BREXIT positives and negatives

1,347 posts in this topic

2 hours ago, Keleth said:

They won´t though. They both have too many MPs who were keen on Brexit themselves.

They need to be a bit braver.  There is now a clear majority back in the UK that realise Brexit was a mistake. 

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On 07/01/2022, 18:05:40, alexunterwegs said:

They need to be a bit braver.  There is now a clear majority back in the UK that realise Brexit was a mistake. 

Lol, politicians brave?

Back to your fairyland and sparkly magical unicorns you go:D

 

Seriously though if they think it will gain them votes then they will, if they don´t think that then no chance.

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Good piece. As I wrote here just a few days ago, a union of unequals:

Quote

For many, the root of Britain’s existential crisis today is Brexit—an apparent spasm of English nationalism that has broken the social contract holding Britain’s union of nations together, revealing the country’s true nature as an unequal union, of the English, by the English, for the English. Although Brexit was carried by a majority of the U.K. as a whole, it was opposed by two of its constituent parts, Scotland and Northern Ireland. It was the votes of England, its dominant nation, that carried the day.

How they scoffed on here at the very idea that Ireland could derail the mighty Brexit. Brexit is in fact derailing the United Kingdom. Some people backed the wrong horse. They never come around anymore, unsurprisingly. They have found other hobby horses, or should I say viruses.

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14 hours ago, murphaph said:

Brexit is in fact derailing the United Kingdom.

 

A unified Ireland in the EU would be a truly great thing! It makes absolute sense economically and geographically and since Dublin has thrown off the yoke of the Catholic church we can only hope the bigots in the north could come to a political accommodation. If nothing else positive comes out of brexit that alone would have made it worthwhile!

Not withstanding the aspirations of the people but Scotland is neither economically nor geographically viable as an independent nation. The split of the UK from the EU has demonstrated how difficult it is to dissolve a union after less than 50 years, imagine how it would be for a formal union after over 300 years and informally even longer with the majority of its trading routes, communications, defence and services interconnected to England via its only land border. The very same reasons that support a unified Ireland also support a union of Scotland, England and Wales, independence won't happen imo, though that is not to say that some radical constitutional changes need to be and should be implemented.

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Brexit made no sense whatsoever but still happened. Even if Scottish independence makes no sense it could also still happen.

 

I think an awful lot of previously small u Scottish unionists do not like that the union of unequals is now so obvious. Scotland is clearly a second class part of the union. If England decides x, x will happen, even if an overwhelming majority of Scots disagree. That irks people. That genie can't be put back in the bottle now. People cannot convince themselves that Scotland is treated on the same footing as England.

 

Also, the UK economy is almost certainly weakening now compared to the rest of the EU and unless something drastic happens, will continue on this path. Expect the Scots nats to use the very same arguments used by Brexiteers, namely that Scotland should not chain itself to a faltering English economy but should look to rejoin the bigger and more robust EU one.

 

As the article says, with the exception of Spain, no other country in Europe is anywhere near as close to fracturing as the UK is. I think that's an entirely accurate position.

 

Personally I think Scotland will secede from the UK before Northern Ireland does. NI is a side show for Brexiteers however. Losing SCotland would be a huge humiliation for them. NI can be explained away. Patriotism, as we have seen with Brexit, often trumps all other concerns and I think Scottish people have become markedly more patriotic since Brexit, not wanting to be tarred with the Brexit brush and all that goes with it. This alone could easily carry any referendum on Scottish independence.

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10 minutes ago, murphaph said:

Brexit made no sense whatsoever but still happened. Even if Scottish independence makes no sense it could also still happen.

I won't argue that brexit was a  loss of sanity by voters but I do think common sense can prevail in terms of Scotland particularly if a fairer UK constitution can be devised. It is ridiculous for example that England has no separate representation and all its business is conducted by the UK Parliament and that the upper house was out of date at the turn of the 19th century let alone in the 21st.

No crystal ball though, we can only wait and see what happens.

15 minutes ago, fraufruit said:

What would Scotland's borders be like if they secede as far as travel, customs, etc.?

 

If an independent Scotland were allowed to join the EU it would have to be a hard border, I can't see the EU going fore another NIP type arrangement

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On 1/8/2022, 8:09:29, Keleth said:

Lol, politicians brave?

Back to your fairyland and sparkly magical unicorns you go:D

 

Seriously though if they think it will gain them votes then they will, if they don´t think that then no chance.

 

Some politicians try to shape public opinion (a good example are the Greens) whilst others are more inclined to just go with the flow.  Labour is a mixed bag, but I'd be more disappointed in parties like the Lib Dems, not sticking up for their clear principled views on Europe.  You don't need to be Einstein to fathom out that Brexit has been a bit of a disaster, even if has been somewhat camouflaged by Covid. Surely they can do more than just relying on the Scots Nats to spell out how it is? 

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Honestly I think if Scotland were to leave he UK and rejoin the EU as an independent state (precipitating NI doing the same thing except as part of Ireland), it would only hasten England seeking to do the very same. In short, I believe the UK will rejoin the EU (in practice if not in name) within my lifetime and it will do it either as a single entity or in component parts...but it will happen because Brexit is just such a bad idea

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3 hours ago, alexunterwegs said:

Lib Dems, not sticking up for their clear principled views on Europe

Didn´t stick up for their principled views on university tuition fees so why would Europe be any different.

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2 hours ago, murphaph said:

Honestly I think if Scotland were to leave he UK and rejoin the EU as an independent state (precipitating NI doing the same thing except as part of Ireland), it would only hasten England seeking to do the very same. In short, I believe the UK will rejoin the EU (in practice if not in name) within my lifetime and it will do it either as a single entity or in component parts...but it will happen because Brexit is just such a bad idea

Not sure if that will happen. I am not even sure the EU would want the UK to rejoin. What for? 

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1 hour ago, Namu said:

Not sure if that will happen. I am not even sure the EU would want the UK to rejoin. What for? 

The UK is still a major economy in Europe. Clearly the EU is better off with the UK as a member.

 

Ironically the problems of a hard border could scupper Scottish independence anyway. If not, I can kind of imagine Scotland voting for independence, citing Brexit,  but putting off becoming full members of the EU indefinitely because of the border question.  

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4 hours ago, Keleth said:

Didn´t stick up for their principled views on university tuition fees so why would Europe be any different.

That was a narrow political point about funding, when they were in a coalition government. The issue about Europe is a lot broader and more fundamental and they are not constrained by any coalition partner.. 

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13 hours ago, Namu said:

Not sure if that will happen. I am not even sure the EU would want the UK to rejoin. What for? 

I grant you this, the EU would not let the UK rejoin now as it is and certainly not based on a sliver of a majority in any referendum. The EU would I believe have no problems whatsoever with Scotland joining in its own right and NI is a given as it would simply become part of Ireland, which is already a member state. The oft cited "but the Spanish wouldn't allow the Scots in" has been thoroughly debunked at this stage.

 

I think if the UK fractures it will lead to some meaningful electoral system reform in England. This is the root of all evil. FPTP is a horrible system as the voter in the safe seat constituency is completely disenfranchised. His or her vote, if they dislike the sitting MP's party, is completely wasted. I do not envisage England getting back in without first having fixed its internal problems and having introduced proportionality to its electoral system. The headcases need to be able to enter parliament and be monitored. If they can't, they will infiltrate the larger parties and effectively steer them. This is what caused Brexit.

 

Once the UK or its successor states have fixed their domestic political systems and a good 60% majority are in favour of entry into the EU, they will be back.

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12 hours ago, Dembo said:

The UK is still a major economy in Europe. Clearly the EU is better off with the UK as a member.

 

Ironically the problems of a hard border could scupper Scottish independence anyway. If not, I can kind of imagine Scotland voting for independence, citing Brexit,  but putting off becoming full members of the EU indefinitely because of the border question.  

The EU is not a trade association. It is much more. And no the UK in the state it is is not a desirable member 

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42 minutes ago, murphaph said:

I grant you this, the EU would not let the UK rejoin now as it is and certainly not based on a sliver of a majority in any referendum. The EU would I believe have no problems whatsoever with Scotland joining in its own right and NI is a given as it would simply become part of Ireland, which is already a member state. The oft cited "but the Spanish wouldn't allow the Scots in" has been thoroughly debunked at this stage.

 

I think if the UK fractures it will lead to some meaningful electoral system reform in England. This is the root of all evil. FPTP is a horrible system as the voter in the safe seat constituency is completely disenfranchised. His or her vote, if they dislike the sitting MP's party, is completely wasted. I do not envisage England getting back in without first having fixed its internal problems and having introduced proportionality to its electoral system. The headcases need to be able to enter parliament and be monitored. If they can't, they will infiltrate the larger parties and effectively steer them. This is what caused Brexit.

 

Once the UK or its successor states have fixed their domestic political systems and a good 60% majority are in favour of entry into the EU, they will be back.

I agree. Probably this might be the really good thing about Brexit: The UK has to finally deal with their problems. I just hope that the government and some parts of the press do not start blaming the EU for all ills again. Punishment etc. It's always easier to believe it's the fault of foreigners.

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