BREXIT positives and negatives

790 posts in this topic

On 05/10/2021, 16:24:21, El Jeffo said:

According to this article, a grand total of 27 (two tens plus seven) HGV drivers have applied for the special visas that BoJo and Co. made available.

 

Out of 5,000.

 

What's the opposite of "going like hotcakes"?

Wetherspoon's beer...

 

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A positive!

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58881124

 

UK job vacancies reach 20-year high

 

Quote:-

It's a good time to be looking for a job.

The number of vacancies hit another record high of 1.1 million and average weekly earnings, including bonuses, are 7.2% higher than this time last year.

However, these numbers contain a number of Covid-related distortions.

The wage numbers are flattered by comparisons to last year when furlough schemes depressed wages and hours worked.

If you strip that out wage rises are closer to 4%.

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That's not a positive for the British economy though Keith because if you starve an economy of labour it will simply not grow as fast as it otherwise would have and tax receipts (the money used to pay for public services) will also not increase as they otherwise would have. The increased wages have to be paid by the general public as prices have to go up to cover the additional costs. The overall standard of living will actually fall but most people in the UK seem not to have cottoned on to this. Ho hum. If it was possible to simply make everything better by forcing higher wages then every government would impose a minimum wage of 50 quid an hour or something and solve all their problems. 

 

Meanwhile Ireland has a whopping 44 ferry connections to France now. Pre-Brexit it was 12. The latest one is, somewhat ironically to Dunkirk:

https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/1011/1252968-dunkirk-irish-ferry/

 

The map is quite astonishing. Brexit Britain is simply being completely bypassed by Irish and Northern Irish businesses. The importance of the land bridge has withered. It's a bit quaint thinking back to Patel's naive plan to starve Ireland lol.

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53 minutes ago, murphaph said:

That's not a positive for the British economy though Keith because if you starve an economy of labour it will simply not grow as fast

 

You are ignoring the fact that the UK has had low wages supported by cheap immigration labour and lenient employment law since early this century. It has resulted in a declining standard of living, reduced productivity and investment and most likely a reaction vote to leave Europe! Your model has not worked. Any improvement in wages and conditions should be a welcome sign that change is possible.

Enjoy your French wine and cheese.:P

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1 minute ago, keith2011 said:

 

You are ignoring the fact that he UK has had low wages supported by cheap immigration labour and lenient employment law since early this century. It has resulted in a declining standard of living, reduced productivity and investment and most likely a reaction vote to leave Europe! Your model has not worked. Any improvement in wages and conditions should be a welcome sign that change is possible.

Enjoy your French wine and cheese.:P

Are you expecting everyone to get a pay rise just because they are home grown workers?

Even if everyone does gets a pay rise, who absorbs that cost, no pay rise for some workers bu one for others, maybe the share holders take a hit, or prices go up?

 

Cash in an economy is like energy, it has to come from somewhere and there is only so much of it. If you give it to one area you take it from another.

 

It will be interesting to see how many of those vacancies are taken in a few months and which ones are open as no one wants to do that kind of work. 

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2 hours ago, cb6dba said:

Are you expecting everyone to get a pay rise just because they are home grown workers?

 

It is not about "home grown workers" it is about trades and some of those trades where wages have been depressed are already benefiting, for example lorry drivers and building/construction workers and I suspect it won't be long before that spreads out to health/care and agricultural workers and other lower paid jobs that no one wanted to do, the shortage will drive the market. Higher wages, more income tax, higher prices more sales tax, higher inflation, reduction of debt!

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6 minutes ago, keith2011 said:

 

It is not about "home grown workers" it is about trades and some of those trades where wages have been depressed are already benefiting, for example lorry drivers and building/construction workers and I suspect it won't be long before that spreads out to health/care and agricultural workers and other lower paid jobs that no one wanted to do, the shortage will drive the market. Higher wages, more income tax, higher prices more sales tax, higher inflation, reduction of debt!

 

Supply and demand always rules at the end of the day, but the dubious part is that it's not coming about naturally but rather being politically driven, At least there's a little bit of honesty creeping back into Brexit as Brexiteers are now talking about immigration again after insisting since 2016 it was nothing to do with immigration. I'm sure we've all had the argument before: get rid of EU immigrants and companies will have to pay more, meaning UK workers will do the jobs, and there'll be a new impetus to train people to do the jobs and so the only shortages will be short-term. I guess we'll find out if it works or not.

 

I plan to find out if it works or not from the safe distance of Germany. Somehow I earn a fair bit more for doing literally the same job I did in the UK despite Germany still being in the EU.

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2 minutes ago, Dembo said:

Somehow I earn a fair bit more for doing literally the same job I did in the UK despite Germany still being in the EU.

Perhaps you should have asked why the same job paid less in the UK despite the fact it was in the EU till recently?

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2 hours ago, keith2011 said:

 

It is not about "home grown workers" it is about trades and some of those trades where wages have been depressed are already benefiting, for example lorry drivers and building/construction workers and I suspect it won't be long before that spreads out to health/care and agricultural workers and other lower paid jobs that no one wanted to do, the shortage will drive the market. Higher wages, more income tax, higher prices more sales tax, higher inflation, reduction of debt!

How does higher inflation reduce debt? It decreases the value of the money you have.

Higher prices wipe out gains in salary.

 

If wages are going up across the board, why would anyone want to do hard agricultural jobs? I expect wages will harmonize to what they are now, fruit pickers will still have the same spending power they do now.

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1 hour ago, cb6dba said:

How does higher inflation reduce debt? It decreases the value of the money you have.

Higher prices wipe out gains in salary.

 

I grew up in Iceland during a time that inflation was sometimes more than 50% per year. How it decreases debt? Let's say you owe 12 months wages. Prices, salary and everything goes up 50%. Now you owe 8 months wages. Next year it's 5 months wages etc.  You don't however want to keep money in the bank because your savings burn up at the same rate.

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3 hours ago, cb6dba said:

If wages are going up across the board, why would anyone want to do hard agricultural jobs? I expect wages will harmonize to what they are now, fruit pickers will still have the same spending power they do now.

 

The same seasonal  workers who have always done the fruit picking but who, following the major reduction in the GBP to Euro exchange rate post brexit vote and now a need for visas, have found it much less attractive to work in the UK. Up the wages and improve the conditions and they will return to benefit from the improved spending power that will give them at home, plus a greater cost of labour should encourage investment in mechanisation.

Thanks to LeonG for that excellent explanation of inflation reducing debt. 

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I'm hearing of other knock on effects of the hgv shortage in the UK. It seems quite often there's crossover in those driving heavy construction plant and holding hgv licences. Now thanks to the supermarkets paying more for drivers, construction workers with hgv licences are leaving the construction industry.

 

The guy who told me this also says there's a lot of South Asians appearing on construction sites to fill the gaps where previously predominantly eastern European labour stood. 

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8 hours ago, keith2011 said:

Up the wages and improve the conditions and they will return to benefit from the improved spending power that will give them at home, plus a greater cost of labour should encourage investment in mechanisation.

So in what way is this a Brexit benefit.

You´re still going to have foreigners doing the work they´re just going to be better paid.

14 hours ago, keith2011 said:

Perhaps you should have asked why the same job paid less in the UK despite the fact it was in the EU till recently?

Are you saying it was because the UK was in the EU?

I can´t see any other reason for this than the govt of the time.

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Minimum wage levels in the economy were never an EU competence. UK government was at all times free to set minimum pay rates at anything they felt like. The fact that the Tory party of all parties is now claiming that Brexit was a wage crusade (and this is obviously being swallowed by the gullible) is nothing short of laughable. The average Tory MP would rather indentured labour than improve workers' rights.

 

Anyway, the EU have been genuinely busy trying to agree consensus to changes to the NI protocol to eliminate a raft of the checks currently required, especially for supermarkets and critically for medicines:

 

The UK are cynically wasting our time as the Tories don't really give a fuck about NI and the problems associated with the protocol. They are terrified of the protocol working and showing up the failure of Brexit in GB when compared to an effective non-Brexit in one small corner of the UK, Northern Ireland. Hence the dismissal of these huge steps by the EU by Frost yesterday, before they had even been officially published. Hence the ECJ oversight being a problem, despite not one single report being made to Manufacturing Northern Ireland by any of its members that they have a problem with the ECJ having any oversight because it makes practically no difference to ordinary people where the highest court of arbitration actually sits.

 

As we edge closer to a trade war (engineered by the Tories to provide ongoing cover for the problems GB is facing), I am more inclined for the EU to respond with a wholesale suspension of the TCA, rather than targeted tariffs. The NIP is an integral part of the whole withdrawal agreement (indeed it came before the TCA) and if the UK is effectively going to tear it up and ignore its provisions, then the EU should respond in kind and suspend the entire TCA.

 

This would then be a no-deal Brexit. All trucks entering the EU at places like Calais would need to be checked thoroughly. There would be huge panic buying in GB and shortages would quickly manifest themselves as EU haulage firms would not take loads to the UK only to have their trucks stuck over there. I believe this is more likely than ever because in reality the Tories mostly care about protecting the giant money laundering operation that is the City of London. What happens to ordinary people comes much lower on their list of priorities.

 

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Powerful stuff Murph, unfortunately more believable than anything coming out of UK Gov. As for the minimum wage, it should be remembered that when the Labour Gov't introduced the minimum wage it was the Tories who lobbied heavily against it using the argument that it would cost jobs. Well as we know it didn't cost jobs it in fact increased tax receipts to the treasury, it increased circulation of money in the economy and it reduced people's dependence on gov't hand outs. The last is particularly relevant as it effectively meant the gov't was subsidising the profits of companies because of they could get away with paying low wages. If a socialist gov't had suggested subsidising an industry, a number of Tories would be up in arms.

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