4,989 posts in this topic

2 hours ago, BradinBayern said:

Yes, basic math.  8,200 > 213

Think in relative terms...

Influenza (seasonal flu) has a fatality rate <0.1%.

Coronavirus numbers are still not clear enough, but it points to a fatality rate of 2%.

It is also highly contagious, so if it is not well contained and it reaches the same number of people as a common flu, you will have millions of deaths.

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1 hour ago, MikeMelga said:

Think in relative terms...

Influenza (seasonal flu) has a fatality rate <0.1%.

Coronavirus numbers are still not clear enough, but it points to a fatality rate of 2%.

It is also highly contagious, so if it is not well contained and it reaches the same number of people as a common flu, you will have millions of deaths.

Both the rate of contagiousness and the mortality rate have changed considerably.  The WHO was reporting an RO (contagiousness) of 1.4 to 2.5 and a mortality rate of 3% (but then also admits this is probably wrong).  For the flu, the RO is 1.3 

https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/368/bmj.m308.full.pdf  

 

If you exclude the province in China where the virus originated, the mortality rate is 0.3% In the city of Wuhan it is almost 6%  https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

I wouldn't say that anyone can say for sure right now.   The infection rate is mostly likely heavily underreported (The Webasto employee hardly knew he was sick) yet the hospitalization and fatalities are going to be more accurate, therefore giving a skewed view of the mortality rate.    https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/30/limited-data-may-skew-assumptions-severity-coronavirus-outbreak/

 

Sure, if there are 15 million infections like there are with influenza, you might have more than the 290,000 to 650,000 fatalites worldwide than one has with influenza, but there is no indication right now that this will be the case.  If you have a <1% rate with the flu and 15 million infections then you are going to have a higher death toll than if you have say 100,000 with a 2% mortality rate. 

All of the victims of this disease have been Chinese and almost all of them have been elderly with other underlying illness and/or diseases.  Most of the victims where from Hubei Province. Most were also male, which is interesting.  As far as I know no one has gotten seriously ill or died outside of China.   Experts expect the outbreak to peak in a week or so.  

 

All of the doctors and experts (outside of China) are saying "don't panic" but if you wish to panic, then go right ahead.  

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Two coronavirus cases confirmed in UK

 

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Two people from the same family have tested positive for coronavirus in the UK, the chief medical officer for England has announced.

 

It is understood the patients were staying in a hotel in Yorkshire, before being taken overnight to a specialist centre in Newcastle.

 

At least 213 people in China have died from the virus, with almost 10,000 cases nationally.

 

There have been 98 cases in another 18 countries.

 

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On 1/30/2020, 7:21:43, MikeMelga said:

Please don´t downplay it, it is dangerous. It is a bad comparison on many levels:

 

The flu is downplayed every day. People die, and nobody bats an eye.

 

Yes, we don't really know enough about this virus yet. Will I disinfect my space on my flight in 3 weeks (as I always do)? Certainly. Also as usual disinfect hands, try to not touch my face etc? Of course. Is there much else I can do? Nope, I have to fly.

 

But I am not going to assume that we will all perish. And if we do... Then I'm not gonna be able to care about it. 

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1 hour ago, LostBetweenCountries said:

 

Prepare? How exactly would one do that? 

We are up to 8 infected same as The sates FYI----  https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Be safe out there prepare. Are you serious?

Well as you can see China is in lockdown, Are you ready to stay in your home for 15 days without going out at all, just in case?

 

1,-Do you have gloves, masks, safety goggles to protect your eyes, extra food, pasta, cereal, peanut butter, water, toilet paper, propane gas, alcohol, Clorox etc...?

 

This is not just for the Coronavirus but for any emergency that might arrive.

That is what I mean to prepare, you go ask the hospitals in China if they need any masks?

 

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12 minutes ago, sipapito said:

We are up to 8 infected same as The sates FYI----  https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Be safe out there prepare. Are you serious?

Well as you can see China is in lockdown, Are you ready to stay in your home for 15 days without going out at all, just in case?

 

1,-Do you have gloves, masks, safety goggles to protect your eyes, extra food, pasta, cereal, peanut butter, water, toilet paper, propane gas, alcohol, Clorox etc...?

 

This is not just for the Coronavirus but for any emergency that might arrive.

That is what I mean to prepare, you go ask the hospitals in China if they need any masks?

 

The surgical masks don't protect you from the coronavirus.     https://www.livescience.com/face-mask-new-coronavirus.html

 

Out of 362 deaths, 350 were in Hubei Province in China.  There have been 12 deaths outside of Hubei and 1 outside of China.  Lets keep it in perspective.  

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34 minutes ago, BradinBayern said:

The surgical masks don't protect you from the coronavirus.     https://www.livescience.com/face-mask-new-coronavirus.html

 

Out of 362 deaths, 350 were in Hubei Province in China.  There have been 12 deaths outside of Hubei and 1 outside of China.  Let's keep it in perspective.  

 Do you trust the Chinese government to tell you the truth as to how many have died so far?

 Thank God I got the N95 for all my family.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, sipapito said:

1,-Do you have gloves, masks, safety goggles to protect your eyes, extra food, pasta, cereal, peanut butter, water, toilet paper, propane gas, alcohol, Clorox etc...?

 

This is not just for the Coronavirus but for any emergency that might arrive.

 

 

Lol @ peanut butter ... Ok, so almost hurrican supplies? No I do not. I'm 3 weeks away from an international move so I am not stockpiling for zombie apocalypse at this time. I get being afraid but did you do all this for SARS, H1N1 etc? Do you have a bunker? Because you may need one just in case. 

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1 hour ago, LostBetweenCountries said:

 

Lol @ peanut butter ... Ok, so almost hurrican supplies? No I do not. I'm 3 weeks away from an international move so I am not stockpiling for zombie apocalypse at this time. I get being afraid but did you do all this for SARS, H1N1 etc? Do you have a bunker? Because you may need one just in case. 

^ Clearly you never being in an emergency situation, I wouöd like to see your survival skills but I digress have a nice trip. Oh, I forgot don't forget to disinfect the armrest.

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37 minutes ago, sipapito said:

^ Clearly you never being in an emergency situation, I wouöd like to see your survival skills but I digress have a nice trip. Oh, I forgot don't forget to disinfect the armrest.

Please tell us all about your "survival skills".  Let me go and get some popcorn first...

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7 hours ago, LostBetweenCountries said:

 

The flu is downplayed every day. People die, and nobody bats an eye.

The flu has an average fatality rate of 0.065%. The Coronavirus has at the moment 2.1%. So the Coronavirus is 32x more deadly.

 

7 hours ago, LostBetweenCountries said:

But I am not going to assume that we will all perish. And if we do... Then I'm not gonna be able to care about it. 

Nobody is saying that we will all perish, especially because the fatality rate is around 2%.

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2 hours ago, sipapito said:

^ Clearly you never being in an emergency situation, I wouöd like to see your survival skills but I digress have a nice trip. Oh, I forgot don't forget to disinfect the armrest.

 

I have been disinfecting my arm rest, tray table and tv screen (and remote) for years. Don't you worry about me. Been through my share of hurricanes and have somehow lived through them all. 

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20 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

Nobody is saying that we will all perish, especially because the fatality rate is around 2%.

 

Clearly some people here (not you maybe) think we need to be ready for the apocalypse (please note some sarcasm in this). I am by no means saying this isn't bad but I'm just not one to panic.

 

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Meanwhile, the hashtags #IamNotAVirus and #JeNeSuisPasUnVirus are spreading around rapidly. It's about Asians who complain about being discriminated, because of the Corona-virus, e.g. an Asian with a mouth mask was being denied entrance in a German restaurant.

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