7,233 posts in this topic

2 hours ago, balticus said:

 

Incredible how people trot out the killer mutations and long COVID scare mongering without providing hard data, comorbidities and age strata as if the risks are not quantifiable.

 

Use Science.   🤡

Sorry but it`s sick bastards like you who think if people don`t die then it doesn`t matter and shows the virus isn`t really a problem.

2 hours ago, balticus said:

Seasonal flu is way down because people are following guidelines.

 

Germany has experienced a worse than expected second wave of COVID because people have ignored guidelines.   

Yer but lockdowns and masks don`t work according to your countless posts.

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12 hours ago, Keleth said:

Sorry but it`s sick bastards like you who think if people don`t die then it doesn`t matter and shows the virus isn`t really a problem.

 

You continually misrepresent my positions.   Risk of death or health problems from COVID need to be balanced against other health risks.     It is necessary to have the cognitive capability to focus on more than one thing.   

 

12 hours ago, Keleth said:

Yer but lockdowns and masks don`t work according to your countless posts.

 

According to these guys from the Stanford Medical School.

 

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/eci.13484

 

Listen to Science.   

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37 minutes ago, El Jeffo said:

"Open the slopes," they said. "No one gets infected outside," they said.

I'm pretty sure infections happened inside... with a few drinks...

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Question: are N95 masks acceptable or do I really need to get FFP2/FFP3? AFAIK, N95 is the same as FFP2 (US equivalent), but if stopped by police, are they only looking for the FFP2 inscription?

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13 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

Question: are N95 masks acceptable or do I really need to get FFP2/FFP3? AFAIK, N95 is the same as FFP2 (US equivalent), but if stopped by police, are they only looking for the FFP2 inscription?

 

The ones my wife is supplied with by the clinic where she works just have KN95 stamped on them.

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From next Monday, January 18, 2021, it will be mandatory in Bavaria to wear FFP2 masks on public transport and in retail outlets. In the first week, however, there will be a "goodwill week" during which no penalties will be imposed for violations. The requirement to wear FFP2 masks applies to all people aged 15 and over, but children aged over six must still wear a regular "community mask" on public transport as well as in retail outlets. In addition to FFP2 masks, masks with an equivalent standard of protection (such as N95 or KN95) are also permitted. Furthermore, a total of 2.5 million FFP2 masks will be distributed free of charge to people in need, presumably through the cities and districts from the end of next week. Moreover, vouchers for discounted FFP2 masks will be sent by the health insurance companies to people over the age of 60 as well as chronically ill people.

 

https://www.br.de/nachrichten/deutschland-welt/coronavirus-in-bavaria-assistance-in-english,RtO8eS2

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New Interview with Prof. Drosten. The translation isn't always perfect but pretty good. The original German version is behind a paywall (by the way, one or two top level interviews get published in English and without a paywall every week).

 

https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/interview-with-virologist-christian-drosten-i-am-quite-apprehensive-about-what-might-otherwise-happen-in-spring-and-summer-a-f22c0495-5257-426e-bddc-c6082d6434d5

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Since today, there is a curfew in the Netherlands from 9 pm until 4:30 am. A sensitive topic for long, because it reminds of WWII. You can walk the dog, however.

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I have to say, I had a whiff of that yesterday when I broke our curfew in the dark, dressed in black and on foot - on a mission that could not wait till morning. Several cars (not gendarmerie) sped past me at break-neck speed (and it's only a village :rolleyes:) and I ducked behind a hedge and two walls with an increased heart rate... very weird feeling.

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Looks like Jeba is full of Jever...

 

when will you get it through that increadably thick skull of yours that this is an "english" forum.?

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Yes.. but RKI also reportedly have released data that was upto 3 weeks old....   

 

I reckon we should stay at home...   it may just reduce numbers... 

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3 minutes ago, SpiderPig said:

 

 

 

I reckon we should stay at home...   it may just reduce numbers... 

 

Amen to that 

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7 hours ago, balticus said:

 

I won't have time to listen to a 65 minute interview.   

 

Would you care to summarize the arguments?

 

Thanks.

 

I´ll copypaste parts of the German transcript as the deepl-translation is weird and I´m too lazy to summarize myself:

Quote

Auf der Suche nach einer guten Referenz haben Ioannidis und seine Leute Folgendes gesagt: Okay,nehmen wir mal als Referenz für schwache bzw. leichte Maßnahmen Südkorea und Schweden. Das waren die beiden Länder, wo man wenig gemacht hat, weil man dort in einer ganz guten Lage war. Und das vergleichen wir mit den härteren Maßnahmen in zehn anderen Ländern,z.B.Deutschland.Und wenn man von dem Effekt, der durch die harten Maßnahmen eingetreten ist, mathematisch abzieht, was wahrscheinlich durch die leichten Maßnahme schon erreicht worden wäre,dann ist diese Differenz, dieses kleine Plus, was man erzielt durch die härteren Maßnahmen,statistisch nicht mehr signifikant. Man sieht zwar schon

ein Plus. In Frankreichmachenz.B. die zusätzlichen Maßnahmen im Vergleich zu Schweden ungefähr siebenProzent Verbesserung bei den Fallzahlen. Verglichen mit Südkoreawaren essogar 13 Prozent. Aber das sindkeine signifikanten Ergebnisse. Das heißt,die Spanne, die Streuung der Statistik,ist so breit, dass man nicht sagen kann, die Zahlen belegendas. Oder andersherum gesagt: Es ist nicht so hart belegbar, was in einer Bevölkerung, die sich schon auf die Pandemie eingestellt hat und schon von sich aus Dinge tut, um Infektionen zu verhindern, wasdort die zusätzliche Eingriffe des Staates bringen. Deshalb muss man schon die Frage stellenund das haben wirim Podcast auchgelegentlich gemacht:Ist es z.B.sinnvoll, ein Maßnahmenpaketso fortzuführen? Wenn wir unsan die erste Welle erinnern, war esja auch so. Dashat die Frau Priesemannin ihrer ersten Arbeitgezeigt:Da waren die Effekte eingetreten, bevor der Lockdown verhängt wurde. Und so ähnlich ist das im Grunde genommen beiJohn Ioannidisauch. In drei Fällen gab es sogar einen paradoxen Effekt. Das fand ichinteressant. Z.B.ist es (in dieser Statistik zumindest)so, dass die Ausgangssperre in Deutschlandnicht dazu geführt hat, dass es weniger Fälle gab. Rein statistisch gesehen hatte sie sogar einen negativen Effekt. Die Fallzahlen haben sich danacherhöht. Wobei wir nicht wissen,ob das kausal ist. Ähnlich war es in Italien. Da hat eine Aufforderung zum sozialenDistanzieren und zuGeschäftsschließungen auch einen negativen Effekt gehabt. So etwas Ähnliches gibt es auch in Spanien. Was bedeutet das nun? Falls das überhauptträgt das sind ja alles immer nur Statistiken, so ein bisschen der Blick in die Glaskugel ,könnte ich mir vorstellen, dass Menschen,wenn manschon fünf Maßnahmen hatte unddie sechste und siebte beschließt, vom Willen zum Mitmachen herlangsam abspringen und man dadurchplötzlich diese Negativ-Effekte sieht. Camillo Schumann:Würden Sie diese Studie als anwendbar bewerten? Alexander Kekulé:Es ist ein Hinweis darauf, dassdie alte Regel gilt: Wenn du erst mal eine Maßnahme implementiert hast, diehalbwegs angenommen wird und durchgegriffen hat, hat das Gleichenochmal nur mit einem stärkeren Bremspedal meistens einen viel schwächeren Effekt. Die nachgelagerten, schärferen Maßnahmen sind nicht mehr so wirksam wie die erste Maßnahme. Ich glaube, das kann man daraus schließen.

 

 

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51 minutes ago, jeba said:

 

I´ll copypaste parts of the German transcript as the deepl-translation is weird and I´m too lazy to summarize myself:

 

 

He argues by conjecture and what he can imagine and not with data to back it up.    

 

He mentions the reduced effect of a measure, e.g. lockdowns if there are already several measures in place, some sort of diminishing returns for each additional measure.   There is enough data to model it more precisely rather than simply dismiss the thesis.    Basic regression analysis done at a very granular level could shed some light on this.   The lack of statistical support for the various policies is a red flag, in my opinion.   

https://twitter.com/ianmSC/status/1349114299025813504?s=20https://twitter.com/ianmSC/status/1349114299025813504?s=20

 

 

 

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