BREXIT positives and negatives

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See the problem is all those options like "Norway" or "Swiss model" or even a simple customs union are poison to the current shower in charge, the most likely long-term solution they can come up with is some kind of "Singapore on Thames" type model. Extra friendly to the rich and the corporate, screw the poor they don't matter.

And by the time they are forced from power in a few more years time, there will be nothing left to rescue.

Not that I think the current Labour party could fix this shitshow even if they took over now.

Brexit was an absolute disaster and every possible mitigation was ignored or actively fought against.

Every concession from the EU was taken as weakness or a dirty-trick and now a large percentage of the EU think that letting them back in would be poison and they would fight against it.

 

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Don't be overly surprised if the completely unprincipled Tory party makes reversing Brexit their next big policy U-turn, catching Labour out completely.

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All the time there's a cash cow there for the likes of Rees-Mogg, Aaron Banks and Crispin Odey to keep milking, they won't reverse Brexit.

 

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Nasty party poopers.  Be careful who you place your Truss in.

 

I've got a hankerin for chicken-catch-a-tory

 

yum yum

 

Chicken-Cacciatore-IMAGE-12.jpg

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13 hours ago, murphaph said:

Don't be overly surprised if the completely unprincipled Tory party makes reversing Brexit their next big policy U-turn, catching Labour out completely.

That would be some u-turn, more akin to them disappearing up there own collective arses, I can't wait.:D

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They'll do anything to stay in power and when I start seeing the "mood music" in the Telegraph change like this I am just waiting for it in the Express and Mail. If and when they start saying "Brexit could have worked, but..." then you'll know the Tories are about to have a change of heart about the whole thing. A lot of us think the whole thing was a power grab but events have taken over and they are now just along for the ride with rising energy costs and whatnot. The EU can at least try to act as one unit to protect itself from the worst of the increases. The UK is on its own. So, what's the next best thing? Drive the economy off a cliff completely with Trussonomics and then buy up pounds cheaply, before reversing course on the whole thing. As soon as the markets get wind of any possible reversal of Brexit (in name only of course) then the pound will strengthen immediately and the price of UK assets with it. Labour always seem to be reacting to what the Tories do. They leave themselves wide open to being caught out here if the Tories do reverse course.

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Even hardcore Brexiteer MPs have become a lot quieter about the so-called Brexit benefits, and there is now a clear majority of the UK population, who can see Brexit hasn't brought the predicted benefits.  However, the UK opposition parties. especially Labour, need to get their act together and be less mealy-mouthed about recognising the debacle it is, and more importantly, make plans to re-apply for the Single Market and Customs Union. Covid can't  be used as a smokescreen for the UK economic troubles much longer. In spite of that, Brexit' seems a taboo word for many UK politicians. 

 

I appreciate the EU members won't all want to bend over backwards to accommodate the UK, given their tiresome experience to date, but eventually they will realise that its in their interests that the UK has a closer relationship. Macron's invite to this new European grouping was a step in that direction and Guy Verhofstadt went further saying, the UK is welcome back. 

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7 hours ago, alexunterwegs said:

However, the UK opposition parties. especially Labour, need to get their act together and be less mealy-mouthed about recognising the debacle it is, and more importantly, make plans to re-apply for the Single Market and Customs Union.

 

The thing is, it's politics. The name of the game is to win, not necessarily to make the country better or anything. Right now, Labour can just sit back and watch the Tories implode. If there was an election now, Labour would win by default. No work (or policies) needed.

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The UK would be welcomed back into the SM and CU fairly quickly IMO. It takes all the tension out of the relationship (over Northern Ireland). The UK will not be looking for readmission to the actual EU for many years to come down to pride etc. and the EU probably wouldn't agree to it either, certainly not before the UK's electoral system is reformed to prevent these sorts of spasms happening again.

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It is my pleasure to announce that my personal Brexitarget has been achieved.   Currently I need visa to enter UK and I predicted several years ago that the outcome for me from all these Brexit shenanigans is that someday I won't need visa anymore,   I predicted two scenarios, one in which UK realizes the mistake and rejoins the EU or the SM but it is forced to be part of Schengen, and the second one in which we reach some agreement with UK and visas are removed.  I had more faith in the first one because my country is unfortunately (in)famous for causing some sorts of unwanted trading.   However it is the latter which happened.   UK is in such weak position that basically anyone can take advantage of the situation, with our weak uninteresting economy, we just signed a free trade agreement with UK and we put visa removals as hard requirement and the UK swallowed it and agreed.    

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I think a number of the eastern European nations and possibly also Spain, Italy, Portugal and Greece might insist on the UK also joining the Euro if they were to be allowed back in, similarly I can see France and Germany insisting on them joining Schengen. I suspect a few of the other smaller/newer members would want to flex the 'Veto' powers to get some concessions too, so I'm not sure it will be as easy as you think murphaph.

There will be a cost to the UK for re-joining you can be sure of that.

 

 

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Schengen will be a hard requirement papp, you're right about that for sure and yep, there will be a cost to joining but that cost will be lower than staying out. I would be really happy with the UK being forced into Schengen as currently Ireland is also outside Schengen but in our case it's purely down to the situation with Northern Ireland. We would never be able to prioritise travel between the Schengen zone and the Republic over that between NI and the Republic. Ireland stays out of Schengen as long as NI remains in the UK and as long as the UK remains outside Schengen. Ireland has no issues with joining Schengen beyond that. Prior to Brexit there was virtually zero chance the UK would ever join Schengen. Now, it would have to, to rejoin the EU (though not the SM and CU, which would be enough to slow down, halt or likely (to some degree) reverse the economic damage of Brexit). It would be a joy to be able to fly home without the immigration checks, especially slow at Berlin on the way back in sometimes.

 

I think the UK would have the same "must join some day" condition when it comes to the Euro but it could take decades. Sweden joined 30 years ago now and still hasn't adopted it, though it is treaty bound to do so, some day. 

 

But I don't see the UK even applying to join the EU for a very long time. SM and CU yes and this means FoM for young Brits (which is one of the things that will drive any move to rejoin) but full EU membership is unlikely in my lifetime I would have thought. Too much stuff needs changing within the UK and that's if the UK survives as a single entity. That's not a given!

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12 hours ago, alexunterwegs said:

Even hardcore Brexiteer MPs have become a lot quieter about the so-called Brexit benefits, and there is now a clear majority of the UK population, who can see Brexit hasn't brought the predicted benefits.  However, the UK opposition parties. especially Labour, need to get their act together and be less mealy-mouthed about recognising the debacle it is, and more importantly, make plans to re-apply for the Single Market and Customs Union. Covid can't  be used as a smokescreen for the UK economic troubles much longer. In spite of that, Brexit' seems a taboo word for many UK politicians. 

 

I appreciate the EU members won't all want to bend over backwards to accommodate the UK, given their tiresome experience to date, but eventually they will realise that its in their interests that the UK has a closer relationship. Macron's invite to this new European grouping was a step in that direction and Guy Verhofstadt went further saying, the UK is welcome back. 

 

Yes but this time no special status for UK. If they want to come back in the EU this shall be at the same conditions of the other countries.

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3 minutes ago, Frantic said:

 

Yes but this time no special status for UK. If they want to come back in the EU this shall be at the same conditions for the other countries.

That's a given. There are no opt-outs from the treaties for new members, only existing ones. 

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1 hour ago, Frantic said:

 

Yes but this time no special status for UK. If they want to come back in the EU this shall be at the same conditions of the other countries.

 

Yes, but I couldn't see the EU forcing the issue over Schengen or Euro currency membership. They must realise that both would be a non-starter in the UK. 

UK politicians could never sell either to the electorate. Especially when there are existing EU countries who are in neither.

 

However, as Murph says, full EU membership is a long way off. The best we can hope for is membership of the Single Market/Customs Union, so that at least freedom to trade and move backwards and forwards without undue redtape is restored.

  

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This is really quite an excellent summary of events so far. Most of it well known to us on here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wO2lWmgEK1Y&ab_channel=FinancialTimes

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