4,885 posts in this topic

9 hours ago, fraufruit said:

What is a hash tag? I've never seen one.

 

On Twitter it is a way to classify a tweet or a way to find content related to a topic.  It is normally the '#' appended to a word.

 

 

 

 

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10 hours ago, fraufruit said:

What is a hash tag? I've never seen one.

A tag to put on someones hash maybe? 😂

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11 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

The flu has an average fatality rate of 0.065%. The Coronavirus has at the moment 2.1%. So the Coronavirus is 32x more deadly.

 

Nobody is saying that we will all perish, especially because the fatality rate is around 2%.

If you are old and sick and male and live in Hubei Province, then yes, you should be greatly concerned.  If you have visited Wuhan recently or are in direct contact with someone who has then you should be somewhat concerned.  If you are just some average person living in Germany, then no, you do not need to be concerned at this time.  The current fatality rate for Germany or even all of Europe is 0.000%  With a population of over 500 million, that means your chances of dying from the coronavirus are somewhere between squat and squat all.  

 

 

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19 minutes ago, BradinBayern said:

If you are old and sick and male and live in Hubei Province, then yes, you should be greatly concerned.  If you have visited Wuhan recently or are in direct contact with someone who has then you should be somewhat concerned.

I visited Wuhan several months ago, but several of my colleagues have been there in the past 2 months. I have several chinese colleagues, all of them still in China for new year´s celebration. They are returning this week (if they can get a flight!). My neighbor, which I am close to, has a Chinese wife and they are returning from China next week. Some of my colleagues are married with people at Webasto. So of course I must be minimally concerned.

 

EDIT: forgot an important one: my son has more than 40 Chinese colleagues at the international school. Fortunately the school mandated a 2 week quarantine for those returning from China.

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54 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

I visited Wuhan several months ago, but several of my colleagues have been there in the past 2 months. I have several chinese colleagues, all of them still in China for new year´s celebration. They are returning this week (if they can get a flight!). My neighbor, which I am close to, has a Chinese wife and they are returning from China next week. Some of my colleagues are married with people at Webasto. So of course I must be minimally concerned.

Correct.  Assuming that you are not elderly or immuno-supressed, or have other underlying serious illness. of course. In that case you should be somewhat concerned.

 

The guy at Webasto hardly knew he was sick and went to work on Monday.  All of the Webasto employees are doing fine (and are probably bored as hell).   

 

*Edit* with all of your Chinese contacts, do you think you are "some average person living in Germany"?  If not, then why are you quoting my post?  Of course there are special populations are people who need to be more concerned than others, which I also stated in my post.  But for the vast vast majority of people in Europe there is no current reasonable reason for concern at this time.    

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1 hour ago, Wherearewegoingto said:

A tag to put on someones hash maybe? 😂

 

hash tag hash browns? hash tag hash?:D

We need to hash this one out!

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2 hours ago, BradinBayern said:

Correct.  Assuming that you are not elderly or immuno-supressed, or have other underlying serious illness. of course. In that case you should be somewhat concerned.

 

The guy at Webasto hardly knew he was sick and went to work on Monday.  All of the Webasto employees are doing fine (and are probably bored as hell).   

 

*Edit* with all of your Chinese contacts, do you think you are "some average person living in Germany"?  If not, then why are you quoting my post?  Of course there are special populations are people who need to be more concerned than others, which I also stated in my post.  But for the vast vast majority of people in Europe there is no current reasonable reason for concern at this time.    

 

The person who died in the Philippines was 44 years old and there was no mention, in the report, of an underlying illness!

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25 minutes ago, keith2011 said:

 

The person who died in the Philippines was 44 years old and there was no mention, in the report, of an underlying illness!

...and he was from Wuhan.   Also the Philippines are not Germany, so I don't see how this contradicts what I said.

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3 hours ago, BradinBayern said:

Correct.  Assuming that you are not elderly or immuno-supressed, or have other underlying serious illness. of course. In that case you should be somewhat concerned.

Only 80% of the deaths were due to age and only 75% were due to underlying condition. This thing can definitely kill healthy people.

 

3 hours ago, BradinBayern said:

*Edit* with all of your Chinese contacts, do you think you are "some average person living in Germany"?  If not, then why are you quoting my post?  Of course there are special populations are people who need to be more concerned than others, which I also stated in my post.  But for the vast vast majority of people in Europe there is no current reasonable reason for concern at this time.    

The interlink between Germany and China is very high, as R&D from Germany leads to production in China. This is especially true in Bavaria. My wife had also to travel to china a few years ago, and she works on a completely different field of expertise. Even a friend of mine, that works for a luxury furniture company, travels there several times per year.

 

Then you have tourism. 2.85 million chinese tourists in Germany in 2018. And its not high season yet. Let´s see when they start returning from new year celebration and, if not controlled by then, when they start coming in high numbers to visit Germany from April on.

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3 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

Only 80% of the deaths were due to age and only 75% were due to underlying condition. This thing can definitely kill healthy people.

 

The interlink between Germany and China is very high, as R&D from Germany leads to production in China. This is especially true in Bavaria. My wife had also to travel to china a few years ago, and she works on a completely different field of expertise. Even a friend of mine, that works for a luxury furniture company, travels there several times per year.

 

Then you have tourism. 2.85 million chinese tourists in Germany in 2018. And its not high season yet. Let´s see when they start returning from new year celebration and, if not controlled by then, when they start coming in high numbers to visit Germany from April on.

Yes, it CAN kill you.  The chances that it WILL kill you are lower than the chances that you will get hit by a bus on the way home from work.  At least right now and right here.  No one can predict the future, but if SARS and MERS (which were much more deadly, but did not spread as rapidly) are any indication, it will burn itself out soon.  

 

Don't you think that travel patterns to/from China might change a tiny bit compared to past years? (hint, they already have)

 

But as I have already stated, if you want to panic and stock up on peanut butter, etc. it is a free country.  I will chose to live my life as if the overwhelming bulk of the fatalities and infections were very far away and as if the chances of a healthy person living here dying from it extremely rare. Kinda of like what the people who study this stuff for a living are saying.  

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21 minutes ago, BradinBayern said:

But as I have already stated, if you want to panic and stock up on peanut butter, etc. it is a free country.  I will chose to live my life as if the overwhelming bulk of the fatalities and infections were very far away and as if the chances of a healthy person living here dying from it extremely rare. Kinda of like what the people who study this stuff for a living are saying.  

Who is panicking? Just saying not to dismiss it.

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5 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

Who is panicking? Just saying not to dismiss it.

Who is dismissing it? Just saying not to panic.

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18 minutes ago, BradinBayern said:

Who is dismissing it? Just saying not to panic.

 

Seems to me you are doing a Corporal Jones i.e. in a panic telling everyone not to panic.

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16 minutes ago, keith2011 said:

 

Seems to me you are doing a Corporal Jones i.e. in a panic telling everyone not to panic.

Better than being a chinese official, i.e. there is nothing going on...

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Comparing the flu to the Coronavirus has limitations.

 

1.  There a huge asymmetries in information.

 

2.  Many of the deaths attributed to flu are thought to be from pneumonia.

 

3.  Comparing death rates makes no sense if two metrics do not have the same rate of change, i.e. first derivative vs second derivative.  

 

With respect to "panic", outside of any virus, war, pestilence, famine, financial meltdown, why would anyone (especially those with kids) not have an extra large bag of rice (a 15 euro insurance policy) some non perishable protein, and some cash in a safe where passports and important papers are kept?  

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19 minutes ago, balticus said:

 

With respect to "panic", outside of any virus, war, pestilence, famine, financial meltdown, why would anyone (especially those with kids) not have an extra large bag of rice (a 15 euro insurance policy) some non perishable protein, and some cash in a safe where passports and important papers are kept?  

...and a source of fresh water.  But you should have those for a power outage or snow storm anyway.  

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57 minutes ago, BradinBayern said:

...and a source of fresh water.  But you should have those for a power outage or snow storm anyway.  

And dont forget the Sun cream...

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On 03/02/2020, 21:29:41, LostBetweenCountries said:

 

Clearly some people here (not you maybe) think we need to be ready for the apocalypse (please note some sarcasm in this). I am by no means saying this isn't bad but I'm just not one to panic.

 

Good luck to you!

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On 03/02/2020, 19:57:00, BradinBayern said:

Please tell us all about your "survival skills".  Let me go and get some popcorn first...

Shut up!

On 03/02/2020, 21:29:41, LostBetweenCountries said:

 

Clearly some people here (not you maybe) think we need to be ready for the apocalypse (please note some sarcasm in this). I am by no means saying this isn't bad but I'm just not one to panic.

 

Good luck to you!

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