The War in Ukraine

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20 hours ago, yesterday said:

This doesn't seem like a legitimate reason to close a pipeline

 

20 hours ago, yesterday said:

I can be that this is Putin's latest move to manipulate gas prices

 

20 hours ago, yesterday said:

"do not normally affect the operation of a turbine".

 

Does this sound like proof to you? If Putin wanted to stop gas supplies, why is he still allowing deliveries to the EU via Ukraine and Turkey? And why is he suggesting to use Nordstream 2?

 

20 hours ago, yesterday said:

So why do you believe, Mr Putin rather than Siemens ???

They could both be correct. Where does it say the missing documents need to be provided by Siemens? What I remember is reading that certification from a Russian authority (like the German TÜV) is missing.

 

21 hours ago, yesterday said:

Its bad for Germany to be so dependant on one supplier in general, and Germany need more energy diversification anyway. Its just common sense

 

Of course, being dependent to such a degree is bad. So Germany needs to build up alternatives. That doesn´t mean though, she shouldn´t buy from the cheapest source. Because otherwise there will be a major competitive disadvantage e.g. compared to the US where energy costs are a fraction of what Germany has to pay. It will lead to deindustrialisation.

 

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I see Mr. Appeasement is still going at it.

 

Nobody tell the Ukrainians blasting through the orcs in Kharkiv.

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From the Beeb...

A Ukrainian advance near the eastern city of Kharkiv - which has recaptured several towns - has taken Russia "by surprise", UK defence officials say.

In a daily update, they said Kyiv's forces have advanced 50km (31 miles) into previously Russian-held territory.

The attack has also left thousands of Moscow's troops "increasingly isolated" near the key city of Izyum, they said.

On Friday evening, President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine had retaken 30 settlements in the Kharkiv region.

Speaking from Kyiv during his nightly address, Mr Zelensky said his forces are "gradually taking control of new settlements" and "returning the Ukrainian flag and protection for all our people".

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I wonder if they were really "surprised". This was foreseen by many people. Either Russian generals are incompetent or they are just minimizing their losses and leaving ground where they can't hold it.

I suspect they are afraid of having any significant number of troops entrapped (a few thousands), so they give orders to retreat as soon as there is a small chance of that happening.

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Wooot! Breaking news! Izyum and Kupiansk liberated! That was well before expectations (maybe 5-7 days). As I said, Russians will retreat if they feel the threat of entrapment!

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/10/europe/ukraine-kharkiv-advances-intl-hnk/index.html

 

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/10-september-ukrainian-flag-raised-in-izyum

 

Reports that a 2 star Russian general was captured near Izyum.

 

There are also reports of Russians retreating from much further way, it's possible the whole region will be liberated quickly and Russians retreat to 2014 borders in Donbas area, choosing to focus on Kherson.

If that happens and Kherson falls, it's possible Moscow proposes a cease fire and a return to 2014-2022 borders. Now the question is if Ukranians accept it. They might be forced to, by the west.

 

EDIT: collaborators fleeing Lysychansk and Ukrainian troops in the outskirts of the city! It seems Ukranians want to take advantage of the messy Russian retreat and take as much as possible in one day!

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Some pressure on Kherson. Might fall any day this week. Russian troops must be careful not to get caught in great numbers, along with equipment.

Putin will be hard pressed to negotiate after the fall of Kherson. Either that or to escalate. If Russia does not escalate by formally declaring war, I think this will be over in a few months.

Russian front line is huge and not very deep, meaning most of it is under HIMARS range. After Kherson fall, all occupied territory except Crimea will become easy target for HIMARS.

 

My bet for next targets are Kherson, Lysychansk and Donetsk. But mid term I think they will focus on the south, because after capturing it, it will be easier to defend, as it is away from Russia's border.

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Reports that a T90-M main battle tank has been captured intact by UA forces and that it will likely be spirited away to NATO for dissection. This is Russia's most capable and most modern tank by all accounts. The Russians were thought to be holding them back in UA because (a) They feared one being captured and sent to NATO for dissection and (b) They wanted to keep them in reserve should they actually face NATO tanks in the Baltic States or Poland.

 

Also reports that Russia is "repositioning" submarines from Sevastopol to put them out of UA missile range. This would be very significant as it would mean the home of the Russian Black Sea Fleet is not a safe port anymore. This is going so badly wrong for Putin.

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1 hour ago, murphaph said:

Reports that a T90-M main battle tank has been captured intact by UA forces and that it will likely be spirited away to NATO for dissection. This is Russia's most capable and most modern tank by all accounts. The Russians were thought to be holding them back in UA because (a) They feared one being captured and sent to NATO for dissection and (b) They wanted to keep them in reserve should they actually face NATO tanks in the Baltic States or Poland.

 

Also reports that Russia is "repositioning" submarines from Sevastopol to put them out of UA missile range. This would be very significant as it would mean the home of the Russian Black Sea Fleet is not a safe port anymore. This is going so badly wrong for Putin.

 

ARD are reporting this:

 

Quote

10:41 UhrUkraine schlägt mit russischen Panzern zurück

 

Bei ihrer Gegenoffensive im Nordosten des Landes setzen ukrainische Soldaten nach Angaben von Experten zunehmend auf eroberte russische Panzer.

 

Diese nutzten sie, um ihre Bodengewinne abzusichern und tiefer in die russisch besetzte Region Luhansk einzudringen, hieß es in einer Einschätzung des amerikanischen Think Tanks "Institute for the Study of War"."Die anfängliche Panik der Gegenoffensive brachte russische Soldaten dazu, qualitativ höherwertige und funktionierende Ausrüstung zurückzulassen", erklärten die Experten des Instituts.

 

Beim Abzug aus der Gegend um Kiew im April sei hingegen vor allem beschädigtes Gerät dem Feind überlassen worden.Dies sei ein weiterer Hinweis darauf, wie verheerend die jetzige Niederlage für die Russen gewesen sei. Ukrainische Truppen hatten mit einem Vorstoß in der Gegend um die Stadt Charkiw die russischen Truppen überrascht und große Gebiete zurückerobert.In Videos und Fotos war zu sehen, wie sie Panzer, Waffen und Munition in Besitz nahmen, die von den russischen Soldaten bei ihrem chaotischen Abzug zurückgelassen wurden.

 

Googletrans:

 

10:41 a.m. Ukraine strikes back with Russian tanks

 

According to experts, Ukrainian soldiers are increasingly relying on captured Russian tanks in their counter-offensive in the north-east of the country.

 

According to an assessment by the American think tank "Institute for the Study of War", they used this to secure their ground gains and penetrate deeper into the Russian-occupied Luhansk region leaving working equipment behind," explained the institute's experts.

 

On the other hand, when they pulled out of the Kyiv area in April, most of the damaged equipment was left to the enemy. This is another indication of how devastating the current defeat was for the Russians. Ukrainian troops had surprised the Russian troops with an advance in the area around the city of Kharkiv and recaptured large areas.

 

Videos and photos showed how they seized tanks, weapons and ammunition used by the Russian soldiers during their chaotic retreat were left behind.

https://www.tagesschau.de/newsticker/liveblog-ukraine-dienstag-165.html#Panzer

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VLAD TO SPEAK 

Putin to address Russia TONIGHT in biggest speech since Ukraine invasion as Vlad expected to order full mobilisation

Putin to address Russia TONIGHT in biggest speech since Ukraine invasion as Vlad expected to order full mobilisation | The Sun

 

I just do not know, in the 80 the Sun was all about tits, now they seem to focus one just one tit, what has happened to the world.

 

I do hope they bring enough body bags for their solders, or maybe even thats gone wrong in Russia

 

 

 

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News report he will announce formal war and mass forced mobilization. This is bad for his position, it's a highly unpopular move.

It also does not have an immediate impact, as mobilization, training and deployment can take at least 3 months. Ukraine has to push strong before end of the year!

And he can mobilize a lot of soldiers, but the problem is with which equipment? Will be carnage! Just hope Ukraine can recover large part of the south and that the west gives further weapons before these troops arrive. Perhaps US now sends 300km HIMARS ammo. This would basically keep russians in their places.

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According to my sources they’ve all been instructed to go to sleep tonight and wait and see and maybe he’ll make a speech tomorrow. Sounds like some crazy stuff may be going on behind the scenes.  

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