Who to vote for, Bundestagswahl 9/26/2021?

58 posts in this topic

4 hours ago, El Jeffo said:

The tax aspect is admirable, but Germany already has some of the highest income tax rates in the world (the top marginal rate is 45%) and to the Linke, you're considered "rich" if you earn more than 50-60k/year. So be careful what you wish for there. 

The good thing is that they lie just like FDP lies they want to reduce taxes for the middle class. In the end of their last government with Merkel they achieved a huge tax reduction of 20 euro. Germany has one of the most complicated tax systems in the world, all the promises to change this can be ignored.

 

The most consistent center left party is Die Grünen. And mind you I am writing it as a supporter of no speed limit on the autobahn and atomic energy. The latter is already  being eliminated, the former will be applied anyway, a matter of time when. But all their other positions are appealing to me, including their pro-democracy stance, opposition to China and Russia dictatorships etc.

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, El Jeffo said:

 

Last but not least, Die Linke are the direct heirs of the corrupt GDR regime and also tend to attract some of the worst politicians ever to enter the business this side of the AfD (see Oskar "Sore Loser" Lafontaine and Sarah "Mercedes Marxist" Wagenknecht).

 

And this is the problem.

 

Both the SPD and Greens have not ruled out governing with Die Linke.

 

The way the polls are Die Linke will be in Government and will have one of the ministries.

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I would bet a shilling on SPD/Gruene/FDP in that order.

 

A few years ago I was trying to puzzle out what FDP stood for. A plausible suggestion then was "fast drei prozent", nearly three percent %)

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Another bad take from the Emerald Isle.

 

The 5% rule has helped Germany avoid having the chaotic parliaments and short-lived governments of countries like Israel and Italy.

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Small parties who win several seats direct are exempt from the 5% rule (SSW, Danish party in Schleswig-Holstein for example). German democracy is complicated, but it seems to work.

 

Mrs Merkel is visiting Templin, where she was brought up, Friday. I wonder what history's verdict on her will be.

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2 hours ago, Fietsrad said:

Small parties who win several seats direct are exempt from the 5% rule (SSW, Danish party in Schleswig-Holstein for example). German democracy is complicated, but it seems to work.

 

 

Not quite accurate. The two exceptions aren't related.

1) Anyone who wins a direct seat (as opposed to being elected through the party list) gets that seat. You must have a certain number of seats to gain parliamentary group status, however.

2) The SSW is indeed except from the 5% rule because it represents a recognized national minority. In addition to the SSW, the Lausitzer Allianz (Sorbians) and Die Friesen (Fresians) are also exempt. (source)

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2 hours ago, Fietsrad said:

Small parties who win several seats direct are exempt from the 5% rule (SSW, Danish party in Schleswig-Holstein for example). German democracy is complicated, but it seems to work.

 

Mrs Merkel is visiting Templin, where she was brought up, Friday. I wonder what history's verdict on her will be.

 

Not really. The FDP which will get about 13% of the vote could be Kingmaker in the next Government and make all sorts of demands.

 

How is that democracy.

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What would you suggest as a better alternative? FPTP?

 

The DUP got 0.6% of the total vote in the UK GE in 2017 and was kingmaker and did make all sorts of crazy demands. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_United_Kingdom_general_election

 

In Germany politics is fundamentally different. Politics is done by way of consensus rather than parliamentary theatre.

 

The FDP could make all sorts of crazy demands but the parties that might consider going into coalition with them can't concede to all or even most of those demands or they themselves will be penalised electorally. That's why the FDP will certainly make some demands, but cannot demand its entire manifesto be implemented. That's how coalition government works. 

 

It never ceases to amaze me how people complain that party x went into government and voted against y that was in its own manifesto. Yep, parties must concede parts of their own manifestos to get into government to implement some of their manifesto. It's just how it works and it has delivered stable government here for almost the entirety of the existence of the federal republic.

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Could be interesting, greens and FDP* quarrelling. FDP chickened out last time, so they can be trusted to do almost anything to get power.

 

* fast drei-zehn prozent, nearly thirteen percent, this time?

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On 7.9.2021, 17:19:50, Fietsrad said:

A few years ago I was trying to puzzle out what FDP stood for. A plausible suggestion then was "fast drei prozent", nearly three percent %)

"FDP" in Portuguese stands for "Filho Da Puta", or SOB! (Son Of Bitch)

Imagine my amusement when I came to Germany and saw outdoor posters with an old man picture and a big "FDP"(SOB) logo!

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On 8.9.2021, 13:56:57, murphaph said:

What would you suggest as a better alternative? FPTP?

 

I would prefer direct mandates only and no lists.

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Honestly I think the Irish electoral system is the best in the world in some respects. Has a tinge of Westminster theatrical bollocks to it at times but the PRSTV system is about as democratic as it gets. But the German system is still leagues ahead of FPTP where a party can garner maybe 35% of the total vote share and at the same time have a landslide victory in terms of seats.

 

In principle though I don't mind lists because to get stuff done you really do need political parties. One trick pony independents fighting on one particular local issue are not the way to run a country.

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What about the size of the Bundestag? It should be 598, but now it has 709 members because of Augleichsmandate, balancing memberships, could be even bigger this time. Even the Bundeskanzleramt is being extended to make room for 395 more burocrats.

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35 minutes ago, Fietsrad said:

What about the size of the Bundestag? It should be 598, but now it has 709 members because of Augleichsmandate, balancing memberships, could be even bigger this time. Even the Bundeskanzleramt is being extended to make room for 395 more burocrats.

 

That is a side effect of the list system. Direct mandates only would correct this.

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4 hours ago, Fietsrad said:

"Laschet managed to come fourth from a field of three!", laughed a commentator.

I missed that comment, but that was pretty much what I was thinking too. Scholz seems to be a shoe-in. I'm not really convinced by him, but he is a slick operator when it comes to handling the questions from both the moderators and (when he thought it was useful) the other participants. It seems that alone might be enough to win him the election.

Although voting by post makes life easier, there's just something about voting in person which I prefer. We often have "Wahlschoppen" here in the village too which makes it more of an event: we had a turnout of almost 90% for the EU elections a few years ago. 

 

 

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We can be glad we are not in the UK, BoJo intends to challenge Mrs Thatcher by staying in office more than ten years.

 

Not so long ago, I thought he was planning to leave politics and take a much easier job earning much more cash.

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