The War in Ukraine

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Partial mobilisation in Russia to begin today. Lot of nuclear weapons talk. Somebody needs to put a bullet in Putin's head and fast.

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I think the nuclear threat is a bluff, nothing more. He is afraid if he gives the order that it would be refused and he would be put aside. And even if it weren't refused, India and China would leave him alone.

And what is he going to use them against? Is he going to bomb cities? Of course not! And on the vast ukranian plains, they aren't very useful. Use a nuke to kill 1000 ukranian soldiers? Not worth it.

 

The interesting part for me is the partial mobilization. It's not full, so it doesn't piss people off. Middle class from Moscow will keep supporting him, as he will mobilize in the poor areas in the east. So he can bring let's say 100-300.000 troops. Now what? Which weapons? It will be a slaughter, just to keep ukranians away for longer.

 

EDIT: just confirmed by the defense minister. 300.000 troops.

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It would be pretty stupid to nuke the place that you want to take over. It would be "polluted" for ages.

 

Have you all heard about the referendum that will start of Fri.? The people in the occupied territories will decide if they want to be Russia or Ukraine. It will be rigged just like the referendum they did in the Crimea shortly after moving in that said 97% of the population wanted to be Russian. Bullshit.

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It was on the news, that of course 98 % of people will vote to join with Russia (complete fake BS of course). Putin will declare these areas NOW formally part of Russia and if the Ukraine takes them back, Putin will then declare this as an attack on Russia and on that basis the major weapons will fly.

 

We in the west can only give more weapons to Ukraine to hold back and kill the new Russians, we have to trust that the Ukraine will not really cross into Russia itself.

 

Where all these games will end, God only knows

 

Of course  @kaffeemitmilch is right, when a Nuke is used in a planned situation its set off at some altitude, so only the force of the weapon hits the ground but not the radiation, people live in the Japanese cities that were hit with Nukes now. While in an accident the radiation is almost at ground level which will linger for thousands of years

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Everybody is focused on nukes, but let's not forget this opens the door to chemical and biological attacks. These can actually have effect on the battlefield and don't carry the same stigma as nukes.

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8 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

Everybody is focused on nukes, but let's not forget this opens the door to chemical and biological attacks. These can actually have effect on the battlefield and don't carry the same stigma as nukes.

 

I think they do carry the same stigma - dirty war.

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31 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

Everybody is focused on nukes, but let's not forget this opens the door to chemical and biological attacks. These can actually have effect on the battlefield and don't carry the same stigma as nukes.

Given that nukes have never been used on the battlefield it I'm not sure just how much stigma would result, one hell of a lot I suspect, however using chemical and biological weapons would also be practically very risky with the prevailing wind from August to April in the Ukraine from the west they would tend to be blown back into the faces of Russian forces and also into the populated areas they are supposed to be protecting.

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An ex UK general has just been on skynews

 

He said that the 300,000 troops Putin is going to put in place will not make any real difference to the fight, these people are mainly untrained conscripts, who will probably run when in a serious battle.

 

He also said that Putin only said the same things that he has said in the past, ie Russia will use Nukes if Russia is attacked itself. ie not over Ukraine. 

 

Ukraine is in a vastly better position to that it was February, but its sad that one mans aim is going to cause the death of so many people on both sides.

 

Airplane prices to leave Russia have gone up massively

 

 

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1 hour ago, fraufruit said:

 

I think they do carry the same stigma - dirty war.

They have been used in many conflicts and without the same level of stigma.

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I would imagine a raft of secondary sanctions on any countries not currently sanctioning Russia would follow any chemical attack. This would have to include China.

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Suddenly not getting a McDonald's branded BigMac is the least of your worries as a Russian man of fighting age. 

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4 hours ago, murphaph said:

I would imagine a raft of secondary sanctions on any countries not currently sanctioning Russia would follow any chemical attack. This would have to include China.

And probably India. Spoke with some indian friends this week and their mood changed quite a lot, from fierce russian supporters to just wanted this over. They reflect internal perception from Indian media. This came after the meeting between Putin and Modi, where Modi said it's time to end the war.

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10 hours ago, yesterday said:

When India stops buying Russian oil, then I will believe the Indians are acting in a moral way, but unfortunately that's not going to happen

Why would you equate opposition to the war with  being moral? There is absolutely no correlation. India and basically every other county will behave in their self-interest, and if that looks like they are 'doing the right thing', it's because that is what they want.

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https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62981293

Russian police are reported to have arrested hundreds of protesters rallying against the Kremlin's decision to call up thousands of extra troops to fight in Ukraine.

Russian human rights group OVD-Info put the total at more than 1,300. The largest numbers arrested were in St Petersburg and Moscow.

Dozens were held in Irkutsk and other Siberian cities, and Yekaterinburg.

Flights out of Russia sold out fast after Vladimir Putin's announcement.

Pictures on social media showed long queues at border posts, and on Google, the search for "how to leave Russia" skyrocketed.

Russia's president ordered a partial mobilisation, meaning some 300,000 military reservists - but not conscripts - will be drafted to bolster Russia's forces who have suffered recent battlefield reverses in Ukraine.

The move came a day after occupied areas of Ukraine announced snap referendums on joining Russia.

And in remarks condemned by Ukraine and its allies, Mr Putin stressed that he would use "all available means" to protect Russian territory - implying this could involve nuclear weapons.

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3 hours ago, kaffeemitmilch said:

Why would you equate opposition to the war with  being moral? There is absolutely no correlation. India and basically every other county will behave in their self-interest, and if that looks like they are 'doing the right thing', it's because that is what they want.

 

Well actually "opposition to the war" is just an act of hypocrisy in order to save in some way the face.

The facts here are very clear: Russia invaded Ukraine. That is an aggression to a free independent country.

 

Yes, each country acts for its own interest and for sure there is no knight in shining armor here but at the same time it is very clear to which side to stand here from a moral point of view.

History will remember who tried to oppose to Russia and who actually winked at it and saw a chance to make good deals for oil and gas (on the skin of the Ukrainians people).

 

I perceive a rampaging nationalism among Indian people since Modi is ruling but I don't know if Modi is the cause or the consequence of it. Each time I talk with another Indian colleague that I can define a "dissident" :D he always "facepalm" and tell me how sadly are going wrong things in India due to this increased nationalism that helps to mask real people problem.

Great part of my Indian colleagues are not convinced that Russia is to blame for this and actually some of them are even full supporter of this act of aggression. But that's because they are full Modi supporter, so they are completely aligned to his thinking.

 

So Yes, I could expect, and morally accept, China winking and not blaming Russia because historically is in a block opposing the western countries but I see no justification for countries like India.

 

 

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Seems internal version of Putin's communication asks for mobilization of 1.000.000 troops. Same problem: logistics and equipment. Putin is willing to kill hundreds of thousand just to avoid saying he made a mistake.

 

This was common in WW2. Reminds me of Enemy at the Gates scene, where only one in four soviet troops had a rifle. So they would charge without a gun, and pick one when the guy in front died. Also having a machine gun to kill retreating troops sounds exactly what they are working on now with these new laws and using prisioners.

 

Warning: extreme shocking images!

 

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