5,101 posts in this topic

On 2/3/2020, 11:08:24, fraufruit said:

What is a hash tag? I've never seen one.

You are as old-fashioned as I am!

(Hash meant something different back then..cough..)

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On 4.2.2020, 22:29:19, MikeMelga said:

Better than being a chinese official, i.e. there is nothing going on...

 

According to my wife:

 - Doctors and experts in Germany and Europe in general do not trust at all what China is saying, giving the fact that experts in China have been threatened and arrested for speaking since day 1.

  - the mortality rate seems to hold fast at 2% or more, 20 times higher than the common flue.

 - While SARS had a mortality rate far higher than that, it was little contagious in comparison with this virus.

 

So, no reason to panic, which makes things worse anyway, but going on like nothing abnormal is happening or can ever happen seems to me naively optimistic. 

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1 hour ago, mtbiking said:

 

According to my wife:

 - Doctors and experts in Germany and Europe in general do not trust at all what China is saying, giving the fact that experts in China have been threatened and arrested for speaking since day 1.

  - the mortality rate seems to hold fast at 2% or more, 20 times higher than the common flue.

 - While SARS had a mortality rate far higher than that, it was little contagious in comparison with this virus.

 

So, no reason to panic, which makes things worse anyway, but going on like nothing abnormal is happening or can ever happen seems to me naively optimistic. 

Doctors in China are probably underreporting the cases of infection of the coronavirus because there are plenty of cases where it is very mild and can appear as if it is a normal flu virus and the medical facilities are overwhelmed.  If this is true than the virus is more likely to be spread (more infectious), but probably less deadly than has been reported.  No one is saying that people outside of China are lying and both the number of people infected and the number of serious cases outside of China are negligible 

 

So what do you propose that people in Germany do outside of panicing or going on like nothing is happening considering that there has not been a single serious case of the virus in Europe? I think it would be rational to consider turning business trips to China into teleconferences or not traveling to the region on vacation.  What else are we supposed to be doing?

 

I would also recommend people go out and get their flu shots, but that is a different topic.

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23 minutes ago, BradinBayern said:

So what do you propose that people in Germany do outside of panicing or going on like nothing is happening considering that there has not been a single serious case of the virus in Europe? I think it would be rational to consider turning business trips to China into teleconferences or not traveling to the region on vacation.  What else are we supposed to be doing?

 

I would also recommend people go out and get their flu shots, but that is a different topic.

 

There's nothing to recommend at the moment besides that I agree with you in avoiding meetings in China. Personally, we always have medicine, food and water stocked up anyway. I'm saying that governments and health care professionals have reasons to be very concerned and it's not an act or giant training exercise going on.

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9 minutes ago, mtbiking said:

I'm saying that governments and health care professionals have reasons to be very concerned and it's not an act or giant training exercise going on.

Cities are on lock down, flights are cancelled, 1,000 bed hospitals are being built overnight.  What more do you want? Who is saying it is a training exercise?   

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4 hours ago, BradinBayern said:

Cities are on lock down, flights are cancelled, 1,000 bed hospitals are being built overnight.  What more do you want? Who is saying it is a training exercise?   

 

No one here, but I've heard it from colleagues at work just a couple days ago.

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636 deaths... huge jump in a single day. 73 people died in one single day. This is far from contained and the peak has not been reached yet.

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Just now, MikeMelga said:

73 people died in one single day.

 

Google tells me China's population is estimated at 1,433,783,686 according to UN data.

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The whistleblower doctor has died.

 

' Li was among a number of supposed "rumormongers" detained in December for spreading news about the virus. He had warned about a potential "SARS-like" virus spreading in Wuhan. Nothing Li said was incorrect, but it came as officials in the city were downplaying the severity of the outbreak and its risk to the public. '

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1 hour ago, optimista said:

 

Google tells me China's population is estimated at 1,433,783,686 according to UN data.

Google for "exponential growth".

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4 hours ago, optimista said:

 

Google tells me China's population is estimated at 1,433,783,686 according to UN data.

They were operating a one child policy since the late 70's until recently so expect a lot of them to be old, so in 20 -30 years time, the population should start to drop.

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35 minutes ago, French bean said:

They were operating a one child policy since the late 70's until recently so expect a lot of them to be old, so in 20 -30 years time, the population should start to drop.

 

 

Or maybe sooner if they can't get this virus under control!

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Meanwhile our love affair with Globalisation and JIT is starting to have an effect on manufacturers. Hyundai/Kia suspending production, Fiat warning of falling stock levels, Japanese manufacturers being worried about their own supply lines and all this means the Chinese economy will suffer. There's a lot to be said for looking at local suppliers.

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3 hours ago, French bean said:

Meanwhile our love affair with Globalisation and JIT is starting to have an effect on manufacturers. Hyundai/Kia suspending production, Fiat warning of falling stock levels, Japanese manufacturers being worried about their own supply lines and all this means the Chinese economy will suffer.

China National Offshore Oil Corporation is already trying to claim force majeur and are not honoring their contracts. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-total/frances-total-rejects-force-majeure-notice-from-chinese-lng-buyer-idUSKBN2001XQ

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On 1/26/2020, 10:19:01, hellfire99 said:

Does anyone here think there is something Joe Public is not being told?  The Chinese have form when it comes to massaging figures. Maybe this is Mother Nature's next large scale cull.  5000 deaths from this would look insignificant compared to road traffic accident deaths but a good 500 million deaths would be a rather large dent in the world population. 

 

Firstly, I don't want to scare anyone, but if you are sick, you've probably got the virus and you're a gonna!

 

Sorry! 

 

Anyways, here's a bit of scaremongering-conspiracy-theory-batshit-crazy-stuff for you!  

 

Has China's biggest online news site revealed 'real' coronavirus death figures?  (Mail)

 

Quote

A set of screen grabs which sparked wild conspiracy theories that China is covering up the death toll of coronavirus could have been digitally altered, web users have claimed.

The latest allegation came after internet users alleged to have spotted much higher statistics of coronavirus victims 'momentarily' on the country's largest online news site Tencent, sparking heated discussions on social media. 

 

While some said the staggering figures - one of them 80 times the official death tally - could have been leaked by journalists in defiance of Beijing's order; others argued the images was likely to have been edited as a smear campaign against China.  

 

Tencent, the second largest company in China, allegedly listed figures for the coronavirus on Saturday showing 154,023 were infected and 24,589 dead - more than ten times and 80 times the official figures respectively. 

 

MailOnline cannot independently verify the authenticity of the screen grabs. Tencent has not issued any statement regarding the accusation. 

 

25,000 dead!

 

400 million peeps under coercive quarantine? 

 

 I wouldn't be surprised if the death toll was true.

 

4 hours ago, French bean said:

Meanwhile our love affair with Globalisation and JIT is starting to have an effect on manufacturers. Hyundai/Kia suspending production, Fiat warning of falling stock levels, Japanese manufacturers being worried about their own supply lines and all this means the Chinese economy will suffer. There's a lot to be said for looking at local suppliers.

 

Chinese financial shock gathers steam as world holds its breath on coronavirus  (The Telegraph) 

 

Quote

A major slowdown in China could trigger recession and defaults in other parts of the world.

 

Capital outflows from China have begun to accelerate and the first concrete trade data from Asia have exposed a drastic disruption of supply chains, raising the risk of a broader global financial shock unless the coronavirus is brought under control within days. 

 

Yep, here comes the next recession. It'll make The Great Depression like a fucking birthday party! 

 

1 hour ago, jeba said:

China National Offshore Oil Corporation is already trying to claim force majeur and are not honoring their contracts. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-total/frances-total-rejects-force-majeure-notice-from-chinese-lng-buyer-idUSKBN2001XQ

 

Everyman for himself, Jeba!  This is just the start! 

 

I would now recommend you go immediately to your doomsday bunkers and see you in 5 years time when it's all over. 

 

God bless! 

 

:lol:

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Though I have always wondered what happens when digging a new underground tunnel leads to opening up an old plauge pit, a few years back there was a report from BBC about the bacteria and viruses that are in the melting permafrost or simply underground but blasted or dug up in our modern times. What is scary is that at least in this article, these bacteria are antibiotic resistant:  http://www.bbc.com/earth/story/20170504-there-are-diseases-hidden-in-ice-and-they-are-waking-up So the more ice that melts, the more of this bacteria come out! 

 

I am wondering if there was a warming trend back during the days of the Black Death. Anyone know? 

 

As for corona virus, I like to look from time to time at the weekly infections in NRW report (must be one for other parts of the country as well. A few weeks back tuburculosis was the most common thing around but this week 'Keutchhusten' is running a close second:  https://www.lzg.nrw.de/inf_schutz/meldewesen/infektionsberichte/wochen-infektionsberichte/index.html

 

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