter the war in a conventional manner and begin destroying every Russian position within the borders of Ukraine, including Crimea. He also suspects the entire Black Sea Fleet would be sunk. I think Putin would actually be "removed from office" by people close to him, should he give the order to use nuclear weapons. I don't believe the orders would be carried out. Hopefully.

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Whatever is going to happen, it's going to happen fast, not in 6 months.

On the ground, it seems likely that Russian defenses will collapse quickly. Nukes won't change it. Chemical and biological weapons might, and I'm surprised not many people are talking about it.

Russian defenses are falling so fast, that even if US and allies cancel support to Ukraine to force it to the negotiation table, I think the equipment on the ground is probably enough for the final push. So that invalidates Putin's current plan: to get western public opinion for negotiation, from nuclear threat.

So Putin might escalate slowly, by using chemical and biological weapons. Those would be effective in reducing Ukrainian advances, and at the same time test US and allies, while holding the nukes as a threat of further escalation.

One problem is that Russian troops themselves might not be equipped against biological and chemical weapons, so using them close to their own troops might be a problem.

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Some interesting insight from specialists. The nuke, if it comes, won't probably come unnanounced.

Tactical nukes are not "ready to fire", in contrast with strategic nukes.

They need to be taken out of storage, and those storage locations are extremely well watched by US satellites. They also need to be prepared.

Putin will probably use this for his benefit. He might order several to be taken out of storage and make sure everyone sees it. A warning.

So we might see in the next few days some headlines saying weapons were taken out of storage, then nothing for a week or so, as the main purpose at start is to escalate the thread without executing it.

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1 hour ago, MikeMelga said:

 

So we might see in the next few days some headlines saying weapons were taken out of storage, then nothing for a week or so, as the main purpose at start is to escalate the thread without executing it.

 

Its already happening

https://news.sky.com/story/reports-of-a-nuclear-train-heading-to-ukraine-should-be-treated-with-caution-12711904

 

From what I have seen, even if Putin uses Nukes, the west will not reply with Nukes initially, But the West will target  a lot of Russian bases, equipment and ships based in Ukraine with missiles, ie weaken Russian power in the area, so the Ukraine will find it easier to take over. 

 

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7 minutes ago, yesterday said:

 

Its already happening

https://news.sky.com/story/reports-of-a-nuclear-train-heading-to-ukraine-should-be-treated-with-caution-12711904

 

From what I have seen, even if Putin uses Nukes, the west will not reply with Nukes initially, But the West will target  a lot of Russian bases, equipment and ships based in Ukraine with missiles, ie weaken Russian power in the area, so the Ukraine will find it easier to take over. 

 

AFAIK that was fake.

 

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17 minutes ago, yesterday said:

 

Its already happening

https://news.sky.com/story/reports-of-a-nuclear-train-heading-to-ukraine-should-be-treated-with-caution-12711904

 

From what I have seen, even if Putin uses Nukes, the west will not reply with Nukes initially, But the West will target  a lot of Russian bases, equipment and ships based in Ukraine with missiles, ie weaken Russian power in the area, so the Ukraine will find it easier to take over. 

 

I've seen this referred to as escalation by de-escalation, i.e, not responding to a nuke with a nuke but with massive conventional means. NATO forces have conventional weapons that can come pretty close to the kiloton amount of Russian battlefield nuclear weapons by all accounts. The Russian military is (in conventional warfare) clearly not the near peer enemy that NATO assumed it was, otherwise it would have long since steamrolled Ukraine. I would imagine even European NATO forces alone could defeat Russia quite comfortably in a conventional war, looking at how poorly their men and equipment are performing in the field. Ukraine is flat too. If they can't win there, the long imagined threat of Russia tanks marauding across the northern European plain were clearly just that, imagined. Of course Russia possesses a nuclear arsenal and at least some of it will be fully functional. 

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https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63149156

Russia's President Vladimir Putin has signed the final papers to annex four regions of Ukraine - even as his military suffered further setbacks.

The Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions are "accepted into the Russian Federation" the documents say.

But in two of those areas - Luhansk and Kherson - Ukraine said it has been retaking more villages.

Mr Putin also signed a decree to formalise Russia's seizure of the nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia.

Last Friday, the Russian leader held a grand ceremony in the Kremlin, where he signed agreements with the Moscow-installed leaders of the four regions.

 

Surely, if the rest of the world refuses to recognise these areas as being Russian, those papers must be meaningless

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22 hours ago, Wulfrun said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63149156

Russia's President Vladimir Putin has signed the final papers to annex four regions of Ukraine - even as his military suffered further setbacks.

The Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions are "accepted into the Russian Federation" the documents say.

But in two of those areas - Luhansk and Kherson - Ukraine said it has been retaking more villages.

Mr Putin also signed a decree to formalise Russia's seizure of the nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia.

Last Friday, the Russian leader held a grand ceremony in the Kremlin, where he signed agreements with the Moscow-installed leaders of the four regions.

 

Surely, if the rest of the world refuses to recognise these areas as being Russian, those papers must be meaningless

Meaningless outside Russia and outside the occupied territories. Inside the occupied territories the Russians are now "legally" able to conscript local men to fight for them. This will only make the occupation more unpopular, even among those who may have wanted it to begin with.

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On a dark cold autumn day in Munich, Biden has announced, this is the worst time since 1963, the Cuban missile crisis ...

 

Guess in the next 2 weeks or so, we will know who was playing chicken or the world will look very different as the Nuclear winter could start, which will no doubt cause the human race to loose their voice and the planet of the apes starts, if memory serves me right.

 

 

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-first-time-since-the-cuban-missile-crisis-we-have-a-direct-threat-of-the-use-nuclear-weapons-says-president-biden-12714106

 

Like I said before, Putin needs a way out without losing too much face, but I cannot see one

 

"I'm trying to figure out what is Putin's off-ramp?" he said. "Where does he find a way out? Where does he find himself in a position that he does not only lose face but lose significant power within Russia?

 

I do not get the impression that Putin, will be happy to retire and play golf for the rest of his life.

 

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2 hours ago, yesterday said:

 

I do not get the impression that Putin, will be happy to retire and play golf for the rest of his life.

 

Indeed and I suspect he could end up having a nasty accident. With him gone I suspect the Ukraine would be much more willing to negotiate a settlement in respect to their pro Russian eastern provinces that would save some face for Russia whilst maintaining the Ukraine's territorial integrity. At the moment a nuclear escalation makes no sense, I believe,  to anyone except Putin himself. I have little doubt that there are powerful Russians who have also come to this conclusion!

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1 hour ago, keith2011 said:

 

Indeed and I suspect he could end up having a nasty accident. With him gone I suspect the Ukraine would be much more willing to negotiate a settlement in respect to their pro Russian eastern provinces that would save some face for Russia whilst maintaining the Ukraine's territorial integrity. At the moment a nuclear escalation makes no sense, I believe,  to anyone except Putin himself. I have little doubt that there are powerful Russians who have also come to this conclusion!

 

yeah and taking out Putin some how, better done by Russians, is the best option. Not that I like the idea of taking people out, its just I do not see him backing down.

 

So in the near future, Putin will deploy tactical Nukes to try and stop the huge losses he is taking in the Ukraine, the US and others will reply with a huge conventional ( no Nukes ) missiles on Russian forces in the Ukraine. At that point Putin can declare it an act of war on the Russian Federation and launch Nukes against US and its allies. Of course we will do the same. So we could be  just 3 steps away from the end. Unless Putin goes.

 

I guess that puts us on DEFCON 2, from the war games Movie and in real life

 

I thought long and hard about my support for the Ukraine, before giving it, because I thought we would end up in this position. But well you have to fight what you believe in or whats the point of life, Russia is clearly the bad boy in this, so here we go.

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Russian leaders have often met violent ends. Stalin was offed in fairly brutal style (essentially being left to starve to death as everyone was so afraid to go and see was he still alive). Putin has more powerful and wealthy enemies with far more to lose than any previous leader in Russian history. I am quite sure the oligarchs he has provided the environment to to make themselves very wealthy, will want to maintain that wealth. There is no good outcome for these guys that matches Putin's desires for a Russian empire. Putin wins in Ukraine, the sanctions remain indefinitely. Putin grossly miscalculated our willingness to wear extra jumpers in winter to support Ukraine.

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1 minute ago, yesterday said:

I thought long and hard about my support for the Ukraine, before giving it, because I thought we would end up in this position. But well you have to fight what you believe in or whats the point of life, Russia is clearly the bad boy in this, so here we go.

If we had rolled over the Baltic states would have been next and that would have been far, far, far more dangerous. Ukraine and its poor people are essentially providing us with a buffer between NATO and Russia. I do not really see how we could have not reacted to what Russia has done, without inviting further aggression further westwards. It would have also sent a clear signal to China over Taiwan that the west would stand idly by in the case of an invasion there. If we think the it's difficult without Russian gas (ultimately just a commodity that can be substituted, albeit expensively), I suspect things would have been much worse without all the semiconductors Taiwan manufactures. Many global industries would grind to a shuddering halt should Taiwan become a war zone.

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2 hours ago, murphaph said:

Kerch bridge partially destroyed.

 

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Other Ukrainian officials were more celebratory while still stopping short of claiming responsibility. The secretary of Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council, Oleksiy Danilov, posted a video in his Twitter with Kerch Bridge on fire on the left side and video with Marilyn Monroe singing her famous “Happy Birthday Mr. President” on the right side.

 

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