6,640 posts in this topic

34 minutes ago, SpiderPig said:

Does anyone think it may help if people stayed at home?

Of course. But the majority of people don't understand, think they are not affected and will only do that if forced to by the authorities. 

I think it's obvious that the second wave is worse than the first because of this. The only way to stop the ongoing spread is to close everything down again, including hotels, takeaways, all non-essential shops and border crossings. Light or half-hearted lockdowns ensure more cases and more deaths. 

Why the heck are all of Germany's borders open and with no checks? 

Even in a hard lockdown you stil have people out and about for 'essentials' - which apparently includes cigarettes and alcohol for some reason. 

 

Soon many countries are going to be opening back up again for the busiest time of the year in the run up to Christmas and New Year celebrations, so packed shops, supermarkets and town centres are all to be expected. 

Should we pencil in a third lockdown into our diaries now? As far as I can see opening everything up again is only going to increase the spread again. And so it goes on all winter like this presumably, well into next year. 

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I don´t fully agree. I think we can avoid a full lockdown again, but we need to change the current rules, namely:

  • something must be done about schools. Perhaps reduce class sizes to half, as in spring
  • same for workplaces
  • poll testing in companies and schools
  • better definition of what is a suitable mask. I still see many with scarfs, face shields or unsuitable masks.
  • keep restaurants open as take aways, I see no issue there
  • keep shops open but reduce maximum number of customers at the same time

And most important: when relaxing rules, enforce them again when numbers rise, but much earlier than in October. Germany was one of the fastest reacting countries, but it was still 2-3 weeks too late. Countries like Portugal were 6-8 weeks too late and then got out of control. Act soon, act strong, so you can relax sooner.

 

A third lockdown can only be avoided by the vaccine. Perhaps Germany can have most of the critical population vaccinated by end of January and reduce fatalities. I think it will be then a political decision, as soon as fatalities remain low, they will relax rules, even if normal people suffer serious long term consequences.

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Schools look dreadful, but are they spreading it around much? We have had cases, but they have been quickly contained and not spread. That's a smallish school of 800 or so. I haven't read anything in the news suggesting a meat factory type situation having started to occur in schools.

 

The A/B weeks were brilliant (3 weeks, end Oct/beginning Nov.) but over for us now - the local rule to trigger that changed from a Kreis Inzidenzwert of more than 100/100 000 to that figure plus at least one known case in the school itself. Not great. 

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3 hours ago, kiplette said:

Schools look dreadful, but are they spreading it around much? We have had cases, but they have been quickly contained and not spread. That's a smallish school of 800 or so. I haven't read anything in the news suggesting a meat factory type situation having started to occur in schools.

Problem is that kids are mostly asymptomatic, so you don't get meat factory situations. My son's school is pool testing and they already found some cases where kid was asymptomatic but had the virus.

In my hometown there was an outbreak in the end of the summer. Several adults showed up sick within 1 week and the link was that all kids were in the same class. They had zero after school contact.

But look at it. In April we controlled this in 3 weeks. What was the major difference? Schools were closed!

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32 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

Problem is that kids are mostly asymptomatic, so you don't get meat factory situations. My son's school is pool testing and they already found some cases where kid was asymptomatic but had the virus.

In my hometown there was an outbreak in the end of the summer. Several adults showed up sick within 1 week and the link was that all kids were in the same class. They had zero after school contact.

But look at it. In April we controlled this in 3 weeks. What was the major difference? Schools were closed!


that’s far from being the only major difference: there are loads more people moving around than before. Like in April I need to drive to work sometimes. Before I was constantly breaking my driving records because the streets and highway were noticeably emptier; between October and November I didn’t notice any difference. Anedoctal, I know, but corroborated by mobile phone traffic data:
 

https://www.google.de/amp/s/amp.zdf.de/nachrichten/panorama/corona-mobilitaet-shutdown-102.html

 

the root cause of all those people driving around is not schools being opened, parents tend to not chauffeur their kids around in Germany and even if they did  they did and just return home afterward it’d be easy to see the pattern in the data. Adding to that, from what I see at the office and elsewhere, children (are taught and forced to) take the COVID prevention measures a  lot more seriously than too many adults do. And don’t get me started on teenagers.

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If there is indeed a 22-32 day lag between cases and corresponding deaths, we should see an increase in deaths for the next 3 weeks in Sweden.   If we don't, then we can probably ignore the predictions of doom which have been proffered.   😇

 

 

 

 

Screenshot 2020-11-26 at 06.49.19.png

Screenshot 2020-11-26 at 06.49.02.png

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17 hours ago, MadAxeMurderer said:

It might be overreacting to try and make all schools pandemic transmission safe.

Sort of like mandating tsunami resistance for all buildings. Including Switzerland.

 

Or closing down all nuclear power stations in Germany because of a tsunami in Japan...

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Insanity.   

 

Students who attend Thanksgiving gatherings outside their household, e.g. with grandparents, will be forced to quarantine for 14 days.  

 

https://www.wcax.com/2020/11/24/vermont-schools-will-ask-students-if-they-celebrated-at-home/

 

Vermont has 64 deaths since March and it currently has no massive increase in fatalities.  0 per day, 1 per day, etc.   

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/vermont/

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36 minutes ago, balticus said:

If there is indeed a 22-32 day lag between cases and corresponding deaths, we should see an increase in deaths for the next 3 weeks in Sweden.   If we don't, then we can probably ignore the predictions of doom which have been proffered.   😇

 

Some weeks ago you showed the same graphs and rolled out the same argument for Germany, guess what: Balti was wrong again! 🤣

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8 minutes ago, keith2011 said:

 

Some weeks ago you showed the same graphs and rolled out the same argument for Germany, guess what: Balti was wrong again! 🤣

 

Germany has 400-500%  the number of cases from March/April and around 20-25% more deaths.  

 

Keep it real.   😇

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8 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

What was the major difference? Schools were closed!

And lots of other stuff was closed, whilst more people were doing home office. Many employers demanded full presence again in the office again after the first lockdown ended.

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22 minutes ago, balticus said:

 

Germany has 400-500%  the number of cases from March/April and around 20-25% more deaths.  

 

Keep it real.   😇

That`s fine then if only 20-25% more people are dying.

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46 minutes ago, balticus said:

 

Germany has 400-500%  the number of cases from March/April and around 20-25% more deaths.  

 

Keep it real.   😇

You are the one who needs to keep it real, you know full well that the number of cases in recorded in March/April has no relationship to the recent figures due to the massive rise in testing since then. Unless I am mistaken you have used the same argument in the past to downplay the percentage death rate.

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1 minute ago, keith2011 said:

You are the one who needs to keep it real, you know full well that the number of cases in recorded in March/April has no relationship to the recent figures due to the massive rise in testing since then.

Not just testing but also treatment of it.

You know that outbreaks of the black death don`t kill as many people either nowadays so I guess in Balticus` eyes that means if we had a breakout we should just ignore it and carry on as normal.

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39 minutes ago, Keleth said:

Not just testing but also treatment of it.

You know that outbreaks of the black death don`t kill as many people either nowadays so I guess in Balticus` eyes that means if we had a breakout we should just ignore it and carry on as normal.

 

 

Well, in that particular case, yeah - essentially ignore it and carry on as usual.  "Black Death" (Bubonic/Pneumonic Plague) is bacterial, and curable with antibiotics.

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2 minutes ago, Space Cowboy said:

 

 

Well, in that particular case, yeah - essentially ignore it and carry on as usual.  "Black Death" (Bubonic/Pneumonic Plague) is bacterial, and curable with antibiotics.

But can you imagine the hit hospitals,doctors and pharma firms would have trying to cope with it if we had an outbreak on the level of Covid 19 ?

 

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10 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

Problem is that kids are mostly asymptomatic, so you don't get meat factory situations. My son's school is pool testing and they already found some cases where kid was asymptomatic but had the virus.

Are they asymptomatic - or are the tests bringing back false positives ? Is there any truth to this story which would seem like a big deal but hasn't been spoken about much.

 

https://www.portugalresident.com/judges-in-portugal-highlight-more-than-debatable-reliability-of-covid-tests/

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12 minutes ago, Keleth said:

But can you imagine the hit hospitals,doctors and pharma firms would have trying to cope with it if we had an outbreak on the level of Covid 19 ?

 

 

An outbreak to the level of COVID-19 would be so unlikely that it borders on the impossible.  Bubonic Plague is spread by the fleas of infected rats.  The more infectious Pneumonic form comes only after a sufficient level of Bubonic Plague cases have been reached in a human population.

 

Plague spread rapidly in the past due to lack of sanitary environments and woefully insufficient pest control.  The conditions necessary for a large outbreak of Bubonic Plague do not exist in the modern world.  Plus, Bubonic Plague infection is easily diagnosed.  Small outbreaks have happened around the world in modern times, and continue to happen, but they are rapidly identified and treated.

 

It would take a catastrophic breakdown of civilization in the modern developed world for Bubonic Plague to come back as a serious pandemic threat.

 

 

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