7,228 posts in this topic

1 hour ago, john g. said:

Chatting to a friend in our village today and who has cancelled a visit to the hospital in town tomorrow with his wife for a check on his wife‘s post-operation status... he told me the mayor and deputy mayor are both hospitalised right now with corona... and the mayor, who has not been wearing a mask etc, is apparently in a serious condition.

 

 

 

Which country?

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4 minutes ago, oscar 63 said:

think we are heading for schools locking down again here in DE?

 

they are floating the idea in Austria 

I think they will first wait and see how it progresses. If numbers keep climbing when most stuff is closed, it's obvious the blame is on schools. 

But at the moment it seems numbers are not rising exponentially any longer. I think they will wait up at least one more week.

Austria has much higher numbers than Germany, btw.

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10 hours ago, oscar 63 said:

they are floating the idea in Austria 

 

10 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

Austria has much higher numbers than Germany, btw.

 

Which could explain why the idea is being floated. But just putting the idea out there is not enough, these things need to be implemented, otherwise the virus will continue to spread and kill. :(

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I'm looking into my crystal ball and I see the numbers will come down after lock-down. But then Christmas looms. And we can't/won't cancel Christmas, the same way as we could/did not cancel our summer holidays. We had a responsibility to save the hospitality industry and after that difficult Spring we all needed a break, right?

 

Any guesses as to what will be happening mid January? Those without crystal balls will also be in with a chance of guessing right. Graphs, statisticians and journalists all superfluous.

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12 hours ago, oscar 63 said:

think we are heading for schools locking down again here in DE?

 

We've been Scenario B for 2 weeks now, so that's week on/week off, which I think is a good way to go - the buses are the weak point, they are crammed to the gills and there are not enough drivers to have extra buses. The kids are separated into bubbles/cohorts by class, whereas they are sharing much more air with the other bus kids - especially the country kids who travel an hour or more. We've gone under the 100 mark again now and the talk is of opening fully again, which would be short sighted I think. Hopefully we stick with this until Christmas.

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12 hours ago, oscar 63 said:

I can now say that many in the UK I know personally (London) have caught the virus. 
 

not in first wave.  

 

To clear up any misunderstandings, some countries in eastern Europe are experiencing their first wave.   UK, Spain, France, Netherlands, Belgium and Germany among other European countries, are in their second wave. 

 

Whether you know people who have caught COVID (I do) or not does not change the aggregate statistics.  

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19 minutes ago, optimista said:

I'm looking into my crystal ball and I see the numbers will come down after lock-down.

:huh: Shouldn't they come down during lockdown and then simply go up once again after the lockdown when people start going out more, mixing, eating out and shopping for things they don't need again? 

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21 minutes ago, optimista said:

I'm looking into my crystal ball and I see the numbers will come down after lock-down. But then Christmas looms. And we can't/won't cancel Christmas, the same way as we could/did not cancel our summer holidays. We had a responsibility to save the hospitality industry and after that difficult Spring we all needed a break, right?

 

Any guesses as to what will be happening mid January? Those without crystal balls will also be in with a chance of guessing right. Graphs, statisticians and journalists all superfluous.

They are locking down now to "save xmas", as Merkel said. Then the shit hits back again in January. But if the vaccine is approved quickly, there will be vaccines for around 2 million Germans by the end of the year. So although another outbreak comes, the critical people (doctors, etc), plus the elderly will be better protected, so fatality rate will be lower. This is dangerous, as people will relax too fast. It will take probably until summer until this returns to normal.

By normal I mean the government and society will accept a reasonable number of deaths per day, as soon as fatality rate is similar to the flu, i.e. around 5x less than now, without flooding hospitals.

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21 hours ago, keith2011 said:

 

Deaths are clearly rising in much the same way as new infections and Covid hospital admissions, just delayed, which precisely what is expected.

 

 

Look at the graphs of cases and deaths for the UK or a country of your choice and tell me what the delay is.    There can be a delay of contraction for 14 days, and there is some variation.   We should see two time series where one of the series lags behind the other by and average delay +/- and it should be clear.   We don't see that though.    When you test the model used for projecting against known data, that is called "back testing", by the way.  ;) 

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16 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

By normal I mean the government and society will accept a reasonable number of deaths per day

For me the maximum acceptable number of deaths per day from coronavirus is zero. :angry: 

 

16 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

there will be vaccines for around 2 million Germans by the end of the year

This year or next? :unsure: 

 

16 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

So although another outbreak comes, the critical people (doctors, etc), plus the elderly will be better protected, so fatality rate will be lower. This is dangerous, as people will relax too fast.

However people will still become infected through contact with people who bring the virus in over the borders as overseas travel will increase again. Many haven't taken a holiday in a long time and many will 'need' to start travelling again for other reasons - business or personal/family reasons. So although as you say a couple of million will be vaccinated and partially protected, a couple of million is a very small percentage of the resident population - which constantly mix with non-residents anyway due to the open borders policy. 

 

A vaccine for a couple of million doesn't protect the rest from being infected and from getting long covid with long-lasting health effects - coupled of course with resultant absences from work, sick pay, disability and all of the effect of this on the economy.

 

16 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

It will take probably until summer until this returns to normal.

:ph34r: My estimate is the following summer (2022) - at the earliest. For as along as corona ravages around the world, things aren't normal, at least not in my view and many I have spoken to feel the same. 

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14 minutes ago, lunaCH said:

For me the maximum acceptable number of deaths per day from coronavirus is zero. :angry: 

This won´t happen. I expect they accept even a few dozens per day for the case without any restriction.

 

Quote

 

This year or next? :unsure: 

This year. According to the news, there should be enough vaccines for some 10 million europeans before the end of the year, if approved. That would give around 2 million german residents. I don´t have hard numbers for end of January, but I guess 1-3 millions more. This is hard to know because of exponential production ramp up. Also remember the vaccine takes around a month for full protection, afte 2 shots.

One good thing is that the main production centers will be Germany and Belgium. Means the orange fellow across the atlantic cannot grab them all.

 

Quote

:ph34r: My estimate is the following summer (2022) - at the earliest. For as along as corona ravages around the world, things aren't normal, at least not in my view and many I have spoken to feel the same.

No, if this vaccine is this good, this is over in a few months. 90% efficacy is extremely high. Even 70% would already be quite good.

Corona will keep showing up and thousand will die per year in Germany. Same as the flu.

The only possibility of erradication would be to have most of the world population vaccinated, but I think this will not happen due to public backlash. It also depends if the virus mutates to something less contagious.

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16 minutes ago, lunaCH said:

For me the maximum acceptable number of deaths per day from coronavirus is zero. :angry: 

 

 

 

I find that extreme. People die from the flu, car accidents, eating peanuts, being stung by bees, etc. every day. There's a number of deaths (I don't dare prescribe a precise number) which is acceptable because preventing them would cause unreasonable cost, inconvenience, and so on. We could make cars nearly 100% safe if they were made not to exceed a speed of 30 km/h but that would have a disproportionate cost on society.

 

Corona is here to stay. My prediction is that it will change over time, like the cold and flu viruses do, and it will just become part of the annoying respiratory infections we are accustomed to live with. We'll keep getting sick every year and we won't know if it was a cold, corona, or the flu that made us feel miserable for a few days. My main worry is the antivaxx movement. If it keeps gaining traction, more and more people will refuse the flu and the future corona vaccines and that will have a negative impact on not just deaths, but also loss of hours worked and general well-being. We'll see.

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1 hour ago, Smaug said:

I find that extreme. People die from the flu, car accidents, eating peanuts, being stung by bees, etc. every day. There's a number of deaths (I don't dare prescribe a precise number) which is acceptable because preventing them would cause unreasonable cost, inconvenience, and so on.

I hear you. However is it reasonable to allow some people to die, just to prop up the economy? 

 

Any country that didn't close its borders early on is to blame for the spread of the virus, - so that's most countries. 

Thousands of deaths could have been prevented in Germany alone, had the borders been closed from the outset and quarantine rules been put in place. A couple of months went by before that happened. The result was a large number of deaths. 

The countries bordering Italy, where the main problem was did not close the borders for months either, hence the massive spreading that went on. 

Had this pandemic happened pre-Schengen and had countries had competent governments in place, all borders would have been closed from the very beginning and they would still be closed now until cases reach(ed) zero. 

It may seem extreme. I understand your point of view. I disagree with it though. I think anyone who has lost a loved one from corona won't agree with your stance either. 

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15 hours ago, oscar 63 said:

think we are heading for schools locking down again here in DE?

 

I'm surprised that they haven't already closed the schools, the kids who live near me aren't even wearing masks or distancing

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12 minutes ago, Wulfrun said:

I'm surprised that they haven't already closed the schools, the kids who live near me aren't even wearing masks or distancing

Presumably because it is only a recommendation and not an obligation. People just do what they want. This could/should perhaps be altered to increase protection.

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10 minutes ago, oscar 63 said:

Isn’t it because the studies are showing kids arent spreading it? 

I thought some were. Isn't any spreading bad? Children often have grandparents.

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Not at our school.. only one class off as a pupil caught it from his dad, a surgeon at local hospital

 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, oscar 63 said:

Isn’t it because the studies are showing kids arent spreading it? 

No, they do spread it, although younger kids (below 10) do it much less.

It just looks like they don't because not much testing is done with kids.

My son's school is pioneering a study with a lab, doing pool testing 2x a week. They found a positive case, immediately tested the 20 students on that pool and one of them had an early case, still without symptoms. They got lucky and isolated all those kids before it spread.

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