Electric vehicles in Germany - all the ins-and-outs!

641 posts in this topic

On 29.4.2022, 19:35:19, scook17 said:

Funny Brits:

 

Of course the 'easy' solution is (or was) just go buy some sunflower oil or fill up with heating oil and forget all the filtering.

I somehow doubt Germany would be happy with this.

40 years ago a mate of mine had a Audi which was running on bio-diesel. When discount supermarkets had sunflower oil on special he used it as fuel as it was cheaper.

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On 29.4.2022, 19:25:47, yesterday said:

Lets  face it, because there are no cheap EV's around and the prices seem to be going to up at the moment, only a percentage of the population  are going to be able to aford one. Hell who knows, when supply reaches demand then, maybe the prices will fall

Prices will fall as soon as demand lowers and competition increases. Which won't happen soon. Cars are becoming cheaper to manufacture (even with increasing material costs) but manufacturers will exploit high demand.

I think demand will be very high until 2026-2027. But perhaps by 2024-2025 battery costs have lowered significantly, to the point that overall car price starts declining.

As an example, Tesla is running a 32% margin on their cars! Most car manufacturers have 10-15%!

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On 29/04/2022, 16:29:32, fraufruit said:

IMHO, it's a little late to be investing in car charging companies. I could be very wrong.

Surely now would be the time because we should soon see a massive expansion in the number of chargers needed.

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On 29/04/2022, 15:51:43, yesterday said:

This is just bollocks 

 

In 2019, the whole world was buying about 75  million cars etc, so just Europe will have more cars than the whole world makes now, in 2030  ???

The plot shown was forecasting the total number of vehicles on the road, not the yearly sales. They forecast ~84 Million EVs on European roads in 2030, up from ~70 Million in 2029, meaning an increase of ~14 Million in one year (which should represent number of new sales minus number of EVs going out of service).

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9 minutes ago, Keleth said:

Surely now would be the time because we should soon see a massive expansion in the number of chargers needed.

 

Yes, but actually the money is not in the chargers themselves, so I wouldn't put my money in the companies making the chargers, not even in the ones installing them, the money is in the companies running them.  And there are several layers there, like maintaining them, selling the electricity, running the software and running the payments.

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3 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

Prices will fall as soon as demand lowers and competition increases. Which won't happen soon. Cars are becoming cheaper to manufacture (even with increasing material costs) but manufacturers will exploit high demand.

I think demand will be very high until 2026-2027. But perhaps by 2024-2025 battery costs have lowered significantly, to the point that overall car price starts declining.

As an example, Tesla is running a 32% margin on their cars! Most car manufacturers have 10-15%!

 

Generally agree with you, or I hope when supply meets demand and more choice is out there then prices will fall, not sure they can fall to the 7000 Euro new car prices we have in the ICE world, time will tell

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2 hours ago, toBnruG said:

The plot shown was forecasting the total number of vehicles on the road, not the yearly sales. They forecast ~84 Million EVs on European roads in 2030, up from ~70 Million in 2029, meaning an increase of ~14 Million in one year (which should represent number of new sales minus number of EVs going out of service).

Fair point, I agree

 

Still think its going to be hard to get to a total of 84M car on the road in the EU by 2030 and thats about a third of the current car in the EU of about 450 Million

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1 hour ago, yesterday said:

 

Generally agree with you, or I hope when supply meets demand and more choice is out there then prices will fall, not sure they can fall to the 7000 Euro new car prices we have in the ICE world, time will tell

 

There are already EVs that cost 7000 EUR or even less in China, there are some that cost as low as 3000 EUR.   The problem is the European car safety requirements, those EVs won't meet the required safety regulations.   I think the regulations should be changed and create new categories, allowing "city only" cars and "Landstraße" (no Autobahn) cars, with more relaxed safety requirements.    It does not make sense that every car should fulfill safety measures for high speed impacts when you are never going to be there.   It should be something similar to the 50cc moped category that had existed forever, but not as crappy as the current existing "45 kmh cars" (AKA Mopedauto) regulations.    And of course the regulations should not be that poor that allow the mega-crappy cheap Chinese cars, just something reasonable.

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5 hours ago, yesterday said:

Still think its going to be hard to get to a total of 84M car on the road in the EU by 2030 and thats about a third of the current car in the EU of about 450 Million

People will be ditching their ICE cars to the middle east and Africa quickly from 2025 onwards. Don't expect them to be kept for their whole lifetime in EU.

 

Norway already has 17% of its fleet converted to pure EVs. They will reach 30% within 2-3 years, so having 30% of all EU fleet as EV by 2030 is plausible and very likely.

I think you and many people still fail to understand how fast this will shift.

 

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5 hours ago, Krieg said:

 

There are already EVs that cost 7000 EUR or even less in China, there are some that cost as low as 3000 EUR.   The problem is the European car safety requirements, those EVs won't meet the required safety regulations.   I think the regulations should be changed and create new categories, allowing "city only" cars and "Landstraße" (no Autobahn) cars, with more relaxed safety requirements.    It does not make sense that every car should fulfill safety measures for high speed impacts when you are never going to be there.   It should be something similar to the 50cc moped category that had existed forever, but not as crappy as the current existing "45 kmh cars" (AKA Mopedauto) regula
tions.    And of course the regulations should not be that poor that allow the mega-crappy cheap Chinese cars, just something reasonable.

 

A 7000 Euro, ICE car can go 500 or 600 km, without a recharge ie less than 7 mins), sure it does not have the bells and whistles as a car costing 40000 + like a Tesla, we need to to compare apples to apples.

 

With a 7000 Euro car I can go on holiday with it, like with 1000km, not in so much comfort but it can be done, I do not think you can find a 3000 Euro EV, with a range I would accept. I assume they have a crap recharge rate as well.


It all depends what you want the car to do, I do not really have a need for a city car, so, a 3000 Euro EV would, not interest me so much.

 

The EU has some of the highest standards in the world for most things, I would like to know about the standards China workers have to do and how it can effect the safety of China cars before I would like to see them imported, like for example in the Iphone factory, workers are expected to work double the time an EU person is expected to work, I would not like that in the EU either. It keeps the price low to make an EV and then apple can make huge profits.

1 hour ago, MikeMelga said:

People will be ditching their ICE cars to the middle east and Africa quickly from 2025 onwards. Don't expect them to be kept for their whole lifetime in EU.

 

 

By the way I am a supporter of EV cars and keeping the plant clean

 

 

To me, it makes sense, that the middle east and Africa do transition to EV;s as soon as possible, because they have so much solar they can use to charge the EV;s. But these places have large numbers of people living on  10 dollars a day - they will not be able to afford them, sure there will always be some in Africa who can and I would support in buying an EV.

 

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Norway already has 17% of its fleet converted to pure EVs. They will reach 30% within 2-3 years, so having 30% of all EU fleet as EV by 2030 is plausible and very likely.

yes, you are right Norway I think is the leader in converting to EV's, but other countries are way behind that curve.

 

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I think you and many people still fail to understand how fast this will shift.

Still think a 40,000 dollar car, is expensive for most people, Musk will have to get the price to below 20,000, ( better below 15,000)  before a lot of people will get one. Given it takes 2 years or so to build a giga factory, and we are now in 2022, even if Musk says he is to build another EU giga factory its going to be around 24/25 before its up and running. So in EU we will have about 3 million production of Tesla, not sure about other brands. I guess EV's will not dominate in such a short time. By the way in 2020 there were  47,715,97, new cars registered in Germany - just wait it will take a while longer

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12 minutes ago, yesterday said:

Musk will have to get the price to below 20,000, ( better below 15,000)  before a lot of people will get one.

If he wants to.

As MM has already said Tesla makes a big mark up compared to other car companies and seems happy with that. That markup is why it grates to hear Tesla fans raving about Musk doing it for the environment etc. Musk doesn´t do things for the common good (unless the publicity is there) he does things for the money that´s why he´s a multi-billionaire.

The best thing to happen to Tesla was many govts deciding to ban ICE cars after a certain date and now we have other car manufacturers scrabbling around trying to build EVs in an affordable price range, while Tesla stays at the luxury level.

If any company could build an affordable EV at this time it is Tesla but they choose not to because it isn´t going to have a big margin.

 

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21 minutes ago, yesterday said:

Still think a 40,000 dollar car, is expensive for most people

There is no thinking about it. Someone will quote the ridiculously high average price of new cars thinking that means anything in the real world.

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25 minutes ago, yesterday said:

 

Still think a 40,000 dollar car, is expensive for most people, Musk will have to get the price to below 20,000, ( better below 15,000)  before a lot of people will get one. Given it takes 2 years or so to build a giga factory, and we are now in 2022, even if Musk says he is to build another EU giga factory its going to be around 24/25 before its up and running. So in EU we will have about 3 million production of Tesla, not sure about other brands. I guess EV's will not dominate in such a short time. By the way in 2020 there were  47,715,97, new cars registered in Germany - just wait it will take a while longer

I think the "Model 2" cheap car won't arrive before 2024. Tesla will be busy selling Model 3 and Model Y. The Model Y will probably be this year's most sold car in the world. So why bother with Model 2?

I think Tesla can make a Model 2 for 21-25k€ in 2024. And if it takes too long to launch, then there is no need for a Model 2, because Robotaxi will carry less wealthy people...

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9 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

I think the "Model 2" cheap car won't arrive before 2024. Tesla will be busy selling Model 3 and Model Y. The Model Y will probably be this year's most sold car in the world. So why bother with Model 2?

Cannot agree more, when Musk can over sell each Model 3/Y, why make a cheaper car it would just cut profits, however there must be a point where he cannot sell every Model 3 /Y made in the future, at that point he needs to produce the Model 2, still think 25K is alot for some people, when compared to a 7000 Euro ICE car.  I think the time frame will be longer, but hey we are all guessing here.

 

Its difficult to guess, but I guess we need at least one Giga factory in the EU, before Tesla will look at the Model 2 in Europe and as said thats at least 2 or 3 years away, so maybe 27/28

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, yesterday said:

A 7000 Euro, ICE car can go 500 or 600 km, without a recharge ie less than 7 mins)

 

Do you never stop for a break when driving that far? We always have. As I said, Himself just drove our EV over 300 km., put it on a charger for 20 minutes for a full charge, had a sandwich and coffee and used the facilities before carrying on his way. That is what we always did every single time with our ICE so no difference. Except "tanking" was much cheaper.

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1 hour ago, fraufruit said:

 

Do you never stop for a break when driving that far? We always have. As I said, Himself just drove our EV over 300 km., put it on a charger for 20 minutes for a full charge, had a sandwich and coffee and used the facilities before carrying on his way. That is what we always did every single time with our ICE so no difference. Except "tanking" was much cheaper.

 

No almost never. I mostly enjoy driving, so its not work, its a kinda pleasure, and you mostly do not get tired with pleasure. I always stop if I fell tired

 

Last 2 weeks I drove from Munich to the hundsruck, took almost 5 hours with traffic and bau stella, stopped to go to the toilet, and then set off immediately, yeah just eat and drink while traveling on the Autobahn, but only when no repairs on the Autobahn and very light traffic, never been involved in a traffic accident in my life, ecept very minor stuff, which was not my fault.

 

Thats what I do not understand, everyone says this is the best car, but its always for them, we all have different preferences, and I would always stop when I feel tired, but mostly I do not. 

 

In 2019, I drove from Rimini to Munich ( 679 km ), without stopping, ok once to goto the toilet - but no fuel stops because its a desel, and goes forever on a tank

 

I have skin problems, which I need to look after, but not driving problems

 

But I would agree, charging an EV is no way near a problem as it used to be, I would accept a 20 or 30 mins charge to save the environment every day over saved time.

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When will EV be altogether cheaper than ICE for motorists like me happy to drive a cheap and crappy car 3000 km/yr?

No irony intended, I really wonder.

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1 minute ago, Gambatte said:

When will EV be altogether cheaper than ICE for motorists like me happy to drive a cheap and crappy car 3000 km/yr?

No irony intended, I really wonder.

If like me by crappy you mean a car that you would pay €500-€3k for then I´m guessing around 2040-2045 when only EVs have been built for a decade and there are enough 2nd hand cars around to get one for that price.

If there wasn´t this ICE ban after 2035 (?) then I´d guess never.

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9 hours ago, fraufruit said:

 

Do you never stop for a break when driving that far? We always have. As I said, Himself just drove our EV over 300 km., put it on a charger for 20 minutes for a full charge, had a sandwich and coffee and used the facilities before carrying on his way. That is what we always did every single time with our ICE so no difference. Except "tanking" was much cheaper.

There is so much angst made over a car that can only go 300km without charging.

How many people actually regularly drive that distance in one go without any sort of stop.

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34 minutes ago, Gambatte said:

When will EV be altogether cheaper than ICE for motorists like me happy to drive a cheap and crappy car 3000 km/yr?

No irony intended, I really wonder.

2028-2030, my best guess.

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