5,147 posts in this topic

1 hour ago, UpToWick said:

 

 

Germany is doing next to nothing...even Trump seems to have taken the issue more seriously. People here are too slow to understand and don't take things seriously (years of economic growth probably created a mindset that Germany is an island sheltered by the storms). I still see tons of people here in Munich going to parks, biergartens, not keeping the distance with each other in supermarkets, making fun of people with masks. 

All while I hear more and more ambulances on the street.

 

This is not a simple flu, it's the new plague.

Don't watch these videos if you are sensitive, but they should give you an idea of the scale of this disease.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rfkbv_WQtn0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y7nZ4mw4mXw 

Well, here in RLP they are taking things a little more seriously. I went passed Rewe and a member of staff was controlling people going in, looked like one out, one in. In Lidl, someone was reminding people to keep a distance when queuing. There is next to no one out in the evening when I walk the dog and some people have started wearing facemasks. I popped into the doctors, chairs in the waiting room were spread out and his assistant was wearing a face mask, with my Daughters doctor, the Dr was wearing a face mask.

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It's hit and miss. Hornbach Velten yesterday was a free for all. Hornbach Potsdam Marquart had security doing 1 in 1 out. It makes a huge difference to have people standing in line outside as opposed to inside at the checkouts.

 

I think we are headed for a lockdown though, starting in the worst affected states.

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On 12/03/2020, 23:54:30, jeremytwo said:

Nesara.

 

On 12/03/2020, 23:54:30, jeremytwo said:

Nesara.

 

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In the Netherlands consumers can now also buy their groceries at wholesale distributors since most regular customers like restaurants and bars are closed. This will relieve supermarkets as well. One could buy 10 kg of baked beans or 5 kg jars with pickles :).

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One thing that has left me flummoxed over the last few days is Porridge being sold out. It's not a german thing to each porridge and normally there's loads of it but not anymore. I was able to restock my supply from a small independent supermarket run by an Afghan. He still has loads of 10 kilo bags of rice, tinned veg, pasta etc. The average local won't go in there because it does look a bit tired but as he is supplied by Edeka, it's their loss.

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The Germans like their oats. So healthy. And they keep ages. You can live a long time on oats when all else has gone. Even the toilet paper. :lol:

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33 minutes ago, LukeSkywalker said:

In the Netherlands consumers can now also buy their groceries at wholesale distributors since most regular customers like restaurants and bars are closed. This will relieve supermarkets as well. One could buy 10 kg of baked beans or 5 kg jars with pickles :).

 

What does one do with 10 kg. baked beans once opened? It's not like you could have a lot of guests over.

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I dare say if you eat the 10kg yourself you won't have guests for some considerable time anyway!

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3 hours ago, French bean said:

I popped into the doctors, chairs in the waiting room were spread out and his assistant was wearing a face mask, with my Daughters doctor, the Dr was wearing a face mask.

 

I'm meant to go to the doctors this week for a B12 injection, which is a case of just going in and saying "I need a B12 injection" in my best German. I don't know what to expect - am I going to be sat in a waiting room full of sick people, making my chances of infection 100x better, or on the other hand, if people are heeding the warnings to stay away it might be empty. I'll have to go look tomorrow. It's quite a small office too; I'm not sure you could stand 2 metres from the counter.

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Baked beans contain a lot of proteine similar to red meat, but no cholesterol and much cheaper as well. I put them on toasted bread, which was sold out in my local Edeka after I took the last remaining pack. Lucky me :).

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47 minutes ago, Dembo said:

 

I'm meant to go to the doctors this week for a B12 injection, which is a case of just going in and saying "I need a B12 injection" in my best German. I don't know what to expect - am I going to be sat in a waiting room full of sick people, making my chances of infection 100x better, or on the other hand, if people are heeding the warnings to stay away it might be empty. I'll have to go look tomorrow. It's quite a small office too; I'm not sure you could stand 2 metres from the counter.

I go every 4 weeks for an injection and I phone first, which I did today. They knew I was coming, chaperoned me straight into a treatment room and I left without going through the waiting room.

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Some relative good news: 427 deaths in Italy, below yesterday's.

I'm now including a polynomial fit (red line) with a 7 day forecast. At current rate, we will have 8000 deaths a week from now. Still much less than initial estimations, meaning there is a stronger and stronger slowdown, probably effects of the lockdown and increased experience in treating patients.

m19.png.2bde6f7c170e623b3db11666e3550a45

 

Peak deaths per day is diverting more and more from exponential and seems to be around 700, which is consistent with what I've said a few days ago, between 500 and 1000, but closer to 500.

 

BTW, next Monday will pass 2 weeks after lockdown. As most people develop symptoms in the first 14 days, I expect that from Monday on we start having much better results, a more abrupt slowdown. I hope that 1 week from now we can start forecasting return to normality. As a first guess, I think total number of deaths will be below 25.000. If it slows down dramatically by mid next week, it could even be below 15.000.

m19_2.png.8ca529b8bd7c0a8fa0159f6660860b

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do you mean return to normality, in Germany? 

 

when do you think?!

 

#wishfulthinking

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