BREXIT positives and negatives

790 posts in this topic

6 minutes ago, keith2011 said:

Ah so it is OK in Germany for the  party that won to have nearly 75% of the votes not for them but not OK in the UK if the winners had 54% not for them?

Proportional representation, the number of seats in government reflect the number of votes which is why the SPD have to form a coalition whereas the Tories don't.

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1 hour ago, optimista said:

Frankly did anyone at all really understand how far reaching the tentacles of Europe were in the UK ? Certainly not those pulling the strings. They seem quite taken by surprise.

 

A lot of people understood how tightly knit the UK's systems were with the EU. That's essentially what the entire Remain campaign was about.

 

P.S. We don't use the word tentacles in the political sphere anymore unless we are trying to tell people who we are. Tell me again and I'll believe you.

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3 hours ago, French bean said:

Proportional representation, the number of seats in government reflect the number of votes which is why the SPD have to form a coalition whereas the Tories don't.

 

So a party that only got 25% of the vote gets to head the government and that's good is it?

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13 minutes ago, AlexTr said:

That's how it works. There are solutions for you if you don't like it.

And it does actually work, unlike the theatre of Westminster.

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2 hours ago, murphaph said:

And it does actually work, unlike the theatre of Westminster.

 

Whilst I am somewhat hopeful that the next German Government  will be successful I would say that last 5 years was a demonstration of how not to govern with the infighting of the members of the coalition resulting a a complete failure to achieve anything significant. PR and the resulting coalitions also run a real risk that agendas of small radical left or right parties could be introduced into the mainstream despite having minimal voter support.

Although FPTP may  does result in small parties failing to get the representation that the votes they got deserved it has kept Communist and Fascists and UKIP out of the British Parliament and allowed the winning party to introduce the policies they were voted in for. The danger being that those policies may get reversed as a matter of dogma if the opposition succeed in winning the next election, i.e. minimal progress!

I think both systems have their plusses and minuses but at least they are both democratic.

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6 hours ago, keith2011 said:

 

Whilst I am somewhat hopeful that the next German Government  will be successful I would say that last 5 years was a demonstration of how not to govern with the infighting of the members of the coalition resulting a a complete failure to achieve anything significant.

Sort  of like the infighting the Tories regularly have - Hesaltine walking out over Westland during Thatchers reign, Major calling people in his own party Bastards, May being stabbed in the back, Cameron being stitched up by BoJo and Gove etc.

6 hours ago, keith2011 said:

. PR and the resulting coalitions also run a real risk that agendas of small radical left or right parties could be introduced into the mainstream despite having minimal voter support..

Parties in Germany have to get a minimum of 5% of the vote to enter the Bundestag, this is specifically to stop small fringe parties from having unfair influence over policy.

 

At the end of the day it's called democracy, what would you prefer?

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6 hours ago, keith2011 said:

Although FPTP may  does result in small parties failing to get the representation that the votes they got deserved it has kept Communist and Fascists and UKIP out of the British Parliament and allowed the winning party to introduce the policies they were voted in for.

That argument looks pretty weak post-Brexit. UKIP won. With 1 MP. And they did it by getiting enough of a share of the vote to threaten the majority of one of the main parties; keeping them out of Parliament was irrelevant and may have actually helped them with the whole "anti establishment" nonsense.

 

The same could happen in Germany. There's not much chance of the AfD actually winning an election, but the CDU/CSU could start adopting their policies if that's where the votes are. 

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34 minutes ago, French bean said:

Sort  of like the infighting the Tories regularly have - Hesaltine walking out over Westland during Thatchers reign, Major calling people in his own party Bastards, May being stabbed in the back, Cameron being stitched up by BoJo and Gove etc.

Parties in Germany have to get a minimum of 5% of the vote to enter the Bundestag, this is specifically to stop small fringe parties from having unfair influence over policy.

 

At the end of the day it's called democracy, what would you prefer?

 

The Greens with 15% and the FDP with 12% will decide who runs Germany.

 

2 parties with 27% of the vote will decide the next German Government.

 

Hardly democracy.

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1 minute ago, RenegadeFurther said:

 

The Greens with 15% and the FDP with 12% will decide who runs Germany.

 

2 parties with 27% of the vote will decide the next German Government.

 

Hardly democracy.

What alternative would you suggest, given the election results?

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48 minutes ago, RenegadeFurther said:

The Greens with 15% and the FDP with 12% will decide who runs Germany.

2 parties with 27% of the vote will decide the next German Government.

Hardly democracy.

 

Com'on, oldest ever politics argument...

With proportionate representation, a party that got 12% have a say. In Britain, a party with 12% would probably get not even a single MP.

Not saying the German way is better. But the term "hardly democrary" is just wrong.

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2 hours ago, RenegadeFurther said:

The Greens with 15% and the FDP with 12% will negotiate who runs Germany.

2 parties with 27% of the vote will materially influence the next German Government.

 

 

FTFY

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"Britain again warns EU it will trigger Brexit safeguard measures"

 

Quote

(Reuters) - British Brexit minister David Frost warned the European Union on Monday that London would trigger safeguard measures in their divorce deal if the bloc fails to respond to its demands for changes to the so-called Northern Ireland protocol.

 

Addressing the governing Conservative Party's conference in the northern English city of Manchester, Frost told a sparsely populated hall: "Without an agreed solution soon, we will need to act, using the Article 16 safeguard mechanism, to address the impact the protocol is having on Northern Ireland."

 

 

What is Article 16?

 

Quote

Article 16 is a safeguarding mechanism within the Ireland/Northern Ireland protocol, the arrangements agreed as part of the UK–EU Withdrawal Agreement to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland. Article 16 allows either party to undertake unilateral safeguarding measures if the protocol leads to “serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties that are liable to persist, or to diversion of trade”.

 

More

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/northern-ireland-protocol-article-16

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Interesting read:

 

"Economic effects of Brexit"

 

Quote

The economic effects of Brexit were a major area of debate during and after the referendum on UK membership of the European Union. There is a broad consensus among economists that Brexit will likely reduce the real per-capita income level in the UK.

...

Long-term impact on the UK economy


There is overwhelming or near-unanimous agreement among economists that leaving the European Union will adversely affect the British economy in the medium- and long-term.[a][38] Surveys of economists in 2016 showed overwhelming agreement that Brexit would likely reduce the UK's real per-capita income level.[39][29][30] 2019 and 2017 surveys of existing academic research found that the credible estimates ranged between GDP losses of 1.2–4.5% for the UK,[38] and a cost of between 1–10% of the UK's income per capita.[23] These estimates differ depending on whether the UK does a Hard or Soft Brexit.[23] In January 2018, the UK government's own Brexit analysis was leaked; it showed that UK economic growth would be stunted by 2–8% for at least 15 years following Brexit, depending on the leave scenario.[40][41]

 

According to most economists, EU membership has a strong positive effect on trade and, as a result, the UK's trade would be worse off if it left the EU.[42][43][44][45] According to a study by University of Cambridge economists, under a hard Brexit, whereby the UK reverts to WTO rules, one-third of UK exports to the EU would be tariff-free, one-quarter would face high trade barriers and other exports risk tariffs in the range of 1–10%.[46] A 2017 study found that "almost all UK regions are systematically more vulnerable to Brexit than regions in any other country."[47] A 2017 study examining the economic impact of Brexit-induced reductions in migration found that there would likely be "a significant negative impact on UK GDP per capita (and GDP), with marginal positive impacts on wages in the low-skill service sector."[48][23] It is unclear how changes in trade and foreign investment will interact with immigration, but these changes are likely to be important.[23]

Here

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46 minutes ago, RenegadeFurther said:

 

 

Are you a mod? 

 

The last Brexit thread turned into a farce mainly due to Murphys anger management issues, can`t see this one being any different.

That bruised national pride giving you jip again I see. You should get that seen to lol.

 

The last thread was deleted because Brexit is cack and it is embarrassing for certain individuals because they cheered it on.

 

PR means the AfD gets seats in parliament here where their support and numbers can be monitored. FPTP means the UK's version had to simply target marginal Tory seats to take enough votes off them to "force" the Tories to shift way over to the right to the point that the so called party of business elected a leader who was on record as saying "fuck business". The lunatics took over the asylum.

 

 

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5 hours ago, French bean said:

Sort  of like the infighting the Tories regularly have - Hesaltine walking out over Westland during Thatchers reign, Major calling people in his own party Bastards, May being stabbed in the back, Cameron being stitched up by BoJo and Gove etc.

 

The difference being that resignations and sackings, even of ministers, is not that unusual in British governments of whatever party but it does not result in the ruling party being unable to follow the policies on which it was elected. The former German government effectively had many of its policies blocked by it's coalition partners.

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