Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0

Israel - UAE - Bahrain peace deal: a new era in the Middle East?

18 posts in this topic

I am not sure if this is covered in the German (and European) media, since they tend to cover war and terror while peace agreements do not generate enough clicks.

 

I think, this is a really historical event, the Abraham Accords. Not sure if it's correct to name it "peace deal" as UAE and Israel has never been at war, rather this is the first time in history when a Muslim country establishes diplomatic relationships with Israel not as a result of lost war (as was the case with Jordan and Egypt).

 

Several days after announcement Dubai opens the first kosher restaurant:

https://www.timesofisrael.com/uaes-first-ever-kosher-restaurant-launches-in-worlds-tallest-building/

 

They also alter school textbooks to include the agreement where Israel is recognized as Israel, not "Occupied Palestinian Territorries".

https://www.ynetnews.com/article/rJtwMeTEv

 

Can this be the beginning of the end of Middle East as the war and terror hot spot? Hard to imagine as for now, but what is now happening is really unprecedented.

5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, yourkeau said:

I am not sure if this is covered in the German (and European) media, since they tend to cover war and terror while peace agreements do not generate enough clicks.

 

Yeah, it was covered in the media but I think most people aren't really interested about what goes on in Middle East, anymore. If indeed, they were interested in the first place. 

 

Trump being up for a Nobel Peace prize seemed to get more coverage in the MSM but that's just my perception. 

 

1 hour ago, yourkeau said:

I think, this is a really historical event, the Abraham Accords. Not sure if it's correct to name it "peace deal" as UAE and Israel has never been at war, rather this is the first time in history when a Muslim country establishes diplomatic relationships with Israel not as a result of lost war (as was the case with Jordan and Egypt).

 

My 2 cents.

 

It's one thing signing a 'peace deal', as you put it, but does it change how Mohammed Mustermann sees Yitzhak Doe

 

There's always someone who is upset. 

 

Anyways, I hope Trump does get the recognition he deserves for brokering the deal, not least, because it will make the lefties cry. 

2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, hellfire99 said:

It's one thing signing a 'peace deal', as you put it, but does it change how Mohammed Mustermann sees Yitzhak Doe

I believe, yes. Emiratis are business people, and secretly there was economic collaboration between the countries.

I live in a mixed population city with 30% Arabs (Christians and Muslims, I do not know the proportion). These are very nice and intelligent people, in total contrast with those from Palestinian Territories where they are taught Jihad at schools. Not a single Arab from Haifa has ever committed terror attack (attacks in Haifa were always carried by outsiders from West Bank).

 

So I do believe that changes are possible, and this peace deal is different.

 

There are many external reasons for that, in particular Iran which attacked Saudi oil infrastructure a while ago, and which supports terror militias in Syria and Lebannon. Collaboration with Israel is now seen as vital.

 

This is so ironic, as before Islamist coup Iran was in good relations with Israel.

1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Did I mention the German government is going to classify QAnon as just as dangerous as Scientology?

 

3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 9/26/2020, 6:09:20, jeremytwo said:

Wait till you hear about the secret Gaza Marine Project...

It's not secret at all. Offshore gas fields have been discovered all over Mediterranean in the Middle East.

 

Israel is indeed blocking any development in Gaza as the money will not go to Palestinian Authority, they will go to Hamas, and they will use the money to fire more rockets at Israel. My partner is from Ashdod, this is the southern city where rockets fall at least once a month for the last 15 years. Most people are well trained to rush into the shelter (they have 30 seconds for that, in Haifa it's 2 minutes, and some cities directly at the border - 15 seconds), but from time to time there are fatalities.

 

It seems the main financial donors of this theater do not need it anymore.

 

 

1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 26.9.2020, 14:16:32, yourkeau said:

I think, this is a really historical event, the Abraham Accords. Not sure if it's correct to name it "peace deal" as UAE and Israel has never been at war, rather this is the first time in history when a Muslim country establishes diplomatic relationships with Israel not as a result of lost war (as was the case with Jordan and Egypt).

TBH it amounts to almost nothing.

Historic would be having recognition with Palestine, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey etc.

UAE is meaningless.

 

Personally I don´t take sides on the conflict, both have made terrible things and this mixture of religion, cultural identity and economy war has no solution until either one side prevails, or they give up on some believes. Of course, this is not an isolated bubble and the rest of the world suffers from this war in the form of terrorism, muslim radicalization and nationalism.

 

My best solution for the problem is to dry the persian gulf of its income. Stop importing gas and oil. Then money stops fueling radicalization and the problem de-escalates. On Israel side, they do need to keep their radicals under control.

Europe should rethink its energy strategy to stop depending on them, plus Russia. Want to sell gas to Europe? Then treat women properly, stop those religious wars, and so on.

3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 9/29/2020, 3:11:41, MikeMelga said:

TBH it amounts to almost nothing.

Historic would be having recognition with Palestine, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey etc.

UAE is meaningless.

 

Turkey? It is fine, at least up until now king Erdogan is showing imperialist ambitions and playing with the Islamist part of the society. But this is internal Turkish politics, the country is dependent on tourism, and economic cooperation with Israel is vital. So, it is  empty barking.

 

Saudis? Last year allowed an airplane originating from TLV to fly via their airspace. A small step showing that the common enemy Iran can change their mind very fast.

 

Palestinian conflict is another story.

 

Quote

My best solution for the problem is to dry the persian gulf of its income. Stop importing gas and oil.

What do you think is happening now? Historic drop in oil consumption worldwide, due to COVID. This is one of the reasons for this peace deal, too.

 

 

1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, yourkeau said:

What do you think is happening now? Historic drop in oil consumption worldwide, due to COVID. This is one of the reasons for this peace deal, too.

This is temporary. We need a long term solution.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, yourkeau said:

What do you think is happening now? Historic drop in oil consumption worldwide, due to COVID. This is one of the reasons for this peace deal, too.

 

There is a country with a large economy and large military which has also turned into a net oil exporter in the past few years.    That country may not have as many defined interests in keeping the oil flowing and maintaining stability in the region.    In fact, that country's manufacturing sector would gain by instability.  

 

Everyone needs to scramble for "friends".   It's a tough neighborhood.   I hope for the best.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 26/09/2020, 17:42:03, hellfire99 said:

Anyways, I hope Trump does get the recognition he deserves for brokering the deal, not least, because it will make the lefties cry. 

 

Did Trump actually do much brokering? As someone who now lives in the area, as far as I know this was about local interests, not about Trump?

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Mackle said:

 

Did Trump actually do much brokering? As someone who now lives in the area, as far as I know this was about local interests, not about Trump?

 

Was the Egypt / Israel peace agreement brokered by Jimmy Carter about non-local interests?

 

Was the Good Friday Agreement about remote interests?

 

My guess is that the broker twisted a few arms and created some financial incentives for the various parties to recognize what is in their best interests like many other agreements.     

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Mackle said:

 

Did Trump actually do much brokering? As someone who now lives in the area, as far as I know this was about local interests, not about Trump?

We don't know. The history books will show how much role he played there. But without him this wouldn't have happened, this is for sure. 

 

Even if he did nothing, he did it correctly. 

 

 

 

 

1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Mackle said:

Did Trump actually do much brokering? 

 

I would assume, so. 

 

6 hours ago, Mackle said:

As someone who now lives in the area, as far as I know this was about local interests, not about Trump?

 

I suppose you would have to define what you mean by 'local'. 

 

The BBC gives some insights into the 'local issues' that are affected by the accords. 

 

Five reasons why Israel's peace deals with the UAE and Bahrain matter   (BBC 14.09.20)

 

Quote

1. The Gulf states see opportunities for trade and more


The deal helps the ambitious Emiratis, who have built themselves into a military power as well as a place to do business or go on holiday.

It looks as if the Americans helped seal the deal with the promise of advanced weapons that in the past the UAE has barely been able to window-shop. They include the F-35 stealth fighter and the EA-18G Growler electronic warfare aircraft.

 

The UAE has used its already well-equipped armed forces in Libya and Yemen. But its most serious potential enemy is Iran, just on the other side of the Gulf.

 

Both Gulf states already had barely concealed ties with Israel. They will look forward to trading openly; Israel has one of the world's most advanced high tech sectors.

In non-Covid times, Israelis are avid holidaymakers who will be keen to explore the deserts, beaches and malls of the Gulf. It is good business all round.

 

So American defense jobs. 

 

Quote

2. Israel lessens its regional isolation

 

Israelis do not like being isolated in the Middle East. Peace with Egypt and Jordan has never been warm. They might be more hopeful about future relations with Gulf countries a long way from the cockpit of Jerusalem and the occupied territories.

Strengthening the alliance against Iran is another big plus. Mr Netanyahu sees Iran as Israel's number one enemy, at times comparing its leaders to the Nazis. He has muted his original complaints about the UAE's possible arms deal.

 

It furthers the strategic realignment of the Sandpit. 

 

Quote

3. Donald Trump celebrates a foreign policy coup


The deal works on a number of levels for the US president.

 

It is a big boost for his strategy of "maximum pressure" on Iran. It is also useful ammunition, especially in an election year, to back his boast that he is the world's best dealmaker.

 

Anything he does that benefits Israel, or more specifically the government of Benjamin Netanyahu, goes down well with American Christian Evangelical voters, an important part of his electoral base.

 

Played well to religious nuts in the election year. 

 

Quote

4. Iran has a new strategic headache


The deal has been roundly condemned by the Iranian leadership. It is more than rhetoric. The Abraham Accords put them under extra strain.

President Trump's sanctions are already causing real economic pain. Now they have a strategic headache too.

 

Israel's home airbases are a long flight from Iran. The UAE's are just across the waters of the Gulf. That would be highly significant if there was a return to talk of air strikes against Iran's nuclear sites.

 

Israel, the US, Bahrain and the UAE have a range of new options. The Iranians find their room for manoeuvre has been reduced.

 

More pressure on them Iranians. 

 

So there is something in it for everyone by the looks of it. 

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How many Israelis travel to Egypt or Jordan now? Or even to the West Bank? Governments opening official channels is good, a thaw in the region couldn't hurt. But I don't know how much will really change for the average person. Lots of prejudices and fear-mongering amongst Israelis, Emeratis and other Arabs all over the place though. I'll take a wait and see approach.

 

As far as governments are concerned, this seems obviously about military hardware. Israel is the gun cabinet of the Middle East, and with more Western voters being slightly unsettled by their armoured car brands being used to lob grenades at protestors, various Gulf dictators need a reliable source of crowd soothing. Drones are also making war easier, suddenly an air force at a fraction of the cost. They will allow smaller players to do what they couldn't before. Azerbaijan was certainly thankful for Israeli drones (too bad the Armenians don't have oil!), and the UAE has used Chinese-built drones in Libya supporting its warlord faction there. Expect a lot more of that in the future.

 

But also shopping, quad bikes and good curry. 

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

First flight from Tel Aviv lands in Dubai. 

https://www.timesofisrael.com/200-israelis-land-in-uae-as-flydubai-plane-returns-after-inaugural-israel-flight/

 

The irony is, UAE temporarily stopped issuing visas to several Muslim countries (Iran, Pakistan, Syria etc) but opened the borders to Israelis. What a time to be alive!

 

On 11/19/2020, 12:21:58, alderhill said:

How many Israelis travel to Egypt or Jordan now?

To Sinai, a lot: it's 10 times cheaper than overprices Eilat, the only Red Sea resort here. To Jordan, less so, but there is some tourism. 

 

Ironically, Dubai is one of the few "mutual green" places to travel from Israel (no quarantime both ways required, no PCR test necessary). E.g. Germany is green only on return, but Israel is red for Germans, so need to quarantine, cannot travel as a result. 

3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 30/11/2020, 15:08:08, yourkeau said:

The irony is, UAE temporarily stopped issuing visas to several Muslim countries (Iran, Pakistan, Syria etc) but opened the borders to Israelis. What a time to be alive!

 

Indeed what a time to be alive, especially with the relaxation of alcohol laws (residents no longer need a licence to buy and consume) and the abolition of unmarried cohabitation as a criminal offence. 

 

Oddly, from what I could see on regional websites, the above got more coverage than the peace deal!

 

3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0