Posted 30 March It's not very likely considering all of the Americans who buy American Made only. Well, what they think is American made. 0 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted 30 March And all the Germans that think German cars are the only well made cars in the world! 0 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted 30 March Its still not certain that the law to ban ICE cars by 2035 will come in to law, many EU countries around Europe are not happy with it. Germany seems to have accepted a work around that ICE cars can be sold after 2035, if they can run on e-fuels, but I thought all ICE cars can run on e-fuels, so whats the point of the law ? https://www.euronews.com/green/2023/03/22/eu-to-ban-petrol-and-diesel-cars-by-2035-heres-why-some-countries-are-pushing-back#:~:text=%22Tomorrow%20in%20Brussels%2C%20at%20the,the%20time%20of%20the%20vote. 0 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted 30 March There is no point except that Porsche and Ferrari etc. will be able to keep making exotic cars with ICEs for people with enough money and not enough sense to buy them. They will be allowed to run them as long as they ONLY run them on e-fuels except more and more cities are already introducing clean air laws that prohibit certain classes of ICE from entering. By 2035 it will be much stricter and by 2045 you probably won't be allowed to drive an ICE of any description within a European city, even if it's technically legal to still make e-fuel burning ICEs. The whole e-fuels thing is just not cost effective in personal passenger transport, so it will not be deployed anywhere except in exotic sports cars and the like where money never was an object. 99%+ of new passenger cars sold in the EU in 2035 will be BEVs because they will also be the cheapest kind of car to manufacture by then. The tipping point is coming sooner than many thought. An EV is likely to be cheaper than the equivalent ICE model by as soon as 2025. You will not be allowed to put fossil fuel in a car registered post 2035. Legacy ICEs will continue to use fossil fuels (where available!) for a few years after that but petrol stations are going to start closing even before 2035. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted 30 March 58 minutes ago, yesterday said: Germany seems to have accepted a work around that ICE cars can be sold after 2035, if they can run on e-fuels, but I thought all ICE cars can run on e-fuels, so whats the point of the law ? To be able to continue building new ICE cars. The existing ones are not banned in 2035 they can even continue running on fossil fuel. And the door is open to build new ICE cars on e-fuel that is not compatible with old ICEs. 0 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted 30 March 1 hour ago, Krieg said: And the door is open to build new ICE cars on e-fuel that is not compatible with old ICEs. And cars that are not compatible with fossil fuels. I wonder how they do that, and will there be a black market of replacement ECUs that get around it. 0 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted 30 March When they introduced E10 benzine the cars that were not compatible with it didn't receive any retrofit option. But E10 is a scam anyway. 0 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted 30 March There will be so few new ICE cars of any description being sold in 2035 that finding a place to buy the e-fuels will soon become your biggest problem. Filling stations will not stay open to service a niche market. Even finding fossil fuels will rapidly become quite a challenge off the main routes. 0 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted 30 March 6 hours ago, murphaph said: I wouldn't go that far Mike. Do your really believe that there will be no US, Japanese or European car makers in 2035? Ford probably survives. GM definitely not. In Europe, VW probably survives (but loses Audi, probably sold to chinese), and Mercedes will definitely survive as a niche brand. BMW will be sold to Chinese. French and Italian brands will be gone. Volvo is already chinese. In Japan, it's trickier, due to protectionism. I think Toyota will survive, but based on internal market, and probably down to 2M cars a year. Others will not. In Korea, Hyundai and Kia (same company) have a fair chance. This is all due to: - shrink of the auto market - inability to quickly change - inability to achieve vertical integration - reluctance to change to EVs and SW (especially BMW!) - huge debt - continuous investment in ICE factories which can't be converted to EVs I think by 2035 the global market will be divided as - 30-35% chinese - 20% Tesla - 15% European - 10-15% Ford - rest by Toyota and Koreans I also think that companies like Mercedes might license Tesla powertrain, battery and software. There will be many "boutique" brands based on Tesla. Of course, this can all change due to geopolitics, like a war with Taiwan. Or a potential attack from China against what is left of Russia. 0 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted 30 March 6 hours ago, yesterday said: Its still not certain that the law to ban ICE cars by 2035 will come in to law, many EU countries around Europe are not happy with it. Irrelevant, nobody will buy an ICE by then. 0 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted 30 March Why would Ford survive while GM dies? I think it would be the other way around if anything. Ford has completely failed to develop anything EV and is known to be a fairly badly run company. GM at least developed the Chevy Bolt (and the Opel Ampera was based on it). Ford is going to be lucky not to go bankrupt paying VW to use its platform for the next couple of years until they can get their own developed. I cannot see VW being able to part company with Audi. A lot of the cars in the whole VW group are based on platforms developed by Audi. That would be a loss of enormous human capital to sell Audi to another company and it would directly impact the entire VW group massively. More likely would be the sale of the Seat or Skoda brands to be honest. Toyota has also backed the wrong horse altogether. They have already publicly admitted their complete failure by asking BYD to build EVs for them. Toyota thought that passenger cars would be hydrogen powered and persisted and persisted with this idea, completely ignoring BEV technology until it was too late. Nissan is probably in the best position of the Japanese car makers, being part of the Renault-Nissan group, which has been a pioneer in BEVs. The others are all going to struggle I think. 0 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted 30 March No, Ford is actually improving quite a lot on their EVs. The Bolt from GM is a complete disaster. Ford is setting up a separate company for their EVs, i.e. they expect that the ICE company dies, and doesn't drag down the EV company. That company was set up to be independent from ICE Ford, and with a clear goal of catching up with Tesla. I think they will survive. GM won't. Vast majority of those "special" Audi workers are useless for the EV future. An EV company needs to be driven by electrotechnic and SW engineers, not mechanical engineers. VW will need to raise cash, probably selling Audi to Chinese. Audi won't be competitive anyway. Porsche will be profitable. Seat will disappear, but I think Skoda will be their cheaper cars. Toyota knew hydrogen was a bad option, even they admitted it a few years ago. It was pure corporate bullshit, as a push for EVs will either destroy the Keyretsu structure, or will destroy Toyota. Nissan is dead. Not big enough, and they haven't done anything good for the past several years. The Leaf is way behind all the others. 0 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted 31 March Humm, speculation at its best. I do not really know what will really happen, I do not think anybody really does. At the moment I find it hard to believe this speculation, but of course it could come true. I think we should consider the global impacts of this as well, eg USA or China is not planning the ban on ICE cars, neither is most of the world, its just the UK and EU who are are talking tough at the moment. Toyota will be able to sell ICE cars to Africa, USA etc etc for many years to come, including 2050. I also do not believe that the Germans will throw brands like BMW, Audi and VW under the bus, because of national pride and jobs, if these brands come under threat, changes will be made to any agreement that is put in place now. If you read the article above I posted, ICE cars make about 12 % of bad emissions at the moment, Germany will not want to throw that away that industry, for the sake of a high emitter, but is no way the worst. It will push for a measured response. EV production is still very low in comparison to ICE cars currently, Even Tesla, are not ramping up production, while they have cash in the bank to build further production. Tesla, are just building the cars they can sell at a high margin that they think they can sell. I still think price is an issue, maybe cheaper EV's will come, maybe not, anybodies guess, but at the moment NO EV's can compete on price with the cheapest ICE car, ie 12,000 euro on the road, with a much better range than an an EV made costing more than 100,000 Euro. If you remove the option of poorer people to get to work it will have a negative effect on the economy in general, this will of course need to be considered by Governments. When you consider all of these things, I think EV's will take longer to become the dominate force that they will become in the end. But as said, this is all speculation, 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted 31 March 33 minutes ago, yesterday said: I think we should consider the global impacts of this as well, eg USA or China is not planning the ban on ICE cars, neither is most of the world, its just the UK and EU who are are talking tough at the moment. Quote If you haven't heard already, the California Air and Resources Board (CARB) approved a monumental regulation this past week. By the year 2035, all manufacturers in California will no longer be able to sell vehicles solely with Internal Combustion Engines (ICE). Meaning in just twelve years you will not be able to purchase a brand-new car with a gasoline-powered engine. 14 states are considering ICE bans. 0 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted 31 March NYT- California to Require Half of All Heavy Trucks Sold by 2035 to Be Electric article by subscription only 0 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted 31 March The $7,500 tax credit to buy an electric car is about to change yet again...US. battery sourcing requirements. https://www.npr.org/2023/03/31/1167084120/electric-vehicles-cars-tax-credit-climate-bill 0 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted 31 March 21 hours ago, MikeMelga said: Ford probably survives. GM definitely not. I think you are really underestimating Union votes, lobbying and campaign contributions. Not to mention this and past US loans December 2022: U.S. finalizes $2.5 billion loan to GM, LG battery joint venture https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-finalizes-25-billion-loan-gm-lg-battery-joint-venture-2022-12-12/#:~:text=WASHINGTON%2C%20Dec%2012%20(Reuters),and%20LG%20Energy%20Solution%20(373220. 0 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted 31 March 4 hours ago, catjones said: I think you are really underestimating Union votes, lobbying and campaign contributions. Not to mention this and past US loans So what? Unions won't be able to do shit about bankrupt companies. NOBODY will buy crappy ICE cars in 2035! Get that on your mind! GM is trailing, they won't be able to get competitive. Loans? What for? To delay it for a couple of years? 0 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted 31 March On 3/11/2023, 11:35:10, MikeMelga said: 2 minutes ago, MikeMelga said: So what? Unions won't be able to do shit about bankrupt companies. But politicians who want the votes from the unions will. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted 31 March 10 hours ago, yesterday said: I think we should consider the global impacts of this as well, eg USA or China is not planning the ban on ICE cars, neither is most of the world, its just the UK and EU who are are talking tough at the moment. Toyota will be able to sell ICE cars to Africa, USA etc etc for many years to come, including 2050. FORGET THE BAN! IT'S USELESS! Nobody in their right mind will buy ICE in 2035! 10 hours ago, yesterday said: I also do not believe that the Germans will throw brands like BMW, Audi and VW under the bus, because of national pride and jobs, if these brands come under threat, changes will be made to any agreement that is put in place now. They will have no choice. Under EU laws and WTO they can't help them as required for survival. 10 hours ago, yesterday said: If you read the article above I posted, ICE cars make about 12 % of bad emissions at the moment, Germany will not want to throw that away that industry, for the sake of a high emitter, but is no way the worst. It will push for a measured response. Again? Forget government! This is about making cheaper cars! 10 hours ago, yesterday said: EV production is still very low in comparison to ICE cars currently, Even Tesla, are not ramping up production, while they have cash in the bank to build further production. Tesla, are just building the cars they can sell at a high margin that they think they can sell LOLOL? Not ramping up production??? They are growing 50% per year! In 2024 they will pass BMW and Mercedes in number of cars sold! And they will get close to them even in 2023! 10 hours ago, yesterday said: .I still think price is an issue, maybe cheaper EV's will come, maybe not, anybodies guess, Anybodies guess? WTF? Where is the doubt?? 10 hours ago, yesterday said: but at the moment NO EV's can compete on price with the cheapest ICE car, ie 12,000 euro on the road, with a much better range than an an EV made costing more than 100,000 Euro. If you remove the option of poorer people to get to work it will have a negative effect on the economy in general, this will of course need to be considered by Governments. When you consider all of these things, I think EV's will take longer to become the dominate force that they will become in the end. But as said, this is all speculation, Have you seen the price decline of EVs? They will come cheaper too, it's a matter of time, and will come that cheap before 2030. 0 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
