Electric vehicles in Germany - all the ins-and-outs!

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2 minutes ago, scook17 said:

 

So instead of being dependant on Russia for Oil and Gas, everyone becomes dependant on China for rare earth metals.

Yer but China would never do what Russia has just done ;)

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On 16.4.2022, 11:32:21, yesterday said:

Interesting video on some of the issues limiting the mass production of EV's and why the price is likely going to increase not decrease

 

Here's Why China Now Owns Toyota, Ford, GM, and Tesla - YouTube

It's a bit more complicated. China has lots of it because has no issues on exploring it. Other countries, especially European countries, have serious limitation to new mining activities. Also the battery technology is advancing and also diversifying. Meaning now there are several competitive technologies that use different elements.

Still, what we need is manufacturing in europe! We need many battery factories in Europe, independently on where raw materials come from.

And of course on the long run, Europe needs alternative sources for those materials. Cobalt, lithium and nikel can be obtained in large quantities outside china, for example. And cobalt is a good example: alternative battery designs don't need cobalt any longer.

 

And according to some sources, ICE cars actually use MORE rare materials than EVs. They simply use different materials.

Funny as nobody questioned the laptop and cellphone market for heavy use of rare earth materials, but somehow they made it a no-go for EVs...

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43 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

 

It's a bit more complicated. China has lots of it because has no issues on exploring it. Other countries, especially European countries, have serious limitation to new mining activities. Also the battery technology is advancing and also diversifying. Meaning now there are several competitive technologies that use different elements.

Still, what we need is manufacturing in europe! We need many battery factories in Europe, independently on where raw materials come from.

And of course on the long run, Europe needs alternative sources for those materials. Cobalt, lithium and nikel can be obtained in large quantities outside china, for example. And cobalt is a good example: alternative battery designs don't need cobalt any longer.

 

And according to some sources, ICE cars actually use MORE rare materials than EVs. They simply use different materials.

Funny as nobody questioned the laptop and cellphone market for heavy use of rare earth materials, but somehow they made it a no-go for EVs...

 

yep there are lots of different issues going around

 

  • I guess Laptops/phones use a lot less material than an EV battery, so its more important with them.
  • China can move fast, because people there have no real rights, China can just do it, while in Europe, people get consulted and can drag the process for years, look at the problem Tesla had in Berlin, China does not have those problems they just do it, without any regard to what people think or cause harm.
  • I think its a good idea ( or course ), to move to less pollution, but it has to be done in a way, thats clean, not just moving the pollution, to another poor country that accepts pollution because they get money from use to do it.  
  • Sure I know, when you make things, then pollution is created, as said, I want it done in the cleanest way possible and that cost should be added to an EV or ICE car cost, either way.
  • We should not become too dependent on China or any country, because as we can see, we became too dependant on Russia. This causes us problems now. Unfortunately that means sometimes, we have to pay more for things, which is hard for the poorer people in our society.
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51 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

Funny as nobody questioned the laptop and cellphone market for heavy use of rare earth materials, but somehow they made it a no-go for EVs...

 

Just based on size, likely I can make a thousand cell phones for the same physical material content as an EV.

However, I also think people have no idea cell phones and laptops require the same/similar materials.

 

What a disaster in terms of government planning/lack of regulation. Despite operating mines in the USA, the USA ships the raw materials to china 'because it's cheaper'.

This global supply chain nonsense is what is killing all the production lines today. Cars held up because they miss some key component, produced in some far part of the globe. As Russia now sees, critical parts can easily be switched off. It's a wake up call for the west.

 

 

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2 hours ago, yesterday said:

 

yep there are lots of different issues going around

 

  • I guess Laptops/phones use a lot less material than an EV battery, so its more important with them.

Not so simple. There are other rare elements which are not related with battery. The electronics use quite a lot, and so does the display.

Also, a smartphone lasts on average 2 years, while a car 16. 400M smartphones are made every year, in contrast with 75M cars (of which 2M are EVs). And to finalize, cars actually have better batteries than smartphones, they have much more efficient use of materials due to scale. Smartphones are optimized for weight and volume.

Add all battery powered consumer electronics and you get to similar levels of rare materials usage. Yet... nobody pointed that before.

 

 

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32 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

Not so simple. There are other rare elements which are not related with battery. The electronics use quite a lot, and so does the display.

Also, a smartphone lasts on average 2 years, while a car 16. 400M smartphones are made every year, in contrast with 75M cars (of which 2M are EVs). And to finalize, cars actually have better batteries than smartphones, they have much more efficient use of materials due to scale. Smartphones are optimized for weight and volume.

Add all battery powered consumer electronics and you get to similar levels of rare materials usage. Yet... nobody pointed that before.

 

 

Of course they did!  People have been pointing out the rampant ecological mess the need for new materials for new technologies has produced...lithium lakes, woods being cleared for mining, indian recyclying centers killing kids etc

Those technologies also weren't being sold as a solution to another ecological mess either whereas EV's are being sold on that basis, that they are less polluting and more eco friendly.  Seems only at the point of use is that true.

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2 hours ago, bennetn said:

Of course they did!  People have been pointing out the rampant ecological mess the need for new materials for new technologies has produced...lithium lakes, woods being cleared for mining, indian recyclying centers killing kids etc

Those technologies also weren't being sold as a solution to another ecological mess either whereas EV's are being sold on that basis, that they are less polluting and more eco friendly.  Seems only at the point of use is that true.

Many people seem to think of EVs as a clean replacement for ICE,but it´s only cleaner.

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Cleaner seems like a step in the right direction at least.
I don't think that people adopt well to big changes, so first we need some cars which are a bit like the old ones but a bit worse (range) and yet a bit better (performance and lower emissions). Once the range issue is resolved there will be no need for the old tech cars and if that time comes before ICE cars go out of production then all the better.

Does anybody know the outlook for electricity prices baring in mind electric vehicles don't contribute to road tax? The electricity going into the EVs has the same rate at the electricity going into the television for home-chargers. Sooner or later there will have to be a tax reform.

And another question, any forecasts on the second-hand / third-hand cost of EVs? I wouldn't buy a second-hand EV unless it was under the manufacturer's warranty - technology is too new and most garages have no idea how to fit them if they do go wrong. I can imagine the used prices dropping handsomely, specially as technology improves and today's models become outdated compared to tomorrow's models.

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9 minutes ago, toBnruG said:

 

Does anybody know the outlook for electricity prices baring in mind electric vehicles don't contribute to road tax? The electricity going into the EVs has the same rate at the electricity going into the television for home-chargers. Sooner or later there will have to be a tax reform.

 

 

Why?  The electricity is already taxed around 50% in Germany.

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It just seems a little unfair on the ICE drivers who can't afford an EV but will have to additionally fork out more for electricity as the production is ramped up to handle the additional demand. If petrol taxes become insufficient to maintain the roads then they might start to tap the electricity taxes.

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Came across this today. I think it might be good to invest in EV companies and companies who provide EV Chargin Infrastructure in next few years.

Apart from Tesla, who is the second best, Nio, Xpeng? Any inputs.

 

ev.JPG.d92c0b48807a42773c9c596e7568e9cf.

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12 minutes ago, DanglingPointer said:

Came across this today. I think it might be good to invest in EV companies and companies who provide EV Chargin Infrastructure in next few years.

Apart from Tesla, who is the second best, Nio, Xpeng? Any inputs.

Actually, apart from Tesla, other manufacturers don't do much on their own infrastructure. You have companie like Siemens, ABB and others doing the bulk. But even those use companies like EFACEC (Portuguese) to make the chargers. EFACEC was recently bankrupted by a corrupt business woman from Angola (daughter of the president!) and I do have contacts directly on their charging division, including the top manager. I don't think the big money is on the charging infrastructure companies, I think it's on the operators.

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Thanks, but yeah then how do we find which companies are operating behind. For e.g. below are some of the charging infra stocks which I expect, will grow as the trend for EV is growing. Also, it would be good to diversify other than TSLA as some of the other EV makers are at a price where TSLA was few years ago. So the growth potential would be tremendous.

 

  1. Blink Charging Co (BLNK)

  2. Allego N.V. (ALLG)

  3. Rivian Automotive (RIVN)

  4. Charge Point Holdings (CHPT)  -> Aggressive growth

  5. EVGO stock – Renewable Energy Charging Stations

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4 hours ago, toBnruG said:

Does anybody know the outlook for electricity prices baring in mind electric vehicles don't contribute to road tax

For some reason, people believe this will be an all-time thing. I can´t see a govt having absolutely no road tax when all cars are EVs.It´s a good idea to get people to convert but it won´t stay like it.In 2020 car tax made the govt almost 10bn.

If it does then the govt is going to claw back that 10bn from somewhere else.

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4 hours ago, DanglingPointer said:

Came across this today. I think it might be good to invest in EV companies and companies who provide EV Chargin Infrastructure in next few years.

Apart from Tesla, who is the second best, Nio, Xpeng? Any inputs.

 

ev.JPG.d92c0b48807a42773c9c596e7568e9cf.

 

This is just bollocks 

 

In 2019, the whole world was buying about 75  million cars etc, so just Europe will have more cars than the whole world makes now, in 2030  ???

 

I expect fewer cars on the road, in the future as EV's are currently too expensive for people who buy small 7000 euro petrol cars. 

 

If self driving does come, then alot of Ronbotaxs will take people around the city, or even longer runs.

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Funny Brits:

 

Of course the 'easy' solution is (or was) just go buy some sunflower oil or fill up with heating oil and forget all the filtering.

I somehow doubt Germany would be happy with this.

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7 hours ago, toBnruG said:

If petrol taxes become insufficient to maintain the roads then they might start to tap the electricity taxes.

 

Is there a fire department tax, police department tax, sidewalk repair tax, Chancellor salary tax?  The government's first mission is taxation...they'll find a way to pay for the roads.  Like all taxes, they won't be fair nor popular.

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Personally I think there will be a km tax, so you to pay say 100 Euro for 1000 km you drive

 

I still think its years away though, because EV are only 2.5% of the cars on the road and it take many many years to get that figure up to 20 % of the market

 

Lets  face it, because there are no cheap EV's around and the prices seem to be going to up at the moment, only a percentage of the population  are going to be able to aford one. Hell who knows, when supply reaches demand then, maybe the prices will fall

 

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