Electric vehicles in Germany - all the ins-and-outs!

668 posts in this topic

11 minutes ago, Dembo said:

"The poor" don't buy new cars. The more interesting question is what happens in the second hand market. Will I be able to buy a 5-year old Tesla in a couple of years for €10K? Then suddenly EVs become a much more realistic option. More likely I would think is that 5-year old Teslas will have retained 75% of their value and the petrol or diesel car you buy today will have plumetted. 

 

My prediction is that the Teslas will continue keeping their unreasonable price in the second hand market for a few more years, maybe three to five years.  Then people will have to face reality, more cars will need battery replacement, real LONG TERM cost of ownership will be clear, and prices will finally go down to something more realistic.  By then probably there will be garages offering non-Tesla battery replacements for Teslas, providing a cheaper (probably lower quality) alternative for keeping the cars running.  But nope, I don't think you can buy a second hand Tesla 3 for 10k in 5 years, no way.

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17 hours ago, scook17 said:

 

There are loads of cheaper ones out there according to this thing scook posted. 

Not cheap cheap, granted, but once this lot come second hand, then for people who just want a nippy thing to get around town in, there will be surely be something. 

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If you put back and invest all of the savings from using an EV instead of Diesel, come replacement battery time the money will be there. That's how I see it. 

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It is still kind of too early to know what will make sense by then.   Replacing a Tesla 3 battery cost around 16k - 18k.   By then you will have to decide if that really makes sense or not according to prices of used cars and the condition of your car.  I expect that EVs will have better longevity and that it will make sense to change the batteries, specially if alternatives are possible.   Early information says that fixing a Tesla battery with problems by replacing just the faulty cells might not be a long term solution because the  "advanced" software from Tesla will realize it and won't like it.  So the whole issue will have to have a run over the "Right to Repair" drama before non official solutions can be implemented, or until hackers find the way to do it if Tesla do not play ball.

 

And if you think about environment, repairing the batteries will make more sense than replacing the whole thing.   Maybe when you replace the whole battery Tesla will make you give them the old one so they can refurbish it or repurpose it so they can eat the cake and have the cake.

 

I assume things will start moving soon when more and more cars need battery replacements.

 

Worst case scenario we land in the Toyota Prius hell, when for many years it didn't make sense to replace the batteries and plenty of cars were wasted which was a shame because it was a extremely reliable car that could give much more if a financially viable solution existed.  But nowadays there are cheaper alternatives, or at least those cheap alternatives exist in the USA, no idea here.   But I don't think this will happen because the market is very big.    However the scenario in the UK does not look promising for the early Nissan Leaf.

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My Peugeot 307 sw costed like 5400eur 3yr ago purchase, plus 78eur/month (12m running average to 2022.03) everything included. Of course the obvious: is a modest car, and I drive very little.

I don't argue either in favor nor against this or that car range. And of course cost is only one aspect. Just EV numbers don't match my idea of cheap.

Super interesting to look at what's going to happen to EV in the next years. Climate change, economy, politics, and geopolitics will all play.

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5 minutes ago, Krieg said:

Replacing a Tesla 3 battery cost around 16k - 18k.

How often is this needed?

 

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2 hours ago, Gambatte said:

How often is this needed?

 

 

To be fair, Tesla batteries are much better and their battery care management is superior.  Elon Musk claimed something ridiculous like 1 million miles lifespan, but nowadays they say something around 300k to 400k miles, which would be extremely good if that was the reality.   However they only give warranties from 100k to 150k miles, which is probably the realistic thing you should consider, maybe a bit over that  Still pretty good.   And I expect the problems with Tesla batteries won't be that much about early degradation, but just random problems with defectives cells.

 

But for other brands is different, and some are very far from that.   Specially the first generations of EVs.  That's why in the UK you can find plenty of Nissan Leaf for 5k, because their battery is already in very bad status and their range is very low (i.e. 50km or less) and people do not want to pay the 10k or 12k for the battery replacement because they think it is not worth.   

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Yes, if there is one argument against EV this is the one. The technology is still rapidly improving, so if you buy today rather than tomorrow you are buying something that will soon be superseeded.

 

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fwiw the VW/Audi/Cupra MEB platform uses battery modules that can be replaced if they're failing or if their capacity is too low.

 

Each module costs about 1400 Euro - or 2k including replacement costs (less of course when more are replaced at once).

 

https://preview.redd.it/f9qactrrat851.jpg?auto=webp&s=de67c9cc928a5e57ff846ac49a04f0210ed30d14

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2 hours ago, kiplette said:

 

There are loads of cheaper ones out there according to this thing scook posted. 

Not cheap cheap, granted, but once this lot come second hand, then for people who just want a nippy thing to get around town in, there will be surely be something. 

 

Those prices don't include the current €9570 rebate. However considering the current wait times, ordering an EV now means at least getting the €3570 Umweltbonus.

 

Otherwise a potential EV buyer will just have to wait and see if the Innovationsprämie is extended until the end of next year.

 

(Once again, for a non-hybrid EV with a base price under €40k registered before January 1st 2023, you receive €6000 for the Innovationsprämie after you apply for it. Otherwise an EV with a base price in the range of €40k to 65k will get you €5000.)

 

1 hour ago, Gambatte said:

Yes, if there is one argument against EV this is the one. The technology is still rapidly improving, so if you buy today rather than tomorrow you are buying something that will soon be superseeded.

 

 

Current EV's will be superseded by future ones but considering the current price hikes due to shortages, increased demand and rising materials costs - which are over and above current inflation - buying now isn't such a bad idea. Many dealers only charge you upon delivery.
 

Quote

 

My Peugeot 307 sw costed like 5400eur 3yr ago purchase, plus 78eur/month (12m running average to 2022.03) everything included. Of course the obvious: is a modest car, and I drive very little.

 

 

Used car prices have skyrocketed in the last couple of years and right now there are 1/3 fewer used cars for sale compared to 1 year ago.

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4 hours ago, yesterday said:

 

wiper blades replacement  costs 19.95 Euro  with free shipping from ev-doc.de 

 

cabin filter replacement costs €29.99 with shipping from https://www.amazon.de/-/en/BASENOR-Tesla-Model-Filter-Replacement/dp/B08KSQD4NK

 

I assume the Brake fluid check costs nothing if you do not need to replace the Brake fluid, which I guess would cost extra with Tesla service.

 

50 Euro for both, sounds a bit less than the 120 Euro from Tesla, but your choice of course

25€ for wipers and 38€ for filter. Plus 10€ for brake fluid tester. That's 73€.

Sure 73€ is less than 120€. But they will do more free maintenance items and you are assuming my time is worth zero, which is not true.

If you look at the invoices I got from Mercedes... never below 350€!!

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1 hour ago, circuits said:

fwiw the VW/Audi/Cupra MEB platform uses battery modules that can be replaced if they're failing or if their capacity is too low.

 

Each module costs about 1400 Euro - or 2k including replacement costs (less of course when more are replaced at once).

 

https://preview.redd.it/f9qactrrat851.jpg?auto=webp&s=de67c9cc928a5e57ff846ac49a04f0210ed30d14

Interesting as VW goes with the same bullshit as the BMW i3, super narrow tiers which are shit in winter condition.

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2 hours ago, Krieg said:

To be fair, Tesla batteries are much better and their battery care management is superior.  Elon Musk claimed something ridiculous like 1 million miles lifespan, but nowadays they say something around 300k to 400k miles, which would be extremely good if that was the reality.   However they only give warranties from 100k to 150k miles, which is probably the realistic thing you should consider, maybe a bit over that  Still pretty good. 

Yeah, even recently JBStraubel, previous VP @Tesla and now CEO of a battery recycling company, said he expects Tesla Model 3 batteries to last 300-400k miles, which is much more than the typical duration of a car. And be aware, this means at least 70% of charge, so most likely the car will keep driving, just less range.

There are some Model S, with old batteries, with well over 1 million kilometers, and the batteries last around 300-400k. And the new batteries should last even longer.

 

I think the 1 million quote is for the new 4680 batteries.

 

2 hours ago, Krieg said:

 And I expect the problems with Tesla batteries won't be that much about early degradation, but just random problems with defectives cells.

Agree. Tesla battery management disables these thousands of individual cells as they stop working properly, so no need to replace entire modules except in extreme conditions.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

Interesting as VW goes with the same bullshit as the BMW i3, super narrow tiers which are shit in winter condition.

 

Huh? You can get the ID.3 or Cupra Born with 235/40 if you want when ordering. Same width as some of the standard Tesla options.

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2 hours ago, Krieg said:

And if you think about environment, repairing the batteries will make more sense than replacing the whole thing.   Maybe when you replace the whole battery Tesla will make you give them the old one so they can refurbish it or repurpose it so they can eat the cake and have the cake.

My personal opinion is they will pay you to move your battery for energy storage, and then you pay for a new battery. Your old battery will probably work for 20 more years for energy storage.

In other cases, like irrepairable damage, they will recycle, which according to JBStrauble, could reuse 95% of the materials.

 

For the Model 3, I think most drivers won't change battery in the first 15-20 years. There isn't enough data yet, but reported data by thousands of users seems to indicate 20% degradation after 10-15 years or so, which is quite good.

 

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13 minutes ago, circuits said:

 

Huh? You can get the ID.3 or Cupra Born with 235/40 if you want when ordering. Same width as some of the standard Tesla options.

Your chart says otherwise ("Large, narrow wheels"), I was just surprised, I didn't check the tires.

EDIT: it's 215 for the id3. Ok, it's much better than the 175 from the BMW i3.

EDIT 2: I only see 215 for the Cupra...

EDIT3: ok, I found that option, but it's not the default and by far the most expensive

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On 03/04/2022, 00:12:46, CincyInDE said:

 

There always has to be a "charging box" of some sort. It can be permanently mounted to the wall or it can be a mobile connector (like a Juice Booster).

 

Watch this informative video on the topic.

 

https://youtu.be/RMxB7zA-e4Y

 

 

A glorified light switch for a thousand plus Euros...

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26 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

Your chart says otherwise ("Large, narrow wheels"), I was just surprised, I didn't check the tires.

EDIT: it's 215 for the id3. Ok, it's much better than the 175 from the BMW i3.

EDIT 2: I only see 215 for the Cupra...

EDIT3: ok, I found that option, but it's not the default and by far the most expensive

 

So choose the rims you like and swap out the standard tires with wider ones when you get the car and sell the ones that came with it. What's the big deal? Most dealer can even do that when they receive the car.

 

Besides, there's often a delay between the car arriving at the dealer and the paperwork being completed.

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6 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

Yeah... as I've been saying the future is not public charging stations, it's company charging.

Because companies are going to give free charging forever,same as the govt will charge no road tax for EVs ever.

6 hours ago, yesterday said:

Sure but you are comparing apples and oranges 

Yep but some of us can only afford apples and oranges are way out of our price range.

 

6 hours ago, yesterday said:

A 5 to 10K, car is not the same as a Tesla, in features and new ness - to compare you have to pick an ICE in the same price as a Tesla, then compare the features and running costs. comfort etc. Its not all about the price !!!

It is all about the price for some people.

I cannot afford an EV even the cheapest one you can find me.If I had to buy a car right at this moment I could probably pony up about 2-3k.

MMs favourite is TCO.TCO does not apply to many people because they cannot afford the up front cost even though over however many years you have the car it works out cheaper to buy a EV.

I would love to have an EV but there is absolutely no way I can afford one and I believe until the 2nd hand EV market comes way down then EVs will struggle to become dominant.

6 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

Not again this argument... the average new car price in Germany is 34k, not 5-10k!

If I go down the pub with 4 mates and I´m the designated driver and that night 10 litres of beer is drunk then on average we have drunk 2L each even though I haven´t drunk a drop.

That´s how worthwhile averages are.

 

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1 hour ago, scook17 said:

A glorified light switch for a thousand plus Euros...

 

As it says in the video, yes, that sums it up.  We bought one that is relatively feature-rich for 600€.  Robbery?  Perhaps.

Ours has an off switch (metal key required), and it will listen to a load balancer if the apartment building ever needs one.  But by that time, who knows? 

 

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