The War in Ukraine

3,073 posts in this topic

4 hours ago, Keleth said:

The goal of propaganda is not to make neutrals believe your side but for neutrals to not believe the other side either.

Sure.

 

However, I don't think this is propaganda which makes the Germans do what they are doing.

 

Smart Sascha Lobo has coined the term I was looking for but could not name it: Der Deutsche Lumpen-Pazifismus

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Wenn man von den deutschen Lumpen-Pazifisten die vielen Schichten des platten Antiamerikanismus entfernt, dann bleibt ein Kern übrig. Nämlich die Mischung aus dem Recht des Stärkeren und der Täter-Opfer-Umkehr, die schon Gandhi zusammengemanscht hat: »Wenn die Juden, anstatt hilflos und notgedrungen gewaltlos zu sein, sich wohlüberlegt Gewaltfreiheit, das heißt Mitgefühl, für die nichtjüdischen Deutschen zu eigen machten, so könnten sie den Deutschen nicht nur keinen Schaden zufügen, sondern würden – da bin ich mir so sicher, wie ich diese Zeilen diktiere – das härteste deutsche Herz schmelzen.«

Reading is recommended.

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3 minutes ago, yourkeau said:

However, I don't think this is propaganda which makes the Germans do what they are doing.

It´s not zee Germans though,it is their leaders or should I say leader because even the coalition appears to be turning against Scholz.The Germans themselves have been shown to be in favour of helping Ukraine but Scholz seems to be sailing against the wind of popular opinion.

 

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2 hours ago, yesterday said:

Germany to send Anti Aircraft tanks (?) to Ukraine

But no ammunition since Switzerland refused to give permission ( they have a right to veto as they were involved in production).

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It's more like an own goal. it just speeds up Europe's commitment to stop using Russian gas.

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17 hours ago, jeba said:

But no ammunition since Switzerland refused to give permission ( they have a right to veto as they were involved in production).

Is anything good coming out of that parasitic country??

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20 hours ago, jeba said:

But no ammunition since Switzerland refused to give permission ( they have a right to veto as they were involved in production).

 

Brazil found a box in the cellar.

Ready to ship 300.000 shells for the Gepard.

 

here

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9 hours ago, French bean said:

it just speeds up Europe's commitment to stop using Russian gas.

 

Europe is arrogant enough not to think about Putin simply shutting off our gas and oil on any given day. We think we have control over how much to use and for how long.

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Well, Russia is trying to show strength, that it can shut off gas to some places in Europe. But you notice its shuts down Poland and  Bulgaria. But Russia has not shut down Germany or Italy.

 

Why not 

 

Because Germany and Italy buy huge amounts of Gas from Russia, if Russia set on these countries, it would lose a huge amount of money that it is making, to finance the war in Ukraine.

 

If Russia was to stop EU Gas, the Russian economy  would lose 40 % of its income for the year, which is a huge loss of money to pay pensions in Russia and pay for the war in Ukraine.

 

Thats why Russia is picking on 2 relatively small Gas usage countries to make the point.

 

Its worth while noting, that Germany got itself in two deep with Russia, because it thought Russia would not want to lose the income from Gas sales to the EU and hence it would be mostly friendly to the EU and EU would be friendly to Russia because it did not want to lose Russian GAS.  That calculation all went wrong when Putin did, what he did in the Ukraine. For now, we pay Russia but try and get supplies from else where. Russia knows now that it has lost the source of income in the middle term, it it stops Gas supplies to the EU in one big shot, it will hurt the Russian economy in a big way, so it will try and keep it going for as long as possible. Just hitting smaller countries, that it will not lose much money on. 

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2 hours ago, yesterday said:

Thats why Russia is picking on 2 relatively small Gas usage countries to make the point.

I think you´re jumping to conclusions. AFAIK in contrast to Germany Poland and Bulgaria refused to pay via Gazprombank which will convert payment to roubles before forwarding it.  What makes you think that this isn´t the reason?

3 hours ago, yesterday said:

Russia knows now that it has lost the source of income in the middle term

The contract with BASF expires in 2030 only. It´s a "take or pay" contract, by the way, which is common in the pipeline industry.

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12 hours ago, yesterday said:

Well, Russia is trying to show strength, that it can shut off gas to some places in Europe. But you notice its shuts down Poland and  Bulgaria. But Russia has not shut down Germany or Italy.

 

Why not 

 

Because Germany and Italy buy huge amounts of Gas from Russia, if Russia set on these countries, it would lose a huge amount of money that it is making, to finance the war in Ukraine.

 

If Russia was to stop EU Gas, the Russian economy  would lose 40 % of its income for the year, which is a huge loss of money to pay pensions in Russia and pay for the war in Ukraine.

 

Thats why Russia is picking on 2 relatively small Gas usage countries to make the point.

 

Its worth while noting, that Germany got itself in two deep with Russia, because it thought Russia would not want to lose the income from Gas sales to the EU and hence it would be mostly friendly to the EU and EU would be friendly to Russia because it did not want to lose Russian GAS.  That calculation all went wrong when Putin did, what he did in the Ukraine. For now, we pay Russia but try and get supplies from else where. Russia knows now that it has lost the source of income in the middle term, it it stops Gas supplies to the EU in one big shot, it will hurt the Russian economy in a big way, so it will try and keep it going for as long as possible. Just hitting smaller countries, that it will not lose much money on. 

 

I have no real knowledge of the situation, but taking what you wrote at face value...it wasn't necessarily a terrible idea. In hindsight, we can say it has backfired. But making Russia reliant on European money in order to avoid a European conflict with Russia...well, it sounds plausible. I dare say that the situation may be even worse if Russia was not dependant on EU money?

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We're going to look back at this terrible war and thank Putin for getting us off their oil and gas sooner. It's the most spectacular miscalculation of any world leader in recent decades. What's the point in being reliant on a gas supplier who breaches contract? Russia is contractually obliged to accept Euro for gas, not monopoly money. They are in clear breach of contract. The EU correctly sees reliance on Russian energy as a strategic liability now. In fairness to Poland they have seen it as such for many years and began taking steps to eliminate that reliance, which they have almost managed and with their new pipeline from Norway due to come on stream this year they will have done. German politicians thought the Poles were being hysterical (most of us did) but they were being very shrewd operators. I guess experience taught them a valuable lesson: Russia cannot be trusted.

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We've had warnings in the past about Russia turning the gas off. IIRC they did it to Ukraine a couple of years back accusing them of stealing gas. As for breach of contract, are the Russians really bothered by such a thing when they've invaded another country. The Chinese and the Indians to a lesser extent will take whatever Europe doesn't. It just means the world suppliers will be swapping customers around.

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51 minutes ago, murphaph said:

We're going to look back at this terrible war and thank Putin for getting us off their oil and gas sooner. It's the most spectacular miscalculation of any world leader in recent decades. What's the point in being reliant on a gas supplier who breaches contract? Russia is contractually obliged to accept Euro for gas, not monopoly money. They are in clear breach of contract. The EU correctly sees reliance on Russian energy as a strategic liability now. In fairness to Poland they have seen it as such for many years and began taking steps to eliminate that reliance, which they have almost managed and with their new pipeline from Norway due to come on stream this year they will have done. German politicians thought the Poles were being hysterical (most of us did) but they were being very shrewd operators. I guess experience taught them a valuable lesson: Russia cannot be trusted.

You really are unbelievable.  How low can you actually go.

 

The EU is funding this war.

 

Since the start of the war.

 

EU to Russia: 35 BILLION Euros. 

EU to Ukraine: 1 billion Euros.

 

Even after the annexation of Crimea the EU (Merkel) still went ahead with Nord Stream 2.

 

Really remarkable that in all these pages of debate or ranting no one dares criticise Merkel.

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