6,112 posts in this topic

1 hour ago, fraufruit said:

Does that mean they are going to school for half days? What does that help? 

 

It's known as `scenario B' round here - week on/week off - my kids are A week, and after their week in school, B kids go in, and mine stay off for a week. It halves the numbers in the building, and using the buses. The classes are a great size, and the kids have a much better experience. We've been in it for 3 weeks, and now we are going back to normal, which is annoying, since numbers are still not good round us, and the kids do much better with scenario B.

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9 hours ago, fraufruit said:

Does that mean they are going to school for half days? What does that help? 

Less potential mixing. Can split classes and have more space 

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am not quite sure that the ministers suggestion of using cinemas as potential classroom spaces was particularly carefully thought through though, logistics-wise #facepalm

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On 17/11/2020, 13:01:56, bramble said:

I've noticed that quite a few times the courts have overturned some of the restiriction orders. Someone files a suit with respect to the Grundrechte (basic rights) and schwuppdiwupp the measures are obselete. There are going to be many more law suits.  They can't even ban these stupid anti-corona demonstrations due to the basic right to demonstrate. I pity the policemen having to wade in there every time. 

When coronavirus makes one of the judge's relatives obsolete will they still grant these overturns so quickly I wonder? 

Further, can the surviving relatives of someone who dies from coronavirus sue that court for having lifted the restrictions and thus cause further spreading in their area? 

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43 minutes ago, balticus said:

So should we wait another 22 - 32 days?  😇

 

 

 

 

Screenshot 2020-11-23 at 05.14.46.png

Screenshot 2020-11-23 at 05.14.26.png

What are you trying to tell us? That deaths precede infections or that they didn´t do enough testing?

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1 hour ago, jeba said:

What are you trying to tell us? That deaths precede infections or that they didn´t do enough testing?

 

A Researcher named Trevor Bedford from a very reputable cancer research center in Seattle posted some estimates on Twitter that there is on average a 22 lag between increases in case counts and increases in deaths.    MikeMelga (M2 going forward) claims that Sweden's statistics may be delayed by another 10 days.    22 + 10 == 32.  

 

FWIW, i have no reason to think he has corrupted these statistics.   On the other hand, i don't agree with almost all of his forecasts.   

 

 

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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55037760 

Merkel 'worried' about vaccines for poorer countries 

It will take years to get around to vaccinating many people in poorer nations, so the virus will continue to spread when people travel to or through or go on holiday in these countries and bring it back in with them - unless quarantine becomes a permanent fixture of holidays now.

And other people, including migrants, refugees etc. will still be unvaccinated and bring the virus in if the borders of the richer vaccinated nations stay open. :rolleyes: 

 

 

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Some more good news on the vaccine front this morning. The Oxford/Astra Zeneca trial shows an average 70% protection rate but interestingly this increased to approximately 90% when the first dose was smaller and the second dose larger, but they can't yet explain why this could be.

 

This vaccine has a huge advantage over the previously announced triumphs by Pfizer/Biontech and Moderna insofar as it can be kept stable at normal fridge temperatures. This clearly has positive implications especially in the developing world.

 

I continue to be in awe of these scientists that took a virus unknown to humanity and developed at least 3 vaccines to combat it in less than a year.

 

It would really make you wonder though could we find cures and vaccines for other diseases in a year if the will was there? Imagine we spent no money on arms for 5 years and diverted the spending to medical research. 

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1 minute ago, murphaph said:

I continue to be in awe of these scientists that took a virus unknown to humanity and developed at least 3 vaccines to combat it in less than a year.

No surprise here, I´ve been saying for many months that this virus would be easily controlled because the disease life cycle is very short. From infection to death in a few weeks. AIDS takes 9 years on average. This means you can test a new treatment or vaccine in a few months instead of decades.

 

1 minute ago, murphaph said:

It would really make you wonder though could we find cures and vaccines for other diseases in a year if the will was there? Imagine we spent no money on arms for 5 years and diverted the spending to medical research.

Although mRNA research will be boosted significantly with this situation, in general the problem with other diseases is the long life cycle. For example cancer effectiveness testing is measured in years, no matter how much money you put on it.

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Good for you Mike. It's not my field so don't feel qualified to make too many utterances on how easy this all should have been. I didn't see your name on any of the research teams involved in saving our collective arses though :-) Maybe if you'd been involved they wouldn't have taken so long lol.

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7 minutes ago, murphaph said:

Good for you Mike. It's not my field so don't feel qualified to make too many utterances on how easy this all should have been. I didn't see your name on any of the research teams involved in saving our collective arses though :-) Maybe if you'd been involved they wouldn't have taken so long lol.

No need for sarcasm, anyone on the field would know that.

 

It´s a similar problem as in Software development. If you can reproduce a bug in 20 seconds, you can run hundreds of tests per day until you fix it. If it only occurs every few days, you are screwed.

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You could just congratulate the huge efforts put in by thousands of people on our behalf rather than trivialising the achievement. Long 7 day weeks in many cases. I take my hat off to them anyway.

 

 

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