6,822 posts in this topic

If we are looking for something that could pose a serious pandemic threat, I'd suggest looking at some thing that could be transmitted by mosquitos.

Take plague, mix it with covid, the flu and make it transmittable via mosquito bite and airborn.

 

Maybe throw in people turning in to some kind of infected zombie type thing for the fun of it. 

 

How zombie safe is your house/flat??

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14 minutes ago, cb6dba said:

How zombie safe is your house/flat??

 

I just throw the switch and the innocuous looking wall box (used to charge the car)

gets a new connection - and pulses 100A through the metal fence around the grounds. 

 

Fried zombie anyone ?

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3 hours ago, Space Cowboy said:

An outbreak to the level of COVID-19 would be so unlikely that it borders on the impossible. 

Yep I used it as an example of Balticus`only concern being about deaths.

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2 hours ago, HH_Sailor said:

 

I just throw the switch and the innocuous looking wall box (used to charge the car)

gets a new connection - and pulses 100A through the metal fence around the grounds. 

 

Fried zombie anyone ?

By the time you have to turn that fence on, either there is no electricity or you get to watch your fuel supply (for the generators) drain with every hour...  

 

It's kind of like watching your phone battery die, but at end, you do ...

 

 

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5 hours ago, keith2011 said:

You know full well that the number of cases in recorded in March/April has no relationship to the recent figures due to the massive rise in testing since then.

 

Are you suggesting that the number of cases in March / April were understated?   By how much?   Do you believe that the fatality rate has stayed constant, dropped off, or because of false positives in the second wave, increased?

 

You have made the argument that deaths need 22-32 days to prove that the increase in cases is indeed catastrophic.   Need another two weeks?  ;) 

Quote

Unless I am mistaken you have used the same argument in the past to downplay the percentage death rate.

 

Yes i have.   😇

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@balticus You must have seen that at the time, in spring, everybody - as in health authorities, experts in the field et cetera, were saying that the infection numbers were much higher than what was recorded. How could they not be? Trust the scientists.

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5 hours ago, Jonny said:

Are they asymptomatic - or are the tests bringing back false positives ? Is there any truth to this story which would seem like a big deal but hasn't been spoken about much.

Each lab + test combination have a wide range of accuracy. In general false positives are rare, even on the fast tests. False negatives are very common.

Pool testing is done with the slow but accurate tests. False positives are rare.

 

5 hours ago, Jonny said:

What I understand from the study is that it is a purely statistical study, without real data. Lots of assumption, no real confirmation so far. "Might be" is clearly used in conclusions.

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1 hour ago, Elljay said:

@balticus You must have seen that at the time, in spring, everybody - as in health authorities, experts in the field et cetera, were saying that the infection numbers were much higher than what was recorded. 

 

It was my expectation as well given the shortage of tests, but I am looking to get Keith's perspective here to understand his assumptions.

 

By the way, I should trust empirically established results but not necessarily people.  

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10 hours ago, balticus said:

Are you suggesting that the number of cases in March / April were understated?   By how much?

 

8 hours ago, balticus said:

It was my expectation as well given the shortage of tests, but I am looking to get Keith's perspective here to understand his assumptions.

 

We will never know how many cases there were of mild symptoms because they were not tested or reported back then, most of the testing was done when those suffering severe symptoms arrived at hospital. As a consequence the time between the detected infection rate and any corresponding death rate was much shorter. What we have seen so far with the 2nd wave here in Germany is a much larger number of new infections compared to the 1st wave, as expected, followed more recently by increasing hospital admissions  and now, so far, a comparable number of deaths. It remains to be seen whether the number of deaths this time is less or more than the ca. 9k for the first wave, but given the time of year and the number of deaths from October ca. 6k, it is not looking good.:(

 

 

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5 hours ago, keith2011 said:

We will never know how many cases there were of mild symptoms because they were not tested or reported back then, most of the testing was done when those suffering severe symptoms arrived at hospital. As a consequence the time between the detected infection rate and any corresponding death rate was much shorter.

 

I agree with these two points. 

5 hours ago, keith2011 said:

What we have seen so far with the 2nd wave here in Germany is a much larger number of new infections compared to the 1st wave,

 

Testing frequency and availability is completely different now compared to March and April.

 

My guess is that we have a larger number of infections confirmed by testing, but without a consistent method, we are comparing warm versus soft.  

 

Given that testing frequency and availability is not consistent from country to country, it would make sense to focus on fatalities even though methodology for counting fatalities also lack uniformity.    In addition, there may be financial incentives for declaring a patient a COVID patient or putting them on a ventilator.     It might be that the best measure would be excess deaths, but that is corrupted by deaths from the higher incidence of suicide, substance abuse, and failure to get regular checkups and treatment for non-COVID health issues.  

 

5 hours ago, keith2011 said:

as expected, followed more recently by increasing hospital admissions  and now, so far, a comparable number of deaths. It remains to be seen whether the number of deaths this time is less or more than the ca. 9k for the first wave, but given the time of year and the number of deaths from October ca. 6k, it is not looking good.:(

 

Look at the charts for other European countries and it is not necessarily the case.   Take Belgium, Spain, the Netherlands, the UK and Italy (just barely) for examples.  

 

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8 hours ago, keith2011 said:

 

 

We will never know how many cases there were of mild symptoms because they were not tested or reported back then, most of the testing was done when those suffering severe symptoms arrived at hospital. As a consequence the time between the detected infection rate and any corresponding death rate was much shorter. What we have seen so far with the 2nd wave here in Germany is a much larger number of new infections compared to the 1st wave, as expected, followed more recently by increasing hospital admissions  and now, so far, a comparable number of deaths. It remains to be seen whether the number of deaths this time is less or more than the ca. 9k for the first wave, but given the time of year and the number of deaths from October ca. 6k, it is not looking good.:(

 

 

 

Yes, but whatabout all the people who had it and weren't discovered, and whatabout all the people who didn't have it but crapped their pants because they were so worried about it, and whatabout all the people who died without covid, and whatabout the discount on apples at Aldi this week, and whatabout lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Aenean sodales mi nec hendrerit vehicula. Cras dolor purus, malesuada et eros nec, tincidunt dapibus magna. Phasellus vel nunc eu arcu vulputate???

 

You don't have all the answers after all, do you?

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2 hours ago, balticus said:

Testing frequency and availability is completely different now compared to March and April.

 

I was well aware of that which is why I said quote "as expected" but you chose to leave that out when you quoted.:mellow:

 

2 hours ago, balticus said:

Look at the charts for other European countries and it is not necessarily the case.   Take Belgium, Spain, the Netherlands, the UK and Italy (just barely) for examples.  

 

Not sure what you mean there, looking at those countries and France individually the number of deaths since mid August (when the death rate was flat for all) is between 50-60% of the total of the first wave (i.e deaths up to mid August).  The only exception is the UK which currently is about 35% using the same measure. In all cases though the death rate is still rising rapidly so I doubt we will see a clear picture till it levels off.

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13 minutes ago, El Jeffo said:

 

Yes, but whatabout all the people who had it and weren't discovered, and whatabout all the people who didn't have it but crapped their pants because they were so worried about it, and whatabout all the people who died without covid, and whatabout the discount on apples at Aldi this week, and whatabout lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Aenean sodales mi nec hendrerit vehicula. Cras dolor purus, malesuada et eros nec, tincidunt dapibus magna. Phasellus vel nunc eu arcu vulputate???

 

You don't have all the answers after all, do you?

 

They say there is no such thing as a dumb question but in this case I'm not to sure.

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23 minutes ago, El Jeffo said:

and whatabout lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Aenean sodales mi nec hendrerit vehicula. Cras dolor purus, malesuada et eros nec, tincidunt dapibus magna. Phasellus vel nunc eu arcu vulputate???

 

EIIGY

POCR

OFF

 

😇

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39 minutes ago, AlexTr said:

126536657_10218786749926359_5824384632588122837_n.jpg

Imagine if the 30% of the German Volks who didn't approve of Adolf Hitler in 1936 would have caved into the mob and gotten with the pogrom a bit earlier.   Intolerance of a diversity of opinions is the bellwether of authoritarianism.

🗣

 

Try to be less authoritarian.  🤡

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Imagine if a whole bunch of people just got fed up with the tyranny of red lights and just wandered across the intersection because nobody's going to tell them what to do

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