Electric vehicles in Germany - all the ins-and-outs!

641 posts in this topic

Once again, why not look at the actual numbers before making assumptions about what people can afford?

 

In 2021 only 6.9% of new, private PKW purchases were in the cheapest €13,000 - €18,000 segment:

 

 

Whereas the bulk of private German PKW purchases are in the next 2 categories:

 

KLEINWAGEN            8,9m / 18.5%        €18,000 - €24,000

KOMPAKTKLASSE   11,9m / 24.7%        €25,000 - €35,000

 

There are already indeed a variety of EV in the aforementioned price segments - and as battery technology keeps rapidly improving the way it has in the last 15 years, EVs in the cheapest MINIS class will be in reach in the coming years.

 

There's no magic wand that will make current EVs cheaper because batteries are still quite expensive to source and build. In fact, in 2016 49% of the cost of an EV was the battery. Now it's 32% and by 2030 it could be 19%:

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/797638/battery-share-of-large-electric-vehicle-cost/ 

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39 minutes ago, circuits said:

Once again, why not look at the actual numbers before making assumptions about what people can afford?

 

In 2021 only 6.9% of new, private PKW purchases were in the cheapest €13,000 - €18,000 segment:

 

 

Whereas the bulk of private German PKW purchases are in the next 2 categories:

 

KLEINWAGEN            8,9m / 18.5%        €18,000 - €24,000

KOMPAKTKLASSE   11,9m / 24.7%        €25,000 - €35,000

 

There are already indeed a variety of EV in the aforementioned price segments - and as battery technology keeps rapidly improving the way it has in the last 15 years, EVs in the cheapest MINIS class will be in reach in the coming years.

 

There's no magic wand that will make current EVs cheaper because batteries are still quite expensive to source and build. In fact, in 2016 49% of the cost of an EV was the battery. Now it's 32% and by 2030 it could be 19%:

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/797638/battery-share-of-large-electric-vehicle-cost/ 

 

 

It looks like you are saying that it is OK to screw that 7% of the market because to you that's a small number.   While many of those small cars are bought as second car in a family that already has a bigger one, many of those are bought as well by people with low-ish income.

 

If the industry is not ready to offer a new solution for everyone then they shouldn't ban the ICEs yet.   Find another solution, ban only ICEs with bigger engines, or whatever.    I used to support the ICE ban, but now seeing how things are developing I think it is crap.

 

Even the very low income families, the ones that only can afford a crappy 2000 EUR second hand car will be affected, because you are destroying the second hand market by not introducing new cars fast enough.  Which ironically it is already happening for different reasons.   The second hand market for cars and motorbikes is crap right now, everything is very expensive.

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3 hours ago, Krieg said:

It looks like you are saying that it is OK to screw that 7% of the market because to you that's a small number.   While many of those small cars are bought as second car in a family that already has a bigger one, many of those are bought as well by people with low-ish income.

 

 

Wow, that's not what I'm saying at all.


I'm saying both that 1) 93% of private new car buyers are buying cars in segments where EVs are available and 2) that batteries are getting so much cheaper every year that by the time an ICE ban comes around, EVs could that very well match the MINIS price segment.

 

By 2035, there also might be enough used EVs for sale to possibly satisfy the second-hand market. So far EVs have required less maintenance than ICE vehicles and often age better mechanically. As for battery wear, more major manufacturers are using modular battery packs which means replacing weaker modules doesn't have to be prohibitively expensive.

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17 hours ago, Keleth said:

 

Can you imagine when there are only EVs allowed but many many people cannot afford them what that would do to life as we know it.

What it needs is for one manufacturer to say fuck it instead of making 20% profit on our EVs we´re only going to make 10%.

 

Just one minute, its now 2022 and the ban is 2035 of new ICE cars. If you want to get one of the last ICE cars after 8 years ( to get it cheaper ) then its 21 years from now. Will you be even driving then ??

 

If enough EV's have not been sold to make a second hand market,  and people cannot go to work then I think the Government will just change the law to 2045, rather than have a worse economy  because people cannot get to work.

 

Sure second hand car prices are crazy right now, but thats because of the chip shortage, the pandemic etc, one day in a couple of years these things will go away and the second hand car prices will return to normal. 

 

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12 minutes ago, yesterday said:

Sure second hand car prices are crazy right now, but thats because of the chip shortage, the pandemic etc, one day in a couple of years these things will go away and the second hand car prices will return to normal. 

 

 

I was quoted a surprisingly high trade in value for my 2013 car, so I might agree here. But it would be useful to have some actual overall market figures. What surprised me was the garage owner said the car would be exported from Germany. Guess there is no demand for an old diesel car post dieselgate.

 

Chip shortage which is really a pain now will surely mean less new cars being produced. Therefore maybe less new cars entering the used market, which in turn drives prices higher.

 

Pandemic - Because people now come out of lock down and travel again, and because I would guess hardly anyone bought a new car whilst working from home. Thus the new cars flowing into the second hand market, especially company / fleet cars must have dropped hugely.

 

So these two issues will mean far lower supply to the second hand market, when demand rises. Of course what happens then is the prices rise.

With Germany heading full speed into an energy nightmare, I suspect this time next year, we might be in recession and demand drops dramatically in both the new and second hand market. With petrol/diesel prices likely to remain high, demand for EVs will not fall.

 

As for EV's in the second hand market, sure, once they reach that magic 1, 3, 6 year time period. Incentives for company cars are such that it makes literally zero sense for an employee to accept an ICE car and pay x2 or x4 the monthly tax charge they have to pay in benefit in kind. So I think there will be a huge demand for fleet car purchasers to buy EVs, and then they will flow into the second hand market. Sure it could be years before cheap second hand EVs are available, but we have a good time frame and there is both a carrot and stick to get the market to where it needs to go.

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On 12/07/2022, 23:42:34, Keleth said:

Many of those low-income people need a car to be able to earn their low income.

Lol, I just googled average wage in Germany...

Germany | Average Salary Survey 2022

€73k a year or a typical salary is €63k a year.

Well, that goes to show averages are absolute bollocks. Also with that figure, a lot more low-income people would be buying new cars.

I think this goes to show there are three types of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics.

More accurately, though, it goes to show that statistics are only as good as the source data and that interpreting statistics is something people are able to do badly. If you collect data which people voluntarily enter into a website they stumbled across whilst googling "average wage in Germany", then you don't have a representative sample of the German population. In fact, you have a very shit representation of that population!

I would tend to trust the data from Eurostat, which put the mean annual income in Germany at just under €30k in 2020.

More crucial though, is that the median (much better gauge of "average" when considering income and wealth) is somewhat lower at just under €26k for 2020.

 

Once you subtract the cost of living, there is not much capacity left for the average German to buy a new electric car, at least not outright.

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1 hour ago, toBnruG said:

I think this goes to show there are three types of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics.

More accurately, though, it goes to show that statistics are only as good as the source data and that interpreting statistics is something people are able to do badly. If you collect data which people voluntarily enter into a website they stumbled across whilst googling "average wage in Germany", then you don't have a representative sample of the German population. In fact, you have a very shit representation of that population!

I would tend to trust the data from Eurostat, which put the mean annual income in Germany at just under €30k in 2020.

More crucial though, is that the median (much better gauge of "average" when considering income and wealth) is somewhat lower at just under €26k for 2020.

 

Once you subtract the cost of living, there is not much capacity left for the average German to buy a new electric car, at least not outright.

 Also the https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Labour/Earnings/Earnings-Earnings-Differences/Tables/quaterly-earnings.html;jsessionid=9F5F6788743553486C3A2FA84FBAF972.live722

OR

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Labour/Earnings/Earnings-Earnings-Differences/Tables/liste-average-gross-monthly-earnings.html

 

In summary, 4100 Euros a month, or 49,200 Euros per year in 2021. I'd prefer median too, but these are averaged.

It varies a lot also by federal state and job occupation.

The problem you have with survey's is the number of people who took part and how many of those people contribute to the question you ask from that data set.

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VW boss Herbert Diess exits three years early after turbulent tenure

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jul/22/vw-boss-herbert-diess-exits-three-years-early-after-turbulent-tenure#:~:text=Diess%20will%20leave%20his%20role,%5D%E2%80%9D%2C%20a%20statement%20said.

 

I just think what they guys who sacked Diess think ?, do they want to slow down the EV roll out program from VW ???

 

Sure some aspects of the VW EV's could be improved, but he seems to have done the best of any of the legacy car manufactures to promote EV adoption, where did it all go wrong ? He did try to tell the unions that changes must be made to compete with Tesla etc, but what else did he do wrong ?   

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VW boss Herbert Diess exits three years early after turbulent tenure

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jul/22/vw-boss-herbert-diess-exits-three-years-early-after-turbulent-tenure#:~:text=Diess%20will%20leave%20his%20role,%5D%E2%80%9D%2C%20a%20statement%20said.

 

I just think what they guys who sacked Diess think ?, do they want to slow down the EV roll out program from VW ???

 

Sure some aspects of the VW EV's could be improved, but he seems to have done the best of any of the legacy car manufactures to promote EV adoption, where did it all go wrong ? He did try to tell the unions that changes must be made to compete with Tesla etc, but what else did he do wrong ?   

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On 26/07/2022, 17:39:29, yesterday said:

VW boss Herbert Diess exits three years early after turbulent tenure

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jul/22/vw-boss-herbert-diess-exits-three-years-early-after-turbulent-tenure#:~:text=Diess%20will%20leave%20his%20role,%5D%E2%80%9D%2C%20a%20statement%20said.

 

I just think what they guys who sacked Diess think ?, do they want to slow down the EV roll out program from VW ???

 

Sure some aspects of the VW EV's could be improved, but he seems to have done the best of any of the legacy car manufactures to promote EV adoption, where did it all go wrong ? He did try to tell the unions that changes must be made to compete with Tesla etc, but what else did he do wrong ?   

On 12/07/2022, 20:05:32, Krieg said:

 

Plenty.

 

Seems they did  not like the straight talking bavarian.

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On 7/26/2022, 10:39:29, yesterday said:

He did try to tell the unions that changes must be made to compete with Tesla etc, but what else did he do wrong ?   

 

I had to read this a few times.  Only in DL is telling unions the Truth "wrong".

 

On 7/26/2022, 10:39:29, yesterday said:

just think what they guys who sacked Diess think ?,

 

When you're searching for a messiah, it doesn't take long to validate his miracles.

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On 7/26/2022, 10:39:29, yesterday said:

He did try to tell the unions that changes must be made to compete with Tesla etc, but what else did he do wrong ?   

 

I had to read this a few times.  Only in DL is telling unions the Truth "wrong".

 

On 7/26/2022, 10:39:29, yesterday said:

just think what they guys who sacked Diess think ?,

 

When you're searching for a messiah, it doesn't take long to validate his miracles.

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Speaking of EV's. There are two side by side chargers in the marina. (They are adding some fast chargers.) Last night we wanted to plug in overnight while we went to the wine bar. One place was available, the other one had 4 bicycles parked in it.

How can people be so stupid?

 

To clarify, we didn't stay at the wine bar overnight.

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Speaking of EV's. There are two side by side chargers in the marina. (They are adding some fast chargers.) Last night we wanted to plug in overnight while we went to the wine bar. One place was available, the other one had 4 bicycles parked in it.

How can people be so stupid?

 

To clarify, we didn't stay at the wine bar overnight.

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On 28/07/2022, 19:02:46, fraufruit said:

Speaking of EV's. There are two side by side chargers in the marina. (They are adding some fast chargers.) Last night we wanted to plug in overnight while we went to the wine bar. One place was available, the other one had 4 bicycles parked in it.

How can people be so stupid?

 

To clarify, we didn't stay at the wine bar overnight.

 

As more and more EVs are on the roads, this is becoming more and more of an issue.  Charging stations, just like gas pumps, can be blocked by anyone and anything.  Imagine the hissy fits if EVs blocked all the pumps at a gas station. 

 

My hope is that as EV adoption goes up, people will start seeing that it's an issue.  Unfortunately, it will only be because it suddenly affects them.   

 

IMG_20210417_123846

2 charge points, 1 car

 

IMG_20210916_122304__01

I had to ask the cop (not in the picture) to move his van as he had been blocking 2 charge points.  My car is the blue Model 3. 

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Did a 1400km trip with my FIL Ioniq 5 a few weeks ago, in Portugal.

 

Overall it's a very fine EV, charging is quite fast, very comfortable, but SW is still a pain.

Phone app looks good and lots of functionality.

 

But I kept struggling with basic daily functionality, even after 9 days. Why do I need to turn off the car to start charging, but then I can turn it on during charging?

Also it's extremely buggy. For example, you explicitely need to "turn off" the car before leaving it. But sometimes it refuses to do it! The only way around is to repeat it several times until it does it.

 

The "autopilot" is just very dangerous. It seems OK at start, as it does a very simple auto steering/speed control. What could go wrong? Many things, including self disabling without ANY warning, veering to other lanes, and losing track of the front car speed during curves, because it relies just on a forward facing radar!

Sometimes it's so bad that the auto steer is doing ping-pong between left and right, and then the lane keeper pushes it to the middle! clear case of competing softwares!

 

I noticed that there have been 2 updates since the version I got installed. Maybe it fixes many bugs. But... I need to go to the service store to install them :( :(

 

I still recommend the car, especially if in your country there is a large cost difference for the Tesla. Otherwise, go for the Tesla.

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We've had none of those problems with our Ionic 5. Not sure about turning it off to charge but that is just a push of the button. We get all updates over the air - no need to go to service store.

 

I think your FIL's car is buggy and he should have it checked out. You said he doesn't have Blue Link. That is already a problem.

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