BREXIT positives and negatives

1,512 posts in this topic

54 minutes ago, optimista said:

Who knits these figures ? Wonder what size needles they use. Anybody gonna disagree ?

 

Agree Optimista. Smells fishy to me.

I can't find anyone else doing a fact check on this particular tweet, but if I do my own checking then it doesn't look right to me.

 

If I look at the FullFact.org website relating to eu contributions they don't have an exact check on this particular claim but they do have a graph showing net contributions.

 

Looking at that graph the source is:-

House of Commons Library 'The UK's contribution to the EU budget' June 2019 (PDF File).

 

In that file is a table on page 11 showing amongst other things the net-contributions per year. If I take that table and sum those figures I get a net contribution over 47 years of £225,366 million (call it 225 Billion for comparison).

 

I'm not 100% sure we can reasonably assume that this information is 'unbiased' but it is probably the best we can get and could in theory be cross checked against EU figures. I assume since full-fact used the graph, they found nothing wrong with it.

 

The claimed 'economic cost' of brexit is not something I bothered to research because it is clearly less than the 225 Billion total contribution.

 

That said, I still think Brexit was insanity and the flavour of Brexit being perused by the UK gov probably the worst possible version of it.

 

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6 hours ago, keith2011 said:

Seems to me these doomsters may not have it quite right.

 

Some Chancellor warned his successor the coffers were empty a few years back. So they are probably not far out. Credit, innit ? Sale of debt. Financial instruments nobody understands. Murky waters... hole at the bottom of bag. But trying to quantify it is like quantifying fog. The Greeks know this. Helps if nobody can read your script and people have to trust your word :lol:

 

Oh boy, am I getting old.

 

I do not want to be in the same club as Greece, Cyprus, Malta... Serbia (God forbid). Wonder how DSK is getting on as Economic Adviser there. It s gone very quiet.

 

Meanwhile food banks are normal, people are cold and blanket handouts are staving off the riots. Will Boris spend his heating supplement wisely ?Tomorrow I am hoping to fly out of the chaos that is MAN airport. All the Eastern block baggage handlers have gone home so I am glad I only have hand luggage.

 

Is this the place to mention that the confirmation of the PLF required for entry to France consists of two blank pages ? So, if I get out of, one country I may not be allowed in the next. Hmmm...

 

My take on it is too many cooks spoil the broth. Nobody has any idea what is going on and nobody can counter chaos. It s a very neat trick.

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I think of all the daft consequences of Brexit (and there's a very long list),  one of the craziest has to be pushing for a return to imperial measurements. . Are there really that many Brits still living in a 1950's time warp? Rees-Mogg is clearly one, but surely they must now be a small, dwindling number. Not only would it be nonsensical for a country which apparently still wants to trade with the outside world, but for Brits themselves, there's little logic as to how the units are calculated. 

It really is sad if the Government thinks this would be popular with the public. 

 

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41 minutes ago, murphaph said:

We may be heading towards suspension of the entire TCA if that bill passes:

https://twitter.com/StevePeers/status/1536396625773576195

 

Not only would triggering a trade war with the EU be extremly dumb, it would be extremly embarassing for the reputation of the UK as a country which abides by the rule of law. Unfortunately though, this is all part of Johnson's strategy. Ex minister Frost (the Lord!) let the cat out of the bag recently when he admitted it was a case of getting any deal over the line. In other words, any deal would do, so Boris could claim he was getting Brexit done, and get himself elected. They thought they could wriggle out of it later if the EU noticed what was happening, and then blame them!

 

You'd hope that there would be enough MPs, as well as the Lords members, to at least seriously delay it coming into force. 

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6 hours ago, alexunterwegs said:

 

Not only would triggering a trade war with the EU be extremly dumb, it would be extremly embarassing for the reputation of the UK as a country which abides by the rule of law. Unfortunately though, this is all part of Johnson's strategy. Ex minister Frost (the Lord!) let the cat out of the bag recently when he admitted it was a case of getting any deal over the line. In other words, any deal would do, so Boris could claim he was getting Brexit done, and get himself elected. They thought they could wriggle out of it later if the EU noticed what was happening, and then blame them!

 

You'd hope that there would be enough MPs, as well as the Lords members, to at least seriously delay it coming into force. 

I get the feeling the Torys want a trade war because then they can blame it all on the EU and their idiot followers will believe it.

Virtually everything the govt does is to help them domestically with their base.

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55 minutes ago, Keleth said:

I get the feeling the Torys want a trade war because then they can blame it all on the EU and their idiot followers will believe it.

Virtually everything the govt does is to help them domestically with their base.

 

The changes to the Northern Ireland protocol has nothing really to do with the EU but with the Civil War inside the Tory party.

 

The only way Boris can stay in power is with support from the ERG and the changes to the NI protocol is basically a way to make the ERG happy. 

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The Americans won't be best pleased about the whole thing either, neither side of the house but the Democrats feel especially close to the GFA as it was created under their watch. 

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1 hour ago, RenegadeFurther said:

 

The changes to the Northern Ireland protocol has nothing really to do with the EU but with the Civil War inside the Tory party.

 

The only way Boris can stay in power is with support from the ERG and the changes to the NI protocol is basically a way to make the ERG happy. 

Basically, the same reason that the Brexit Referendum was called in the first place.

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2 hours ago, RenegadeFurther said:

 

The changes to the Northern Ireland protocol has nothing really to do with the EU but with the Civil War inside the Tory party.

 

The only way Boris can stay in power is with support from the ERG and the changes to the NI protocol is basically a way to make the ERG happy. 

 

To be fair the issue has been exasperated by the DUP refusing to participate in the running of NI until the protocol is changed/scraped. One could be tempted to say that the governance of Northern Ireland, as envisioned by the GFA  has been in chaos for the last 5 years and more without any help from brexit.

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1 hour ago, Keleth said:

Basically, the same reason that the Brexit Referendum was called in the first place.

 

Correct.

 

If it wasn`t the NI protocol, it would be something else the ERG would be complaining about.

  

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From what I understand from the News, its mainly due to the DUP, refusing to work with the sinn fein in their parliament until the agreement is changed. The DUP, blame ( as they see it ) the agreement for the recent majority vote for sinn fein.

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7 minutes ago, RenegadeFurther said:

 

Correct.

 

If it wasn`t the NI protocol, it would be something else the ERG would be complaining about (anti EU).

  

 

Well they will be running out of anything to blame but themselves soon. Despite my hopes that brexit,  much as I thought it was a bad idea, it might prompt a new start and a brighter future, the country has continued to decline even faster and appears to be crumbling under the same issues that are not causing such serious problems elsewhere.

 

 

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The UK economy has demonstrably not recovered anywhere near as well as other comparable nations. That's all this is about. Johnson needs to deflect from the cost of living crisis, which is much worse than here.

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The irony is that the NI economy is doing relatively well thanks to being in the EEA Single Market. That's something Johnson & Co are scared stiff the wider British public will twig. That would lead to more asking why the rest of GB couldn't have stayed in the Single Market. So he's throw his lot in behind the Ulster unionists trying to pretend they speak for NI. 

If tthis ends up as a trade war with the EU, it will be the British consumer that comes off worst, especially those on the lowest  incomes,. not that that will bother Johnson unduly. 

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