The War in Ukraine

3,110 posts in this topic

1 hour ago, yourkeau said:

 

Full and unconditional surrender. No country that started a world war has ever won it. 

 

Unfortunately, this means that this war will not end in the near future. It can take decades. Ukraine will somehow adjust and survive via military aid and free trade area with the EU. Russia will try bullying the EU here and there until nobody buys its gas and oil anymore. That is not its biggest problem: 90% of Russian population is so poor that they will not notice anything. Their problem is the elites in St. Petersburg, Moscow, and the local TT trolls living in Munich. Until they start feeling the collapse, it will take time. More than 5 years. 

 

We will see. 

 

A lot of my friends in Ukraine are openly talking about nuclear weapons. They are 100% sure Putin will drop tactical nuclear weapons on Ukraine. 

I don't want to speculate on this, but this scenario is not impossible. In this case the war will finish sooner than later, though...

 

 

Think 1982 ...

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19 hours ago, murphaph said:

He will not stop in Ukraine.

18 hours ago, murphaph said:

And surrendering will only delay the next land grab

You know that how? Have you had tea with him to discuss his plans?

 

19 hours ago, murphaph said:

He needs hard currency and western components to build weaponry.

Wishful thinking! He has even more hard currency due to the effect of the sanctions on energy prices. That will enable him to get access to Western components via countries which don´t take part in the sanctions (which is by far the majority of countries). Sanctions don´t work to overcome evil regimes. Look e.g. at Cuba which has been sanctioned for 60 years and is still sticking to communism.

 

18 hours ago, murphaph said:

Russians have no incentive to prosecute Putin's war. Ukrainians have a massive incentive to repel it.

At least those who aren´t pro-Russian. You seem to know exactly how many they are. I don´t. I still can´t get over the fact that a majority voted for a pro-Russian president (Janucovic, who fled to Russia after the Maidan revolution). Silly me.

 

18 hours ago, murphaph said:

None ended up in a nuclear holocaust because that is what they are "designed" to avoid-direct conflict on the battlefield. History cares to teach us these valuable lessons, should we be open to learning from it.

Here too, the standard disclaimer from the stock market analysts applies: past results are not guaranteed to apply to the future.

 

17 hours ago, yesterday said:

So we are supposed to agree that parts of Ukraine will be scarified to feed the hunger of Russia

First, we all have to agree on that a pro-Russian president was elected by a majority in a democratic election before he was overthrown by a violent mob. Can we? I miss that part of the story in Western media.

 

7 hours ago, yourkeau said:

A lot of my friends in Ukraine are openly talking about nuclear weapons. They are 100% sure Putin will drop tactical nuclear weapons on Ukraine. 

Surely, they must be wrong. After all, FF, Murphaph and Yesterday said this wouldn´t happen.

 

 

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15 hours ago, fraufruit said:

 

He could walk out now. He has billions somewhere.

He won't do that. He said a couple of times he was concerned if he did it he would end up like Gaddafi. He was really shocked by Gaddafi's end.

He will stay on top no matter what until he dies

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11 hours ago, yourkeau said:

A lot of my friends in Ukraine are openly talking about nuclear weapons. They are 100% sure Putin will drop tactical nuclear weapons on Ukraine. 

I don't want to speculate on this, but this scenario is not impossible. In this case the war will finish sooner than later, though...

 

Tactical nukes won't win him the war. Ukranian plains are no good for that. He will just piss off people and if we're lucky, lose china's support. For sure he would lose India's support, Modi already started distancing himself.

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Jeba, can you  not see the pattern yet?

South Ossetia -> Crimea -> rest of Ukraine -> ?

In any case, we have a simple moral duty to assist Ukraine defend itself. You know what morals are, right?

 

As for the Russian stooge Yanukovych, well let's read a little of what he got up to after being elected and why the people took a disliking to him that was strong enough to topple him:

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After assuming the presidency, Yanukovych seemed to embrace a time-tested approach of using Ukraine’s notoriously corrupt judicial system to consolidate his political authority. He quickly moved to prosecute his main political rival, Yulia Tymoshenko, his most serious challenger in the 2010 election. Yanukovych used the corruption issue as a political cudgel: Tymoshenko ended up being convicted of abuse of power and embezzlement in connection with a gas supply agreement with Russia in 2009, receiving a seven-year prison term and a $188-million fine. The case was widely viewed by international watchdogs as politically motivated. In 2013, the European Court for Human Rights ruled that her arrest and conviction were “arbitrary and unlawful.”

Svyatoslav Piskun, a former member of the Party of Regions who served as Ukraine’s general prosecutor, remembers that Yanukovych was obsessed with putting Tymoshenko away: “He had one problem: how to jail Tymoshenko.” She ended up not being released from prison until after the Euromaidan Revolution ousted Yanukovych in early 2014.

The man also tore up agreements with the EU that were in progress but which he had not declared he was going to do during the election campaign. He lied about which way he would take Ukraine.

 

Let's read a bit more about this man you allege was loved by so many Ukrainians and perhaps try to understand why there was a popular uprising to force him out...

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Starting in 2010, Yanukovych is alleged to have started consolidating various business interests under the umbrella of a single, tight group of individuals closely associated with him. This group was often referred to as “The Family.”

Some of its alleged members held senior government posts, including First Deputy Prime Minister Serhiy Arbuzov, Minister for Taxes and Revenues Oleksandr Klymenko, Interior Minister Vitaliy Zakharchenko and Energy Minister Eduard Stavitsky.

Many of these associates had personal connections to Yanukovych’s elder son Oleksandr, who was at the center of the Family. Before his father’s presidency, Oleksandr Yanukovych worked as a dentist, but by 2013 he had assembled an array of business interests and had accumulated an estimated personal fortune of $133 million.

The Family’s business interests spread far and wide, from oil and gas to prime real estate in the capital. Land for these real estate projects was often annexed from public parks and green zones, and even a public school in one case. According to media reports, armies of lawyers, phony firms and complex networks of offshore companies were used to service this business empire.

One person in this group stood out: Serhiy Kurchenko. He was 28 in 2013, when the Family’s business practices started coming under scrutiny from investigative journalists. After Yanukovych gained power, Kurchenko became known as a wunderkind financial genius.

He later was referred to as “Yanukovych’s wallet.”

Kurchenko had an array of fictitious firms registered in flats in Kharkiv and Simferopol, whose residents had no idea they were company directors. They were linked, through financial transactions, to numerous offshore firms that churned millions of dollars for Kurchenko’s corporations.

By 2013, he was worth an estimated $400 million. Much of his wealth was acquired through opaque connections with state companies, especially in various segments of the oil-and-gas sector. For example, soon after Yanukovych came to power in 2010, an entity controlled by Kurchenko, VETEK, cornered Ukraine’s liquefied gas market, buying up the entire output that had previously been sold to bidders through an auction, and then reselling it at a substantial profit.

 

All seems legit. The Ukrainians should have let him keep doing this stuff, right? Right Jeba? It was wrong to overthrow this man wasn't it?

 

Let's read on about how he lived at the expense of the Ukrainian people:

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Hunting was just one of Yanukovych’s secret pleasures. He maintained a lifestyle like no other Ukrainian president before or after. Over the years, Yanukovych spent much of his time at an opulent estate, commonly referred to as Mezhyhirya, named after its location about 25 kilometers north of Kyiv.

Spread over 140 hectares of landscaped gardens with artificial lakes, the estate featured every conceivable luxury; spas and gyms, a tennis court, a golf course, a party ship, a helipad, a collection of retro cars and modern yachts, a state-of-the-art lab for testing food, greenhouses for growing it, and even a zoo and dog-breeding facility.

The estate was shrouded in secrecy, with prison-like security and a five-meter fence surrounding its perimeter. As documented in a trove of papers recovered following the Euromaidan Revolution, no expense was spared in Mezhyhirya’s construction. When decorative woodwork was commissioned for the billiards room of the main house, typically referred to as Honka, the bill amounted to $2.2 million. Wooden elements elsewhere in the house cost $3.7 million. Tens of thousands of dollars were spent on bathroom accessories, making them so over-the-top that the common reference became “the golden toilets.” The estate was later transformed into a museum, run by volunteers, that bears witness to Yanukovych’s profligacy.  

 

He also tried desperately to gain full control of the media like his brothers in arms in Belarus and mother Russia:

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Yanukovych and his associates went to considerable lengths to keep extravagances out of the public view. Intimidation tactics were routinely employed to keep the press at bay; censorship (including self-censorship) was common. In 2012-13, the Institute for Mass Information and the Independent Media Trade Union characterized Yanukovych, Prime Minister Mykola Azarov and Interior Minister Zakharchenko as enemies of a free press.

It was an era when mass media outlets – especially television, but also newspapers – were used as weapons in struggles over control of the Ukrainian economy. Accordingly, Family members often sought to buy media outlets that they viewed as nettlesome. Such was the case in 2013, when Kurchenko bought Forbes and its publisher, the Ukrainian Media Holding, in a deal worth a reported $340 million. Around the same time, Arbuzov, the deputy prime minister, set up a TV channel at government expense and took over the newspaper Kapital.

 

You condemn the Euromaidan revolution as something bad. It saved Ukraine from being just like Belarus and Russia you utter cretin. The people were entirely right to take democracy back from this man who had clearly usurped it. If only the Russians were as courageous!

 

https://eurasianet.org/a-brief-history-of-corruption-in-ukraine-the-yanukovych-era

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4 hours ago, jeba said:

Look e.g. at Cuba which has been sanctioned for 60 years and is still sticking to communism.

 

Cuba is not communist, Cuba is socialist.  Yes, the ruling (and only) party is called Cuban Communist Party, but the government is Marxist-Leninist socialist.   And it will be very difficult for them to change because it is written in their constitution, so they will need a new sort of "revolution" that end in a new constitution.  But some day it will happen, probably.

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4 hours ago, jeba said:

 

 

First, we all have to agree on that a pro-Russian president was elected by a majority in a democratic election before he was overthrown by a violent mob. Can we? I miss that part of the story in Western media.

 

 

 

 

Sure we can agree on that, got any proof the west was involved in that? 

 

What does that have to do with the illegal invasion of the Ukraine? 

 

Russia has invaded the Ukraine for no real reason,  the Ukraine did not threaten Russia did it

Russia is the aggressor here.

Russia decided to let a number of countries go free in 1991, Putin did not like that decision, but. Sorry that does not give him the right to ivade the Ukraine to change that decsion

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Latest Russian atrocity has claimed at least 23 civilian lives in a rocket attack on a convoy of cars:

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A civilian convoy of cars heading to pick up relatives trying to flee Russian occupied territory was shelled near the city of Zaporizhzhia on Friday morning, causing fatalities and deaths.

Footage posted on social media showed a horrific scene with dead and injured lying in the road with reports that the convoy was hit more than a dozen times.

In one video, taken from inside a nearby building, a woman can be heard sobbing saying repeatedly: “Dead people are laying there.”

At least one crater was visible in other images that showed cars that had taken the full force of the blast.

The governor of Zaporizhzhia region Oleksandr Starukh said in a statement: “The enemy launched an attack on a civilian convoy and the outskirts of the city. People were standing in line to leave for the occupied territory to pick up their relatives and to deliver aid. There are dead and wounded. Emergency services are at the site.”

These Russian animals need beating.

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https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63086697

At least 23 people have been killed and dozens more injured in a Russian rocket strike on a humanitarian convoy in south Ukraine, local officials say.

A huge crater next to a row of vehicles in the city of Zaporizhzhia testifies to the violence of the attack. Windows and windscreens have been smashed in.

The BBC saw half a dozen bodies lying at the scene, apparently civilians. Baggage and coats strewed the tarmac.

One shocked survivor told the BBC she heard at least three explosions.

Yet another Putin war crime

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President Zelenskiy has said:

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The terrorist state fires rockets at the civilian population in Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, and Dnipropetrovsk. It strikes Ukrainian regions from rocket launchers and drones. The occupiers fired 16 rockets in one morning in Zaporizhzhia district alone. Only complete terrorists can do this, who should have no place in the civilised world. The enemy rages and seeks revenge for our steadfastness and his failures. It cynically destroys peaceful Ukrainians, because it lost everything human a long time ago. Bloodthirsty scum. You will definitely answer for every lost Ukrainian life.

 

Meanwhile we have quislings here wanting to withdraw support from Ukraine and let them be eaten by these wolves.

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The US will "never, never, never" recognise Russia's attempt to annex territory in Ukraine, President Joe Biden has said.

He was speaking ahead of a speech on Friday from Vladimir Putin, who is due to declare that four occupied Ukrainian regions will join Russia.

The Kremlin says Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson backed annexation in five-day referendums.

The so-called votes have been widely condemned outside Russia as a sham.

The US will impose new sanctions on Russia as a result of the annexation.

"The United States, I want to be very clear about this, will never, never, never recognise Russia's claims on Ukraine sovereign territory," Mr Biden said.

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Lyman, an important city held by the russians, is currently surrounded. Inside the city there are thousands of Russian troops, with a lot of equipment. The city could fall into Ukranian hands before the official annexation on Tuesday, and deal a huge blow to Russia's claims.

It seems like Russian leadership told them to hold the city as long as possible, in normal circunstances they would have withdrawn some days ago. Either they surrender quickly or this will be a bloodbath, just so they hold until Tuesday.

 

Putin now talks of "Peace talks". Typical tactic to slow down ukraine and allow russians to regroup. He seems scared.

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When foreigners are calling for a dialogue with RU, I just laugh. We tried it all. If anything, our biggest mistake was being pushovers way too long. Not anymore. Being nice just doesn’t work with Russians. Russia has to be defeated, and for this, we need to #ArmUkraineNow.

This is the final tweet in a great insight into the mind of many Russians from a Ukrainian woman with Russian relatives. I'd have told them all to fuck off long ago:

https://twitter.com/nastasiaKlimash/status/1575649514261618688

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21 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

Lyman, an important city held by the russians, is currently surrounded. Inside the city there are thousands of Russian troops, with a lot of equipment. The city could fall into Ukranian hands before the official annexation on Tuesday, and deal a huge blow to Russia's claims.

It seems like Russian leadership told them to hold the city as long as possible, in normal circunstances they would have withdrawn some days ago. Either they surrender quickly or this will be a bloodbath, just so they hold until Tuesday.

 

Putin now talks of "Peace talks". Typical tactic to slow down ukraine and allow russians to regroup. He seems scared.

 

More on that:

 

"Ukrainian army completing encirclement of Russian troops in Lyman"

 

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"We cannot give details on the places that have been taken yet,” he said.

 

“Since the Armed Forces of Ukraine can bring out and put up the flag, they’re share joyful videos, but the fighting is still ongoing. After taking stabilization measures, it will be possible to say more – when all security measures are taken and there is no enemy counterattack.”

 

According to him, the occupation garrison of Lyman is cut off from the supply of ammunition and manpower.

 

"It is difficult to comment as the operation is still underway,” stated Cherevyi.

 

“The operation is aimed at encircling this group. Virtually all approaches, logistical routes of the enemy through which they delivered ammunition and manpower are under Ukrainian military fire control.”

 

Cherevyi said that the Russian army is much more strongly fortified near Lyman than in other areas.

 

"That's why it took time, but our General Staff and the staff on the ground outplayed them tactically: planning and carrying out the operation at a high level of military experience and training.”

 

The U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War reported in its Sept. 29 update that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had probably almost completed the encirclement of Lyman, as well as cut critical ground lines of communication that support the Russian army troops in the area of Drobysheve-Lyman.

 

"It is highly unlikely that any deployment of additional, newly mobilized, forces to Lyman will afford the existing Russian grouping significant defensive capabilities and prevent Ukrainian troops from collapsing the Lyman pocket," ISW experts noted.

 

https://news.yahoo.com/ukrainian-army-completing-encirclement-russian-141800340.html

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Kamil claims that losing the war to Ukraine is a shame and the end of Putin's legacy. Losing the war to the US is not a shame, because US is seen as an equal partner. Ukraine in the mind of Russians is weak, losing to Ukraine is a shame. So, it is logical that he will try to do everything to actually fight with the West. 

 

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Seems Lyman will be recovered tomorrow. A Russian convoy is trying to break through, no chance to hold it for a few days, as Putin expected. Funny thing is this morning he said the Russian flag would never leave Lyman :D:D:D

 

Ukrainians are being smart. Instead of frontal attacks on entrenched cities, they get all surrounding villages and try to encircle them, forcing russians to flee and saving big cities from war damage.

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20 hours ago, murphaph said:

In any case, we have a simple moral duty to assist Ukraine defend itself.

Why do we have more of a duty to help Ukraine more than say Tibetians, Sudanese, Western Saharans, Armenians, Yemenites

 

etc.? The list is long. And what part of Ukraine do we have a moral duty to assist? The Eastern separatists or Zelensky´s followers? To me, it seems that there are 2 factions (plus those who don´t really care) a pro-Russian one living mainly in the East and Crimea and the pro-Western one living in the Western part. Similar to e.g. Catalania, where there is a strong separatist movement as well - however with the difference that they aren´t violent enough to wage war against each other.

 

20 hours ago, murphaph said:

As for the Russian stooge Yanukovych, well let's read a little of what he got up to after being elected

You can say about him what you want - he was elected in free and fair elections. If you want to topple each leader of a country who is corrupt or failed to keep his promises, there would be a coup somewhere every week. There are constitutional procedures for that.

 

20 hours ago, murphaph said:

you utter cretin.

And this is where the discussion with you ends for me. I`d find it too difficult to keep it civil.

 

19 hours ago, yesterday said:

Sure we can agree on that, got any proof the west was involved in that? 

Where have I said the West was involved? How is it even relevant? My point is that there seem to be 2 opposing factions of Ukrainians and that not all Ukrainians want the kind of support the West is providing. You have to acknowledge that supporting one faction means to antagonize the other, not knowing how big that other faction actually is.

 

19 hours ago, yesterday said:

What does that have to do with the illegal invasion of the Ukraine? 

A lot, at least if you listen to Putin´s narrative of having a moral duty to support the separatists in their fight against an illegal regime and the suppression they suffer from it. Not that I think it justifies the war, though. As I said before: I deem Putin a criminal - even if his narrative were to be believed (which may or may not be the case to some extent).

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Ukraine is in Europe. Germany and the rest of Europe already shamed itself by not intervening in the ethnic cleansing in the former Yugoslavia. The Americans had to step in in our own continent and do it for us. That should never, ever happen again in the continent of Europe. We can't be policemen for the world but we can in our own back yard.

 

Jeba is trying to make this out as a civil war but it isn't. It's an invasion by Russia. 

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4 hours ago, jeba said:

... supporting one faction means to antagonize the other, not knowing how big that other faction actually is.

 

A minority... planted by Putin. You cannot please all the people... doesn t mean you should cede territory.

 

Yugoslavia came to mind, indeed. Seen it all before. The tactics seem not to change much. There was loss of life over stoney mountainous land hundreds of meters wide. Handkerchieves :angry:

 

Which brings us to Spain or Italy... or Germany... or France... or Switzerland historically a patchwork of small regions which still retain their cultural and linguistic identities... to some degree. Should established states be sliced up again ? United Kingdom... Europe :lol:

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Quote

 

Russia vetoed a U.N. resolution Friday that would have condemned its referendums in four Ukrainian regions as illegal, declared them invalid and urged all countries not to recognize any annexation of the territory claimed by Moscow.

The vote in the 15-member Security Council was 10-1 with China, India, Brazil and Gabon abstaining.

The resolution would also have demanded an immediate halt to Russia’s “full-scale unlawful invasion of Ukraine” and the immediate and unconditional withdrawal of all its military forces from Ukraine...

 

 

the rest

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