BREXIT positives and negatives

1,959 posts in this topic

11 hours ago, murphaph said:

Yes they are not all fools in the Tory party but I still think there are so split on this that there is absolutely no chance they will even seriously start talks on it!

It will be up to Labour to get the ball rolling after the next general election but I fear by then the economic situation in the UK will be seriously awful, the "latest" budget is bad enough but in an effort to keep some voters on their side most of the worst tax increases and spending cuts have been kicked down the road till 2025 or 2028!

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The Tory party is particularly good at one thing... staying in power. I said a few weeks back that I would not be surprised if it was the Tories that started the reversal of Brexit to catch Labour on the hop. We're not quite there yet but George Eustice's denunciation of the trade deal with Australia that he was involved in as a cabinet minister for agriculture, quickly followed by Hunt's suggestion that closer alignment with the EU would spur growth, leads me to believe that Sunak has abandoned hard Brexit as a failed experiment and his legacy is to be the PM who started to reverse the thing he campaigned for during the referendum. I think we're going to be drip fed reasons why closer alignment (a fig leaf name for soft Brexit) makes sense and a weary British public will just go along with anything that sounds like it will make their lives easier.

 

If the UK ends up with a Swiss style agreement through a series of bilateral agreements, they will be in the single market and the biggest issues surrounding trade will be solved. Yes customs would still apply but these are not the biggest barriers to trade. It's the non-tariff barriers that are really crippling UK exporters. If course, this will require the UK to accept at least Swiss style FoM.

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1 hour ago, murphaph said:

course, this will require the UK to accept at least Swiss style FoM.

 

I don't think they would need to worry too much about that with the value of the GBP, low wages and crumbling services, very sad to say but I don't think many EU residents would want to move there.:(

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Related to that, I read elsewhere that British migration to Ireland is, for the first time since records began, higher than migration from Ireland to Britain.

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Was watching skynews, this morning, Steve Baker, did not accept BREXIT is hurting the UK and was clear that no reverse would be made....  They had the LAbour man on as well, both ruled out re-joining the EU. I think this will be a long road, Both said they want to negotiate the BREIT deal, but I do not see any reason why the EU would want to do that, as the EU have not suffered under this deal.

 

Only the LIB DEMS would want to re-join the EU at the moment, but that vote change is quite un realistic.

 

I get the impression most voters blame BREXIT for part of the pain the UK will have to go through, from watching Question Time. 

 

 

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Well I mean Steve Baker is the so called hardman of Brexit (who felt obliged to apologise to Ireland over the way the negotiations over the NI protocol have been handled so yeah) so he is probably the last man who will state publicly that Brexit is shit. Rees Mogg was still saying that the EU needs the UK more than the other way round only two days ago...on GB News. There is a clear trend in the yougov polls now. 56% think it was a mistake to leave the EU. Only 32% think it was the right thing to do. That will soon be 60/30 and you can only ignore that for so long, especially when the stark economic reality is staring you in the face. The Brexit the Tories chose needed a comprehensive US FTA to have even the remotest chance of it not costing the UK dear. That FTA will not materialise. The UK will be compelled to do the bloody obvious and make trading with the EU easier. This can only be accomplished by joining the SM.

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Mostly agree

 

But what will it take for the Labour party to try and re-join the EU ??  80% / 20 %, in favor ???

 

Its very difficult, to see a set of conditions that will enable Labour to change its position, given a lot of the older people still like Britain being independan. When I visit the UK, I got the impression many people in the UK did not only dislike the EU, but they also absolutely hate the EU.  Banning workers from the EU and getting peopl in from around the world, which makes no sense.

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55 minutes ago, yesterday said:

I get the impression most voters blame BREXIT for part of the pain the UK will have to go through, from watching Question Time. 

I saw that too, quite a turn around now the reality of brexit is coming home to roost!

 

39 minutes ago, yesterday said:

Mostly agree

 

But what will it take for the Labour party to try and re-join the EU ??  80% / 20 %, in favor ???

 

Its very difficult, to see a set of conditions that will enable Labour to change its position, given a lot of the older people still like Britain being independan. When I visit the UK, I got the impression many people in the UK did not only dislike the EU, but they also absolutely hate the EU.  Banning workers from the EU and getting peopl in from around the world, which makes no sense.

Yes, but the issue won't be re-joining the EU it will be the customs union or similar arrangement that I believe Labour will be looking for. I agree with you that it is nonsense to oppose EU FOM but take more permanent immigrants from the sub-continent and elsewhere and it won't take much for voters even the most racist to realise that mistake!

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1 hour ago, yesterday said:

 Banning workers from the EU and getting peopl in from around the world, which makes no sense.

 

Why does that make no sense ? As long as there are jobless people at home. Skills match, I hear them scream. So train them !! There used to be quotas at universities for doctors and dentists. Now they do films, entertainment and wishwashy stuff that is maybe nice to have... but get the nurses in uniforms first, please. This is where Government policy kicks in surely.

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24 minutes ago, optimista said:

Now they do films, entertainment and wishwashy stuff that is maybe nice to have... but get the nurses in uniforms first, please. This is where Government policy kicks in surely.

 

Why would you want to spend a fortune (or take on a massive debt) on a university education to become a doctor or nurse with an expectation of working long hours  for poor wages in an organisation (the NHS) that is going to the dogs?

I don't condone the situation but can certainly understand why young people would choose something else. As regards government policy anyone know what has happened to bojos 40,000 nurses and all those new hospitals?

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1 hour ago, optimista said:

Why does that make no sense ?

 

 

Please enlighten me on the sense of having no EU workers and getting them in from India,W.Indies or wherever.

Am I missing something?

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Perhaps people from India speak better English and can be paid less than Romanians😕

 

I favor less economic "growth", concentration on necessary useful things and reducing working hours/years.

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9 hours ago, murphaph said:

Well I mean Steve Baker is the so called hardman of Brexit (who felt obliged to apologise to Ireland over the way the negotiations over the NI protocol have been handled so yeah) so he is probably the last man who will state publicly that Brexit is shit. Rees Mogg was still saying that the EU needs the UK more than the other way round only two days ago...on GB News. There is a clear trend in the yougov polls now. 56% think it was a mistake to leave the EU. Only 32% think it was the right thing to do. That will soon be 60/30 and you can only ignore that for so long, especially when the stark economic reality is staring you in the face. The Brexit the Tories chose needed a comprehensive US FTA to have even the remotest chance of it not costing the UK dear. That FTA will not materialise. The UK will be compelled to do the bloody obvious and make trading with the EU easier. This can only be accomplished by joining the SM.

 

Even Steve Baker and Rees-Mogg realise they'd look rather silly if they were to do a U turn on Brexit after being cheer leaders for a Hard Brexit. Even if it improved their chances of keeping their seats at next election.   In the case of Rees-Mogg, I think he has general problem with European culture. I suppose he must have had some odd reactions from Europeans he's encountered. Unsurprising really.

 

I'm really disappointed Labour are being so mealy-mouthed about tackling Brexit properly. 'Making Brexit  work' is just a cop out to appease some of their supporters who voted for it, but this must be a dwindling number now.   Some of them voted to keep out the forrinners, but this is and was a noisy minority.  I don't think re-joining the EU is realistic in the short and medium term, but the UK must re-enter the Single Market, and negotiate  a deal for immigration from Europe. Remember, the damage from Brexit was not just to the UK economy, it completly messed up the lives of individuals moving freely between UK and the rest of Europe, something that Germans, for example, more or less consider as part of their birthright. 

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The ERG number ca. 50 MPs. No more than that and some are only members of this cult for the sake of their parliamentary careers (Sajid Javid, for example). I'd say there are about 40 absolute cultists in there who simply loathe the EU and a lot of the Europeans too. But that is not enough to control the entire party if polls continue to develop as they have been developing. Brexit voters are literally dropping like flies (Covid killed off loads of them) every year, accelerated by the declining NHS and missing care staff (many of whome buggered off home when they made to feel entirely unwelcome in England). So, the Brexit voting demographic is dying off. The pensions triple lock will not be safe as UK GDP plunges (there's a good argument for making pensions linked to GDP so pensioners are forced to consider the impact of their votes on the economy at large). The Tories will want to stay in power. They thought supporting Brexit was the way to do this but it turns out Brexit is getting more and more unpopular. I foresee some previously unexpected moves in the coming years. Even in the Mail there are articles appearing about Brexit being dead. The people are being softened up for it. I just hope the EU says no to anything that resembles the mess we have with CH. There needs to be a framework, not a series of bilateral arrangements with the UK. The EU does not need to make concessions because the UK is suffering disproportionately from Brexit. The Eurozone is not even going to have the expected deep recession this winter now. 

 

The UK will not rejoin the EU for a generation, mainly because the EU won't have them in blocking all the things the EU wants to progress in this time of uncertainty. The UK will need to reform itself politically first and have an honest debate about its place in Europe before EU membership could ever be on the agenda, but a trading arrangement (nit like CH, but perhaps like EFTA) will likely happen, because it benefits both sides. But the UK will be swallowing a lot of pride to get that, EU budget contributions, FoM, ECJ etc.

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11 hours ago, alexunterwegs said:

 

Even Steve Baker and Rees-Mogg realise they'd look rather silly if they were to do a U turn on Brexit after being cheer leaders for a Hard Brexit. Even if it improved their chances of keeping their seats at next election.   In the case of Rees-Mogg, I think he has general problem with European culture. I suppose he must have had some odd reactions from Europeans he's encountered. Unsurprising really.

 

I'm really disappointed Labour are being so mealy-mouthed about tackling Brexit properly. 'Making Brexit  work' is just a cop out to appease some of their supporters who voted for it, but this must be a dwindling number now.   Some of them voted to keep out the forrinners, but this is and was a noisy minority.  I don't think re-joining the EU is realistic in the short and medium term, but the UK must re-enter the Single Market, and negotiate  a deal for immigration from Europe. Remember, the damage from Brexit was not just to the UK economy, it completly messed up the lives of individuals moving freely between UK and the rest of Europe, something that Germans, for example, more or less consider as part of their birthright. 

 

Steve Baker and Rees-Mogg together with most of the ERG will lose their seats at the next General election.

 

The ERG will be maybe be 2 MP`s come 2024.

 

 

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2 hours ago, RenegadeFurther said:

 

Steve Baker and Rees-Mogg together with most of the ERG will lose their seats at the next General election.

 

The ERG will be maybe be 2 MP`s come 2024.

 

 

Lets hope so, certainly if voting sentiment is an echo of the feelings shown on the last Question Time a change is coming!:D

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