BREXIT positives and negatives

[Metall 14,513]

5 hours ago, fraufruit said:

You know what happens when you mention his name 3 times, don't you?

 

We don't discuss sockpuppets on TT

 

[john_b 3,298]

This Guardian survey may be of interest

 

Brits living in the EU: what is life on the continent like post-Brexit?
We would like to hear from Brits living across the EU about life on the continent post-Brexit

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jan/11/brits-living-in-the-eu-what-is-life-on-the-continent-like-post-brexit

 

 

[murphaph 9,642]

Remember when the British right ring press cheered on Brexit? Yeah, they're not doing that anymore:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/01/16/britain-going-rejoin-eu-farsooner-anyone-now-imagines/

[fraufruit 41,938]

Paywall to read whole article. 

 

I'll still ask, what makes Britain think that the EU wants them back?

[pappnase 2,571]

Exactly Fruity, and what makes them think that they could come back on any terms that the UK voters would accept. I can't see them being allowed back without adopting the Euro, and joining Schengen. 

[murphaph 9,642]

If you press ctrl+u you can view the whole article, though without any formatting :-)

 

The UK will return to the EU some day. It will take decades but the stuff that has done most harm can be fairly quickly reversed should a sensible UK government come to power and the EU would not object. The UK could rejoin the single market and customs union. They would have zero say over the rules and would have to make financial contributions much like being a member state, but without any say in how those contributions are spent. Being in the single market would mean accepting freedom of movement of course, but as Brits have learned, they lost more than the Europeans when it was abolished in the UK. The EU will not however let the UK actually rejoin any time soon and almost certainly will want to see the circus of FPTP abolished and replaced with a decent form of PR before there's any realistic chance of readmission. The EU does not need or want the UK having another meltdown and repeating all this nonsense again and FPTP enables this sort of thing. Under PR it's far less likely. The UK would indeed be obliged to join Schengen as a full EU member and this would not be avoidable, whereas in practice the Euro is. I would love to see the UK back in and in Schengen so Ireland could join but we are decades away from the UK being a full member state again IMO.

[john g. 37,685]

4 minutes ago, murphaph said:

If you press ctrl+u you can view the whole article, though without any formatting :-)

 

The UK will return to the EU some day. It will take decades but the stuff that has done most harm can be fairly quickly reversed should a sensible UK government come to power and the EU would not object. The UK could rejoin the single market and customs union. They would have zero say over the rules and would have to make financial contributions much like being a member state, but without any say in how those contributions are spent. Being in the single market would mean accepting freedom of movement of course, but as Brits have learned, they lost more than the Europeans when it was abolished in the UK. The EU will not however let the UK actually rejoin any time soon and almost certainly will want to see the circus of FPTP abolished and replaced with a decent form of PR before there's any realistic chance of readmission. The EU does not need or want the UK having another meltdown and repeating all this nonsense again and FPTP enables this sort of thing. Under PR it's far less likely. The UK would indeed be obliged to join Schengen as a full EU member and this would not be avoidable, whereas in practice the Euro is. I would love to see the UK back in and in Schengen so Ireland could join but we are decades away from the UK being a full member state again IMO.

What exactly stops Ireland from joining up with Schengen? Would it contravene the commln travel agreement between Ireland the UK?

[PandaMunich 16,568]

1 hour ago, fraufruit said:

Paywall to read whole article. 

Here you go: https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraph.co.uk%2Fnews%2F2023%2F01%2F16%2Fbritain-going-rejoin-eu-farsooner-anyone-now-imagines%2F

[murphaph 9,642]

The Irish border would have to be fortified by Ireland and every border crossing (of the 2 or 3 hundred) either permanently closed or manned with passport controls as an external Schengen frontier. This is obviously a complete non-starter politically. Ireland will remain outside Schengen as long as Ireland is partitioned or (something I consider more likely these days) the UK rejoins the EU and with it, Schengen. 

[fraufruit 41,938]

Thanks, Panda!

 

Quote

This may not mean that voters have any appetite for rejoining yet. 

 

Again, as if they could just decide it and make it so.

[murphaph 9,642]

When the day comes that the UK wants to rejoin they will get quite a shock when they realise they need to ask nicely.

[Dembo 493]

2 hours ago, fraufruit said:

I'll still ask, what makes Britain think that the EU wants them back?

 

The UK is a major economy in Europe, would qualify in every other way and as a former member it'd be an easier process as the UK is still mostly aligned with EU laws. If you ignore spite as a reason why wouldn't the EU want the UK back? Would seem like an ideal member. They'd surely also welcome Switzerland and Norway even though their populations have also voted against membership.

 

I can't see it happening, at least not in my lifetime. And not because the UK would want in and the EU would say no, but because there isn't and won't be the political will in the UK to go through the whole psychodrama again. Much more likely is the trade deal will become trade deal+, and then trade deal+++, and then before you know it it's indistinguishable from SM membership without any big fuss and spread out over long enough that the grumbling doesn't get too loud.  

[john_b 3,298]

2 hours ago, murphaph said:

 

[murphaph 9,642]

BritishVolt has collapsed (the writing has been in the wall for months. I believe I posted about their difficulties here before). That leaves just the one Chinese owned EV battery plant in the UK. This is nowhere near enough battery manufacturing capacity to keep car making viable.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-64303149

 

If Brexit hadn't happened, the batteries could come from the EU as well as UK and it would make no difference.

[Keleth 9,279]

1 hour ago, Dembo said:

 

The UK is a major economy in Europe, would qualify in every other way and as a former member it'd be an easier process as the UK is still mostly aligned with EU laws. If you ignore spite as a reason why wouldn't the EU want the UK back? Would seem like an ideal member. They'd surely also welcome Switzerland and Norway even though their populations have also voted against membership.

 

 

I think this is the 3rd or 4th example of this sort of thought that I´ve replied to and I´ll say the same again to this one...

Why do you think the EU would welcome the UK back without stringent terms such as Euro etc etc?

 

[Keleth 9,279]

39 minutes ago, murphaph said:

BritishVolt has collapsed (the writing has been in the wall for months. I believe I posted about their difficulties here before). That leaves just the one Chinese owned EV battery plant in the UK. This is nowhere near enough battery manufacturing capacity to keep car making viable.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-64303149

 

If Brexit hadn't happened, the batteries could come from the EU as well as UK and it would make no difference.

Your thinking confuses me on this.

Surely the idea of this company was to build a company that could supply batteries to the UK and the world market, whereas you seem to reason we should have just got the batteries from the EU.

The difference that it would make is that it could have been a thriving industry in the UK providing jobs etc etc.

[murphaph 9,642]

You misunderstand, I think. The existing UK car industry can still operate in the single market because wheel bearings, tyres and even more expensive bits like engines still don't make up the majority of the value of a vehicle, so car manufacturers in the UK can import those things and still sell their cars in the EU tariff free. HOWEVER this is not the case for batteries in EVs because they cost so much relative to the end product, they end up being over half the value of the finished vehicle and if the battery is not made in the UK, the finished vehicle is not considered to be either and attracts tariffs when sold in the EU. That's why it is critical for the future of the UK car industry for there to be locally produced batteries.

 

If Brexit had not happened, UK car manufacturers could have a) simply bought batteries from one of the EU plants or b ) made these batteries in the UK but critically they could have also been sold in the other direction to EU car makers, even for use in cars that would end up being sold in the UK, because it was all one market. These are the rules of origin that have caught so many industries out since Brexit. The TCA only offers zero tariffs on goods made in the UK. A UK assembled EV with a battery from outside the UK fails this test.

[keith2011 2,572]

3 hours ago, murphaph said:

When the day comes that the UK wants to rejoin they will get quite a shock when they realise they need to ask nicely.

 

They always have done or have you forgotten General De Gaulle  and "Non" or if you are too young check out the history!

[keith2011 2,572]

4 hours ago, john g. said:

What exactly stops Ireland from joining up with Schengen? Would it contravene the commln travel agreement between Ireland the UK?

 

If that happened how long do you think it would take those people trying to get to the UK in small boats from France to figure out they could take a ferry to Dublin and catch another to a destination in the UK all without showing a passport or having to go through immigration, probably cheaper than paying the smugglers too! Imagine what the Daily Mail and Express, despite their very recent anti-brexit tone would say about that!

[Dembo 493]

7 hours ago, Keleth said:

I think this is the 3rd or 4th example of this sort of thought that I´ve replied to and I´ll say the same again to this one...

Why do you think the EU would welcome the UK back without stringent terms such as Euro etc etc?

 

Probably at least one from me as it seems this discussion has been going round in circles for ages.

 

I answered that. The question should be: why do you think the EU wouldn't be pragmatic and why do you think no negotiation would be possible? Sweden has so far avoided joining the Euro for 28 years along with 6 other EU countries that haven't joined the Euro; pretty ridiculous to suggest that if the UK wanted to rejoin (won't happen) that joining the Euro would be an absolute, unavoidable and non-negotiable condition.