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MIke, pls can you explain your graph to me, I cant find your first post explaining what is what

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I don't understand why Vietnam, Singapore, Hong Kong have so few cases. They are close to China, have lots of Chinese, lots of travel back and forth.
 

And India. Still less than 200 cases? Almost unbelievable.

 

Should it spread in India it would be horrific. Absolutely no chance of containment or lockdown. Millions of people live on the streets, and quite happily so. Most of everyday life  takes place outside the home, people mingling, humungeous (sp?) crowds.

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Just now, arunadasi said:

I don't understand why Vietnam, Singapore, Hong Kong have so few cases. They are close to China, have lots of Chinese, lots of travel back and forth.
 

And India. Still less than 200 cases? Almost unbelievable.

 

Should it spread in India it would be horrific. Absolutely no chance of containment or lockdown. Millions of people live on the streets, and quite happily so. Most of everyday life  takes place outside the home, people mingling, humungeous (sp?) crowds.

BBC had agreat article on how Singapore identified, tracked all contacts, tested and quarantined  people.  They were right on it. Cleanest place in Asia- love it!

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suppose, maybe one of the only positive sides of this virus, is the lack of traffic in Munich, driving back from work today, the mittler ring just did not stop-and-go like it normally does - guess its because of all the home working going on - like I do now 3 or 4 days a week.  

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28 minutes ago, arunadasi said:

I don't understand why Vietnam, Singapore, Hong Kong have so few cases. They are close to China, have lots of Chinese, lots of travel back and forth.
 

And India. Still less than 200 cases? Almost unbelievable.

 

Should it spread in India it would be horrific. Absolutely no chance of containment or lockdown. Millions of people live on the streets, and quite happily so. Most of everyday life  takes place outside the home, people mingling, humungeous (sp?) crowds.

I would think that it is rife in India, and that a lot of people are or will be dieing from it. They have so many very poor people who die and are cremated fast that they would not know how many were due to CV :( 

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1 hour ago, oscar 63 said:

do you mean return to normality, in Germany? 

 

when do you think?!

 

#wishfulthinking

In Germany, 6-10 weeks after a lockdown, which is about to happen. Somewhere between Saturday and Monday. If they had done it a month ago, it would only need 3-4 weeks.

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8 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

In Germany, 6-10 weeks after a lockdown, which is about to happen. Somewhere between Saturday and Monday. If they had done it a month ago, it would only need 3-4 weeks.

 

My Dad lives in France, and I was talking to him this evening. He told me they have to print out and sign a form anytime they want to go out (i.e. to the supermarket), which the police will demand to see if they stop you. Which seems a bit ridiculous in their case as they're retired and live in a tiny village.

 

Maybe this is what we'll have. Though first problem: I don't have a printer.

 

Great work on the graphs BTW. 

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1 hour ago, oscar 63 said:

MIke, pls can you explain your graph to me, I cant find your first post explaining what is what

 

Ok, I've redone them with legend.

The top chart is a cumulative number of deaths in Italy since February 21st. The scale is logarithmic, because the growth is logarithmic, so it was a good forecast for the first few weeks. In the meantime, it is easy to see a slowndown. The past 2 weeks have seen a reduction of the trend.

It's a good graph to show small to big numbers. You start small, a few deaths per day, but an exponential growth can lead to hundreds per day in a few weeks. The first two weeks had an incredible growth. If that had been sustained, we would have already 16.000 deaths today (black line). Fortunately it started to slow down and today we are well below the average growth (light blue line).

m19.png.1f281382ed1ec532f14da6059e84b12e

 

The next graphs are a daily death count using the same data. I've placed one with a logarithmic and another with a linear scale.

On the linear scale, I've added a polynomial curve fit with a forecast for 7 days, showing that peak of deaths will probably come next week, but still at over 600 deaths in a single day.

m19_2.png.b06526cf71d28f551b13f13548a1d9

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I saw Trump say today that they will start testing Chloroquine as a cure. He said it would be a game-changer. No real doctors agree with him and many drugs are being tested.

 

I saw Boris say today that they are trying to come up with a test for antibodies that would indicate if someone had already had the virus. He said it would be a game-changer.

 

Neither one of them could form a complete sentence.

 

Dr. Ho who invented the AIDS cocktail said that they are also working on an antibody test. He also said that this virus could become seasonal which wouldn't be too bad after they have a vaccine for it. It would jump from northern to southern hemispheres with the weather. All speculation but interesting just the same.

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1 minute ago, fraufruit said:

I saw Trump say today that they will start testing Chloroquine as a cure.

I saw that headline today and thought: Trump thinks he can come up with some sophisticated scientific idea on the fly because he truly believes that he's just so clever and no one else has thought of it yet.  Never mind that he has absolutely no scientific background whatsoever.  I can not fathom how anybody around him can keep a straight face.  It's mind boggling.  

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20 minutes ago, BethAnnBitt said:

I saw that headline today and thought: Trump thinks he can come up with some sophisticated scientific idea on the fly because he truly believes that he's just so clever and no one else has thought of it yet.  Never mind that he has absolutely no scientific background whatsoever.  I can not fathom how anybody around him can keep a straight face.  It's mind boggling.  

Actually, Germany is also testing this. And it has been used in China and Italy, but the benefits are not clear.

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Great! But "Trump calls anti-malarial drug a ‘game-changer’ for coronavirus, but the FDA says it needs study" is the headline of the Washington Post.  Seems the actual scientsists aren't ready to shoot their mouths off like him.

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Well he didn't make it up. One of his best people told him to say it.

 

And, yes, it has been tried in other places - not a big breakthrough as Trump presented it.

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Total lockdown declared in Portugal. This should be interesting, because it was done well in the beginning of the crisis there, only 3 deaths so far, around 800 infected.

AFAIK, it is the most premature lockdown yet, let's see the results.

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4 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

In Germany, 6-10 weeks after a lockdown, which is about to happen. Somewhere between Saturday and Monday. If they had done it a month ago, it would only need 3-4 weeks.

 

 

If it happens, it will be Monday.  Nothing ever gets done in Germany on weekends.

 

 

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I heard they meet Sunday to decide on lockdown. I think lockdown would start Tuesday at the earliest. So far, all measures had at least a day preparation time.

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