CO2 pricing

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"With the CO2 tax, fossil fuels become more expensive. From 2021, there will be a new incentive for climate-friendly management in the areas of heating and transport. The additional income will be used to relieve households and companies through lower electricity prices. Long-distance commuters also receive compensation during a transitional period. At the start of 2021 , a CO 2 price of 25 euros per ton applies . Corresponding:

 

7 cents per litre of gasoline
8 cents per litre of diesel
8 cents per litre of heating oil
0.5 cents per kilowatt hour of natural gas
The CO 2 price will rise to 55 euros by 2025 ."

 

Apparently, average prices from 2020 were:

 

"District heating: 9.2 cents / kWh
Natural gas: 6.0 cents / kWh
Heating oil: 4.6 cents / kWh
Wood pellets: 4.8 cents / kWh
Firewood: 3.1 cents / kWh
Electricity (for heat pump): 22.8 cents / kWh "

 

Personally, I would disagree with these figures, as electricity is more like 30c, and gas around 4.5c as of end of 2020, before these changes.

 

So to fill my my diesel car, some 50 litres, as of 2021, it became 4 Euros more expensive. This will have more than doubled to 8+ Euros by 2025.

A 20,000 KWh gas consumption of a typical house costs an additional 100 Euros or so, again more than doubling by 2025.

Apparently the 'benefits' of this 'incentive' will be to reduce the cost of electricity, just over half of which is made up by government taxes, levies and fees.

 

So my question is how will people actually respond?

 

Will I run out tomorrow and swap my diesel for a brand new electric car? Spend 30K or more on a new car? Maybe fuel is really a big component of the cost AND I happen to have 30K plus AND I feel like spending that on a new car when my existing one works perfectly fine.

 

Will I replace my existing gas boiler with a heat pump? Well, not at 22.8c / kwh, that's for sure. With generating your own energy with solar, it's about even if you can divert surplus energy. Heating water or space heating with electricity is just stupidly expensive otherwise. So best case people use wood or retrofit modern houses with a wood stove as I see so many people use here in the countryside. But at +100 Euros a year, are people honestly going to do anything?

 

I think this whole carbon tax thing misses the point. Ban the sale of combustion engines at a set date. Ban the installation of heating systems which produce CO2 in new developments. Require new developments to fit solar panels and heat pumps, sized for the actual usage. The solution lies not through punishing people who already own something, but in ensuring you remove from the market the ability to buy something 'bad'. It's largely what the EU has done with the energy directives. You can no longer buy a G rates fridge, as now everyone gets at least a A or A+++ appliance by default, because they banned the G rates fridges years ago. Yes, some little old lady still has her G rated fridge from 1970, but sooner or later it will break and she'll get a new one.

 

I honestly don't see how Germany will ever achieve zero carbon emissions. My neighbours are mostly pensioners and they certainly will not spent several thousand euros on a new heating system. Punishing consumption in this way will just make them turn off the heating and freeze in winter time. This is not a good solution to the problem.

 

 

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Whilst I generally agree with much of what you have said, I do strongly believe that diesel cars at least should have been banned years ago. Diesels are smelly, dirty and polluting, they always have been regardless of the manufactures hoodwinking the EU in to believing otherwise! At the very least they should be banned from inner cities and phased out as early as possible. As you point out the increase in carbon tax will not force you to replace your diesel car with an electric one in the near future and that is exactly why something far more radical needs to happen before it is  too late!

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Germany might achieve carbon zero, but only at great reluctance.

And then every other country will say, look, no one is doing it, why should we?

But if you live in Munich, you should be looking forward to Fernwärme. Half the construction on the streets in our part of town is putting in the big blue pipes.

https://www.swm.de/geschaeftskunden/fernwaerme

 

Gas prices are going to be higher this winter (Putin is mad at us) and that might encourage some change.

Carrot and stick works best (punish bad behaviour, reward good). They should be moving some of the energy taxes to encourage those of limited means getting new gear.

Prices have a great way of making people change their behaviour.

 

 

   
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On 1.10.2021, 18:53:58, scook17 said:

Ban the sale of combustion engines at a set date

I disagree. Why would you ban combustion engines running on renewable fuel? Already 40 years ago a mate of mine had an Audi which burnt salad oil he bought from Norma because it was cheaper than what he could buy at petrol stations.

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LOL. Let me tell you about all the crimes my friends and I commit. Try them out yourself!

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On 5.10.2021, 10:52:10, jeba said:

I disagree. Why would you ban combustion engines running on renewable fuel? Already 40 years ago a mate of mine had an Audi which burnt salad oil he bought from Norma because it was cheaper than what he could buy at petrol stations.

Yup, that is why it was years ago, they simply did not know better, but they gave it a good shot.  Apart from the discussion on the moral standing, burning foodstuffs for cars, for instance. Widescale use of vegetable oil was not found to be scalable, also veggie oils don´t burn too well in cars and need devices to heat the fuel before injecting it into the cylinders, then you would have to treat it with additives to make it into "winterdiesel" to stop it from flocking in your tank. It was concluded that worked, but not well enough to replace mineral oil diesel, also you would have to convert your car back.

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On 10/1/2021, 7:35:46, keith2011 said:

Whilst I generally agree with much of what you have said, I do strongly believe that diesel cars at least should have been banned years ago. Diesels are smelly, dirty and polluting, they always have been regardless of the manufactures hoodwinking the EU in to believing otherwise! At the very least they should be banned from inner cities and phased out as early as possible. As you point out the increase in carbon tax will not force you to replace your diesel car with an electric one in the near future and that is exactly why something far more radical needs to happen before it is  too late!

Not just diesels, two stroke scooters are probably more carcinogenic and won't have all the sophistcated emission controls a car has.

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2 hours ago, French bean said:

Not just diesels, two stroke scooters are probably more carcinogenic and won't have all the sophistcated emission controls a car has.

You maybe right but it is a question of scale both the number of 2 stroke scooters compared to diesel vehicles plus the engine size means they are most likely insignificant and could be tackled later. Get rid of the diesels first!

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On 10/1/2021, 8:35:46, keith2011 said:

Whilst I generally agree with much of what you have said, I do strongly believe that diesel cars at least should have been banned years ago. Diesels are smelly, dirty and polluting, they always have been regardless of the manufactures hoodwinking the EU in to believing otherwise! At the very least they should be banned from inner cities and phased out as early as possible. As you point out the increase in carbon tax will not force you to replace your diesel car with an electric one in the near future and that is exactly why something far more radical needs to happen before it is  too late!

Most diesels are trucks which replaced railway as the main cargo transportation mode. While Switzerland is building underground railway tunnels through the Alps to stop transiting trucks from polluting its land, German government did everything to replace railway with the wall of trucks on every autobahn.

 

Private car diesels are also not environmentally friendly, yet they are much lesser problem.

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probably 20 years ago TNT I think it was carried out a trial of battery powered LGV's for city use, I don't know how it went but the fact there aren't any of these vehicles suggests it wasn't a great success. At about the same time, an aggregates company in London started shifting stuff by using the Grand Union canal, they reckoned it saved a lot of money with not having tippers going in and out of London.

 

I also remember in the early 90's a company that developed a trailer that could run on the rails and then hitched directly onto a tractor unit at a terminal and Tesco has a rail terminal in Daventry and are also using the Liverpool - Manchester canal to save on vehicle journeys. The biggest issue is to get goods into town and city centres and be economically viable, trains and canals will only deliver to a terminal and then trucks are still needed for the final part of a journey.

 

Where there's a will, there's a way.

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Combustion is the problem. Cars should be severely limited in dense urban areas (yes, it will cause pain, but why do we give up 20% of our cities to cars?) If london can do it, why not civilized nations?

 

But 2 stroke pollution is off the charts. Bangkok banned 2 stroke motorcycles years ago as they stink. They only burn a fraction of the fuel passing through.

 

2 stroke engines should have been banned decades ago:

 

This particular environmental catastrophe is not news. A 2011 study by Edmunds found that a two-stroke gasoline-powered leaf blower spewed out more pollution than a 6,200-pound Ford F-150 SVT Raptor pickup truck. Jason Kavanagh, the engineering editor at Edmunds at the time, noted that “hydrocarbon emissions from a half-hour of yard work with the two-stroke leaf blower are about the same as a 3,900-mile drive from Texas to Alaska in a Raptor.”

The two-stroke engine found in most consumer gas-powered leaf blowers is an outmoded technology. Unlike larger, heavier engines, a two-stroke engine combines oil and gas in a single chamber, which gives the machine more power while remaining light enough to carry. That design also means that it is very loud, and that as much as a third of the fuel is spewed into the air as unburned aerosol.

How loud? “Some produce more than 100 decibels of low-frequency, wall-penetrating sound — or as much noise as a plane taking off — at levels that can cause tinnitus and hearing loss with long exposure,” Monica Cardoza wrote for Audubon Magazine this year.

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1 hour ago, mako1 said:

Combustion is the problem.

No. Fosil fuels are the problem. However, you can have combustion engines run on renewable fuels.

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1 hour ago, mako1 said:

Bangkok banned 2 stroke motorcycles years ago as they stink. They only burn a fraction of the fuel passing through.

 

Only problem in Bangkok is that, for every car, 1,000 2 strokes pass through.

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Some years ago i wondered if cars could capture their emissions and dump them back in the fuel station for processing.

It seems it's technically possible, but the weight and volume of the vehicle would increase substantially. Also fuel efficiency would drop a lot.

It might work on trucks, but not on cars.

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On 10/1/2021, 5:53:58, scook17 said:

Electricity (for heat pump): 22.8 cents / kWh "

Is the cost of electricity, if you use it for heat pumps, different than if you use the same kWh for something else?

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No. Fosil fuels are the problem. However, you can have combustion engines run on renewable fuels

Unless the rules of thermodynamics changed since my uni days, burning things, as in combustion, causes green house gasses, among others. Green fuels are a step in the right direction, less overall footprint,  but heating oxygen and hydrocarbons will produce climate damaging emissions.

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On 31/10/2021, 13:37:00, mako1 said:

Unless the rules of thermodynamics changed since my uni days, burning things, as in combustion, causes green house gasses, among others. Green fuels are a step in the right direction, less overall footprint,  but heating oxygen and hydrocarbons will produce climate damaging emissions.

 

Whilst this is true, digging up stuff (coal, oil, gas, ...) which was soaked up carbon millions of years ago and burning it releases CO2 stored from eons ago.

In comparison growing stuff and making fuel from it, it claimed, soaks up carbon during the growing phase and releases that same carbon during the burning phase.

Given we have alternatives which don't involve burning stuff, neither if great, but the former is far worse.

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On 04/10/2021, 19:14:38, mako1 said:

But if you live in Munich, you should be looking forward to Fernwärme. Half the construction on the streets in our part of town is putting in the big blue pipes.

 

We have started getting that in our town, but my old neighbour said that he had been quoted 10 thousand Euros to join the pipeline as a one off cost and then it would cost on average 400 euros more a year than his current set up.

 

Bizarre. Honestly I thought Fernwärme was usually waste heat from a factory doing something completely different producing heat as a by-product and giving it away for free, not the local powerstation pumping it out at those kinds of costs. Who the heck will want to join the club?

 

I suppose if your heating dies and you are about to replace it anyway then it may end up useful in your specific circumstances...

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5 hours ago, kiplette said:

We have started getting that in our town, but my old neighbour said that he had been quoted 10 thousand Euros to join the pipeline

That´s cheap. Can he refuse to join anyway? Often, the direct cost is only part of the problem. A bigger concern may be that the work takes months during which the walkway is dug up and no customers will be able to or want to enter the shops in your building. I know of a case in which that led to bankruptcy / job losses.

 

5 hours ago, kiplette said:

I thought Fernwärme was usually waste heat from a factory doing something completely different producing heat as a by-product

That´s not enough to heat a whole town. They have specially designated "Heizkraftwerke" for that which produce electrify and heat (burning fossil fuels).

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