The War in Ukraine

2,624 posts in this topic

1 hour ago, yourkeau said:

This is how German imperialism works: fuck the EU, pay peanuts to claim "but we are the net contributor to the EU". 

In 2012 Germany refused to increase inflation in the Eurozone to help indebted Greece, but instead it borrowed it the money. 

 

Germans know how to manipulate to make them look good. 

 

 

 

 

As far as I remember, Greece borrowed a lot of money that it could not pay back, the EU and Germany lent Greece enough money that that would not go broke and stay in the EU at rates well below the free market price, which is what Greece wanted they had the option to leave.

 

Of course part of this price was that Greece, had to reform a corrupt system of accounting so that Germany could see the really picture of the Greek econ many, which is a good thing as it can now grow in a real way.

 

Let me ask you, if you go into a bar and order so much drink that you can not pay it, would you expect that the bar should loan you the money to pay the bar bill ???. Don't think so. Greece borrowed more than it could pay back and had a system, that you could not tell how much money it had, they made the fault, Germany and the EU provided cheap loans to help them out and reforms to the finical system, Greece accepted that. Its not Germany's fault Greece borrowed too much.

 

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28 minutes ago, yesterday said:

Let me ask you, if you go into a bar and order so much drink that you can not pay it, would you expect that the bar should loan you the money to pay the bar bill ???. Don't think so.

So, why did they loan the money then? Because the barkeeper is a major mafia boss, so he gave the money to pay the bill but the price was to sell cocaine for him. Then the poor guy gets caught by the cops and goes to prison. End of story. 

 

And now since this comparison is the total bullshit, let's return to a better example: taking a mortgage. In 2007 the banks in the US gave money to people who could not pay the loan, then kicked these people out of their homes, sold them, and got a nice paycheck from the government (led by a right-wing free-market capitalist party). 

 

I own some Israeli government bonds and I understand that if the government goes broke I can lose my money. I do not need the Germans to save me, no thanks. 

 

 

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22 hours ago, optimista said:

 

This is universally applicable to each and every country of the EU. No one joined Europe for altruistic reasons.

 

 

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10 minutes ago, yourkeau said:

 

And now since this comparison is the total bullshit, let's return to a better example: taking a mortgage. In 2007 the banks in the US gave money to people who could not pay the loan, then kicked these people out of their homes, sold them, and got a nice paycheck from the government (led by a right-wing free-market capitalist party). 

 

I own some Israeli government bonds and I understand that if the government goes broke I can lose my money. I do not need the Germans to save me, no thanks. 

 

 

 

Sure things can always go wrong with anything, including financial situations.

 

When the bank loaned money in 2007, they met all the necessary laws for loaning out money. But thats not the end of the story,  Things can always change in the financial markets, when they did and it broke the expected conditions of of that loan, thats when things went wrong.

 

You should never assume 100 % guarantee in anything in life, shit can always happen. Sure I am sorry for the people who got burned. I have been burned in some of my finicail transactions as well. But I am doing it to try and get ahead of the others, buy buying various financial products. Its my fault for buying these products.

 

There is no 100 % risk free investment, if you had say 100,000 euro's in a bank in the Ukraine, if the Russians win they can just take it, and you cannot do anything about it. Sure its unlikely but it could happen. If you had bought a house in Ukraine and the Russians bombed it, no insurance is going to cover the re-build of that house.

 

If I put 100,00 Euro in  German bank  there is always a small chance that bank goes bust, and there is always an even smaller chance the Government is be in a bad situation and not bail you out, but its could happen.

 

Going back to Greece, they borrowed that money, they did not have to, they faced going broke, because nobody would lend them money. The EU / Germany/ IMF, agreed to loan money at very low interest rates to save them, they did not have to. I agreed with that decision. But  I also agreed that the rest of the EU should not just give them the money, even thou we have it, Because other countrys should see there are negative consequences to not managing your finance correctly 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, yesterday said:

As far as I remember, Greece borrowed a lot of money that it could not pay back, the EU and Germany lent Greece enough money that that would not go broke and stay in the EU at rates well below the free market price, which is what Greece wanted they had the option to leave.

 

I wonder, looking back on the outcome, how Greek people feel about it today and if it might have been a much better choice to have defaulted.

An explanation from the finance minster of the time:

 

 

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Wow. That s quite an argument. But needs digesting. Indeed, Greek debt was transferred to other EU tax payers. But he complains Greek income was forcibly shrunk. Well yeah, they were expected to pay somehow. The Greek taxpayer was not gonna pay. The Greeks are notorious for not paying taxes. So it had to be another way. 

 

:ph34r:

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1 hour ago, yesterday said:

Going back to Greece, they borrowed that money, they did not have to, they faced going broke, because nobody would lend them money. The EU / Germany/ IMF, agreed to loan money at very low interest rates to save them, they did not have to. I agreed with that decision.

This is not really what happened. Germany borrowed money after a lot of bullying and threats of Greece to leave the Eurozone. 

 

I am convinced that temporarily leaving the euro would have been better for Greece. But they surrendered to the bully. 

 

The point I am trying to make is that borrowing and lending are a two-party process. Both parties carry responsibility, not just one of them. There was no pressure  to buy the securities of indebted countries. Why did the Germans do it? Because they knew that the Bundesregierung will save Greece. 

 

The bullying here reminds me the bullying of Russia in 1990s and early 2000s against Ukraine. 

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15 minutes ago, yourkeau said:

This is not really what happened. Germany borrowed money after a lot of bullying and threats of Greece to leave the Eurozone. 

 

I am convinced that temporarily leaving the euro would have been better for Greece. But they surrendered to the bully. 

 

The point I am trying to make is that borrowing and lending are a two-party process. Both parties carry responsibility, not just one of them. There was no pressure  to buy the securities of indebted countries. Why did the Germans do it? Because they knew that the Bundesregierung will save Greece. 

 

The bullying here reminds me the bullying of Russia in 1990s and early 2000s against Ukraine. 

Bullying is the way of the world my friend, like everyone <cough> Israel <cough> does.

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14 minutes ago, yourkeau said:

 

The point I am trying to make is that borrowing and lending are a two-party process. Both parties carry responsibility, not just one of them. There was no pressure  to buy the securities of indebted countries. Why did the Germans do it? Because they knew that the Bundesregierung will save Greece. 

 

 

It was German Banks which loaned Greece the money. The German Government had a choice, bailout its banks or bailout Greece.

 

Much easier to justify (with the German public) bailing out Greece than bailing out the German banks.

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1 hour ago, RenegadeFurther said:

It was German Banks which loaned Greece the money.

Why did they do it? Did they give money at gunpoint? If I go to the German bank, will I get a 1 million loan? No. When you answer the question of how come risk-averse German banks invested in high-risk Greece, you will understand what I understand. BTW, you do not list this affair in your Merkel thread, but this is the most corrupt thing she has done. 

 

1 hour ago, fraufruit said:

So the bullies saved Greece. OK.

The word "saved" you will not find in my vocabulary. The Germans destroyed the Greek economy and milked it. This is the German way to destroy countries after WWII when military action was no longer possible. 

 

1 hour ago, kaffeemitmilch said:

Bullying is the way of the world my friend, like everyone <cough> Israel <cough> does.

?

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1 hour ago, yourkeau said:

Why did they do it? Did they give money at gunpoint? If I go to the German bank, will I get a 1 million loan? No. When you answer the question of how come risk-averse German banks invested in high-risk Greece, you will understand what I understand. BTW, you do not list this affair in your Merkel thread, but this is the most corrupt thing she has done. 

 

The word "saved" you will not find in my vocabulary. The Germans destroyed the Greek economy and milked it. This is the German way to destroy countries after WWII when military action was no longer possible. 

 

?

 

I prepared a graph for you: Greece had a sharp growth bubble in part by playing with the numbers, and when the big crisis hit they couldn't swim. Their economy is not destroyed, it just popped to a lower level. Their GDP ist still 13x bigger than in 1970. Germany or no Germany the bubble would have popped, as the world doesn't owe Greece the kind of growth they had between 2000 and 2008.

 

gdp_greece_germ.jpg

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13 minutes ago, Anna66 said:

Latest news

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10900819/Two-Britons-captured-Russian-forces-sentenced-death-fighting-Ukraine.html

Terrible :(

I really hope Boris can do something to get them pardoned. Maybe a swop of POW's?

 

So they plan to execute the foreign captives from Mariupol. What fate for the 1000 or so Ukrainians they took to Russia?

Not exactly a clever move on the part of Russia (DPR). Many in Mariupol thought they had little choice but to fight to the death.

I am sure others will see this and decide its best to fight to the bitter end, which in turn means higher Russian casualties.

Doubly dumb in terms of the value of 'foreign' nationals and the potential to exchange prisoners and/or otherwise gain leverage.

Maybe a deliberate move by Russia to deter foreign involvement, but does not seem particular smart in the wider context of things.

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According to this https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-two-british-fighters-sentenced-to-death-in-separatist-area-russian-state-media-says-12630854

 

They were captured in Mariupol in April during the intense fight for control of the port city, before appearing in court in the separatist Donetsk People's Republic (DPR).

 

So I guess they were not part of the steelworks conflict 

 

It is understood they have admitted "training in order to carry out terrorist activities

The men were found guilty of "mercenary activities and committing actions aimed at seizing power and overthrowing the constitutional order of the DPR

 

Sad Very sad.

 

I guess the Russians hope that less people will be tempted to fight for the Ukraine, if this is what is going to happen to you.

 

They are likely to face a firing squad if the sentence is carried out.    

 

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Maybe the Ukraine should  reciprocate by putting any Russia mercenary pow's on trial as I understand there are numbers of Syrians and Chechens who have joined the Russians.

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21 hours ago, scook17 said:

 

I wonder, looking back on the outcome, how Greek people feel about it today and if it might have been a much better choice to have defaulted.

An explanation from the finance minster of the time:

 

 

 

 

Interesting video !!!

 

But you have to remember, this guy was kicked out of the negotiations, for his unusual thinking, and sure he will want to defend himself on TV.

 

The deal Greece got was a standard one in every way. 

 

Banks always have more rights to the cash in every western country, its not fair, but it causes a lot of damage to a country if banks go bust, so they get the protection.

 

We should remember, Greece has paid back all the money the IMF lent to it, and is paying off the money the EU/Germany lent to it at the moment.

 

The Eu tax payers will get there money back, this was a loan not a gift.

 

Greece can move forward now, with a more stable country.

 

If Greece had defaulted, their economy, would have been in the shit house for the next 20 years.

 

Greece had to take the pain, what Yanis, wanted was that the EU should pay for everything, and let them carry on as normal, which no country can do in the long term, you have to balance the books on your own in the end, an not just say "EU/Germany can pay for our mistakes"

 

 

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On 1.6.2022, 10:33:55, scook17 said:

Who exactly is putting up the gas/oil price? Was this all not defined by long term contracts?

 

There are reasons why gas had mainly been bought at the spot market: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4517815-ger-can-this-cef-capitalize-on-increased-european-lng-demand?mailingid=28021851&messageid=2800&serial=28021851.77&utm_campaign=rta-stock-article&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=28021851.77

 

Quote

European countries decided not to sign longer-term deals with Russia even before the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. They have rather decided to rely on spot prices by trying to meet supply and demand for natural gas in the short run. In our view, it is really difficult to plan for long-term supply when you have to rely on volatile spot prices. Our readers should keep in mind that the power market is very unpredictable, especially in European countries, where there are multiple weather factors that have an impact on power prices and overall energy consumption-production trends.

Such examples might be, a higher number than expected sunny days in Spain, South France or Italy, which brings up higher power generation from solar panels, not enough wind in the Netherlands or coastal UK area, thus leading to not adequate enough power generation from wind farms, or higher than expected rainfall in France, Germany creating a higher power generation from hydrogen sources. When we plan for all of these factors, it really makes sense why European countries decide to buy natural gas on the spot market, to meet discrepancies of alternative sources. This can also be reflected during the earnings call transcript below on why European utilities do not sign long-term contracts.

 

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