The War in Ukraine

3,073 posts in this topic

26 minutes ago, jeba said:

What makes me angry is that Nordstream 2 remains closed even though Putin suggested to use it for gas delivery. So, the high prices are self-inflicted merely to save face. Despite all the hardship and damage for residents and economy resulting. What difference does it make whether Russian gas is delivered via pipeline A or pipeline B? It's still Russian gas.

 

This is the naivestestestest thing I have read in the Internets in a very long time.

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4 hours ago, keith2011 said:

Do you really think gas prices will fall significantly if supplies were allowed via Nordstream 2, given that the flow from other pipelines have either been restricted or stopped by Putin?

Yes. It´s completely plausible that due to sanctions, there are technical reasons for diminished supply. He suggested to use NS2, so why should he do that if he wasn´t prepared to allow deliveries. Especially, as it´s in his financial interest. At least worth testing this hypothesis. What´s to lose?

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4 hours ago, Krieg said:

 

This is the naivestestestest thing I have read in the Internets in a very long time.

Anything of substance to say?

4 hours ago, yesterday said:

That is if you believe Mr Putin, most Western experts thinks there is nothing wrong with Nordstream 1, and Mr Putin is just playing political games with the West. As soon as the West agrees to take Gas from Nordstream 2, the Russians will find technical problems with the pipeline and restrict ( after some weeks )  the flow of Gas through it.

That´s just an assumption. Let´s see whether it´s correct, I say.

 

4 hours ago, yesterday said:

Why is it that you have such faith in Putins word

Why is it that you have such faith in Habeck´s  et al. narrative? There is no harm in testing whether his suggestion was insincere. There will not be flowing less gas than zero - as it is now.

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34 minutes ago, jeba said:

Yes. It´s completely plausible that due to sanctions, there are technical reasons for diminished supply. He suggested to use NS2, so why should he do that if he wasn´t prepared to allow deliveries. Especially, as it´s in his financial interest. At least worth testing this hypothesis. What´s to lose?

 

As said already, Putin likes to play games, even if there is no financial gain from it. Germany/EU has said that it want to stop importing stuff from Russia, one example is stopping NS2. So Putin generates a set of circumstances, that leaves the EU/Germany with little gas to so see if he can break that promise - There is no financial gain just the satisfaction of forcing the EU/Germany to comply with the wishes of Putin. Thats what there is to lose. The EU/Germany losses face.

 

The GAS shortages have pushed up the price of GAS, so its not really in the interest of Russia to increase supply and therefore cause a reducing of cost in GAS

 

See here https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-62652133

 

Russia is burn off the gas, straight in the night sky, because it cannot sell it, and thus keeps the Gas price high, nothing to do Putin of course

 

28 minutes ago, jeba said:

Anything of substance to say?

That´s just an assumption. Let´s see whether it´s correct, I say.

 

and how are you going to say its correct or not ? Do you really think Putin will invite western engineer in to check for damage ?? Not very likely

 

So, lets look at the last 30 years or so, have you ever known such gas shortages in EU ??, Strange that they all come at the time, that the West are taking measures against Russia, isnt it ?? Of course the serious problem that have just been found in the last couple months, never happened before. The coincidence value is quite strong do you not think ?

 

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Why is it that you have such faith in Habeck´s  et al. narrative? There is no harm in testing whether his suggestion was insincere. There will not be flowing less gas than zero - as it is now.

 

Habeck´s, is a democratically elected politicisation, if he gets things wrong he can be got rid of.

Putin has turned Russia back in to a dictatorship. Putin has a proven record bad things

 

Humm, who would you rather believe ?

 

 

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15 hours ago, yesterday said:

There is no financial gain just the satisfaction of forcing the EU/Germany to comply with the wishes of Putin.

That´s a ridiculous assumption.

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Thats what there is to lose. The EU/Germany losses face.

Who cares if on the other hand you have a chance of saving your economy? Talk about irrationality.

 

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Russia is burn off the gas, straight in the night sky, because it cannot sell it, and thus keeps the Gas price high, nothing to do Putin of course

That´s normal procedure if you can´t ship gas away. Trump even lifted the caps on flaring gas for US oil and gas producers. You can´t on the one hand refuse to open Nordstream 2 and on the other hand accuse Putin of flaring.

 

15 hours ago, yesterday said:

and how are you going to say its correct or not

By permitting Nordstream 2 and see whether or not gas will flow. Easy.

 

If not, Turkey may have to come to the rescue: https://cyprus-mail.com/2022/09/01/cuba-seeks-more-electricity-supply-from-turkish-powerships/ :lol:

 

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4 hours ago, jeba said:

Trump even lifted the caps on flaring gas

 

Of course he did. It creates so much pollution and black ash, etc. Horrible. He, like Putin, didn't give one whit about the environment.

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6 hours ago, jeba said:

By permitting Nordstream 2 and see whether or not gas will flow. Easy.

 

 

 

Reuters reported putin's gas flaring on August 26.

And the Nordstream (1) 'maintenance' started on Aug 31/Sept 1.

 

So Russian was already flaring gas before NS1 started maintenance.

It follows that Russia was flaring (wasting) gas even though they had the capacity to deliver.

 

I don't think anyone rational thinks otherwise...

 

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Side note: Oil & gas operations burn gas and oil all the time. It's shameful, but part of many maintenance operations.

I worked for a Norwegien ship, specialized in well maintenance, and most of the time excess gas/oil would be burned. Sometimes, a tanker ship would stay nearby and there would be a fuel transfer by flexible pipeline, but this was dangerous under high seas and once one crew member was killed because of this.

Here is the specific ship around 100km offshore in Angola. One of my co-workers spent 1 year there. You can see the oil being burned on the leeward side.

Skandi Aker at block 17 Angola

 

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Would you buy a car 2nd hand from him or trust him to supply your winter fuel? More on AlcaPutin  and the gangster state:-

 

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The chairman of Russia's Lukoil oil giant, Ravil Maganov, has died after falling from a hospital window in Moscow, reports say.

Maganov is the latest of a number of high-profile business executives to die in mysterious circumstances.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62750584

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1 hour ago, mako1 said:

 

Reuters reported putin's gas flaring on August 26.

And the Nordstream (1) 'maintenance' started on Aug 31/Sept 1.

 

So Russian was already flaring gas before NS1 started maintenance.

It follows that Russia was flaring (wasting) gas even though they had the capacity to deliver.

 

I don't think anyone rational thinks otherwise...

 

Nonsense. Nordstream 1 has been working way below capacity for a long time. According to Gazprom because due to the sanctions they are having trouble with their turbines, several of them still in Canada. Sounds very plausible to me.

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12 hours ago, jeba said:

That´s a ridiculous assumption.

Who cares if on the other hand you have a chance of saving your economy? Talk about irrationality.

 

Here is an example of Trump losing face 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2018/11/12/north-korea-played-trump-for-a-fool-just-as-we-knew-they-would/

 

So Trump looks like a fool ( not hard ), everybody told Trump would fail, but no Trump took the Jeba approach, and has lost face, do that enough and people realise you are a fool and will not vote for you.

 

Its called Geopolitics, politicians spend alot of time thinking up ways to show they are the stronger one, games !

 

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That´s normal procedure if you can´t ship gas away. Trump even lifted the caps on flaring gas for US oil and gas producers. You can´t on the one hand refuse to open Nordstream 2 and on the other hand accuse Putin of flaring.

 

By permitting Nordstream 2 and see whether or not gas will flow.      EASY

 

and the West losses face 

 

Its happening all the time all over the world, Putin has shown he cannot be trusted, dealing with him like with NS2, will only end in the West looking stupid, which is the things Putin is after.

 

It kinda like me saying to you that I hid a gold bar under a tree 50kms from your house and you can have, so I give you the map, Jeba gets in car and drives over to pick it up, but unfortunately there is nothing there, of course Jeba says well he has lost nothing, while everybody else is laughing :lol:

 

Looks like another of Putins  victims   https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62750584 

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3 hours ago, yesterday said:

 

Here is an example of Trump losing face 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2018/11/12/north-korea-played-trump-for-a-fool-just-as-we-knew-they-would/

 

So Trump looks like a fool ( not hard ), everybody told Trump would fail, but no Trump took the Jeba approach, and has lost face, do that enough and people realise you are a fool and will not vote for you.

 

Its called Geopolitics, politicians spend alot of time thinking up ways to show they are the stronger one, games !

 

 

Its happening all the time all over the world, Putin has shown he cannot be trusted, dealing with him like with NS2, will only end in the West looking stupid, which is the things Putin is after.

 

It kinda like me saying to you that I hid a gold bar under a tree 50kms from your house and you can have, so I give you the map, Jeba gets in car and drives over to pick it up, but unfortunately there is nothing there, of course Jeba says well he has lost nothing, while everybody else is laughing :lol:

 

Looks like another of Putins  victims   https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62750584 

I doubt that Putin is as childish as you seem to think. He knows what's in his interest. And generating cashflow is!

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Just now, jeba said:

I doubt that Putin is as childish as you seem to think. He knows what's in his interest. And generating cashflow is!

 

But that just the point, the  sanctions have made the oil and gas price very high. He probably makes as much money from selling the smaller amount of gas.

 

He has no real reason to increase the amount of gas supplied, Putin has has had the time to see what happens to the EU, and decided to cut gas production to 40 % then 0 % then 20 %, if he gets enough money from that there is no reason to increase the supply. So he accouches technically problems, with the pipeline    and plays games to get the EU to take gas from NS2, which will of course break once he is laughing that he has broken the will of the EU.

 

 

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11 hours ago, yesterday said:

But that just the point, the  sanctions have made the oil and gas price very high. He probably makes as much money from selling the smaller amount of gas.

Then do away with the sanctions, for god´s sake (and for the sake of our economy)! At least that part that benefits Putin while harming us.

If he wouldn´t want Gazprom to deliver gas they simply wouldn´t restart Nordstream 1 following current maintenance, which they yesterday announced, they will.

 

In the meantime, Russia is making herself independent of pipeline delivery of gas, basically by nationalizing LNG terminal projects: https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/shell-walks-away-from-major-russian-lng-project-with-nothing-1.1813505?utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_campaign=rta-stock-news&messageid=2900&mailingid=28921876&serial=28921876.4496&utm_term=28921876.4496&source=email_2900&utm_medium=email


 

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Shell Plc will walk away from Russia’s Sakhalin-2 liquefied natural gas project with nothing after President Vladimir Putin transferred the major facility to a new operating company. 

The London-based firm’s decision is the latest indication that Putin won’t allow international energy companies to realize big financial gains as they exit Russia over the invasion of Ukraine. The president has also issued a decree that blocks Exxon Mobil Corp. from selling its interest in the Sakhalin-1 oil project until the end of the year...

 

.... Shell’s decision not to join the new Sakhalin-2 operating company is in line with the push by European governments to lessen economic ties with Russia over the invasion of Ukraine. Even so, the move could hand even more energy revenue to Russia if Gazprom absorbs the rest of Shell’s stake.

 

It´s mindboggling.

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24 minutes ago, jeba said:

 

It´s mindboggling.

 

Only if you believe we should forget about what has been happening to the Ukraine and continue trading with the gangster state!

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1 hour ago, jeba said:

 

Then do away with the sanctions, for god´s sake (and for the sake of our economy)! At least that part that benefits Putin while harming us.

If he wouldn´t want Gazprom to deliver gas they simply wouldn´t restart Nordstream 1 following current maintenance, which they yesterday announced, they will.

 

In the meantime, Russia is making herself independent of pipeline delivery of gas, basically by nationalizing LNG terminal projects: https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/shell-walks-away-from-major-russian-lng-project-with-nothing-1.1813505?utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_campaign=rta-stock-news&messageid=2900&mailingid=28921876&serial=28921876.4496&utm_term=28921876.4496&source=email_2900&utm_medium=email


 

 

It´s mindboggling.

 

And sacrifice the Ukraine to Putin, sorry at the moment no, I think people can be a little bit colder without real harm, put on another layer of clothing.

 

We should remember inflation and high gas prices were starting before the conflict in Ukraine. Sure sanctions have made things worse in the West but also much much worse in Russia.

 

In one of your early posts you said you are against the invasion of the Ukraine, but you are not willing to take any measures to stop Russia if it hurts Germany, so ,more or less you are silently supporting the war, because all wars hurt both sides to some extent.

 

LNG will never replace the sales from the pipeline, because it has to be loaded into a ship, the ship may take 70 days to get to south China, then it has to turn around with nothing in it, meaning a round trip of 140 days, if you want to double, that you need another ship, it will take many years to build enough ships to supply China. A new pipeline to China will also take many years to build. 

 

As long as  sanctions  continue, Russia is more hurt than the west but them sure Germany is hurt quite a lot by the  sanctions , but it was Germany who pushed most in this direction to be friendly to Russia. You seem to feel that the mistake Germany made by being to dependant to Russia, means it should not take any pain to help to bring Russia off the high, as normal you just want all the benefits without any or the responsibility that comes with it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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59 minutes ago, keith2011 said:

 

Only if you believe we should forget about what has been happening to the Ukraine and continue trading with the gangster state!

With that argument you could stop globalization altogether. No more trade with China (Tibet), Saudi Arabia (Yemen, Kashoggi), Brazil (genocide on indigenous people, https://www.nzz.ch/panorama/einsamster-mann-der-welt-gestorben-mit-seinem-tod-ist-der-genozid-an-diesem-indigenen-volk-abgeschlossen-ld.1700318?kid=nl166_2022-8-30&ga=1&mktcid=nled&mktcval=166_2022-08-30&reduced=true), Morocco (ignoring UNO resolution to stop occupying Western Sahara so that recently Polisario terminated the truce) and the list goes on. Last not least the USA (murder of Allende, on 9/11 1973, weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, Grenada invasion,The Gulf Of Tonkin Incident: The Lie That Sparked The Vietnam War, ...). For reference, see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MCToMDEaefo&t=23s

 

Apart from that sanctions don´t work. See e.g. Cuba, Iraq, Iran.

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1 hour ago, jeba said:

Then do away with the sanctions, for god´s sake (and for the sake of our economy)! At least that part that benefits Putin while harming us.

What part of

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do away with the sanctions, for god´s sake (and for the sake of our economy)! At least that part that benefits Putin while harming us.

did you not understand?

 

And if you think it´s only about having to put on warnmer clothing, that´s childish. Do you have an idea which effect energy prices are having on the the competitiveness of the economy?

 

To get some more balanced perspective on the Ukraine issue and if you have command of German you might want to watch volker pispers - über russland ukraine, nato and this interview with the former head economist of the Landesbank Bremen (especially the part starting at 27:55): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JyLoPh9ml14

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