6,155 posts in this topic

1 hour ago, balticus said:

 

Look at the graphs.  Rely on data not narrative.  The impact of the second wave is categorically different than the first.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany/

Um, is something wrong with my eyes? All those lines seem to be going steadily up! But I'm not qualified to go into mathematical hair splitting. Never mind about percentages/rates or whatever, the raw number of people dead from Covid increases every day.

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1 hour ago, balticus said:

Rely on data not narrative

This are the RKI data  from the link provided in the post before yours:

Quote
  • Laut RKI-Lagebericht wurden am Donnerstag 655 Corona-Infizierte intensivmedizinisch behandelt, 329 davon wurden beatmet.
  • Eine Woche zuvor (8.10.) hatte der Wert noch bei 487 (239 beatmet) gelegen,
  • in der Woche davor (1.10.) bei 362 (193 beatmet).

It shows that the number of patients on ventilators rose from 193 to 329.

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It's getting so bad in the Netherlands that they have asked the NRW Department of Health to help out.

 

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In spring, 58 seriously ill patients from the neighbouring state had already been treated in NRW. Now intensive care beds are becoming scarce again in the Netherlands, and NRW wants to help again. The spokeswoman said that numerous hospitals throughout the state are ready to admit patients. At the end of September, the Dutch government sent a request to the NRW Health Ministry.

https://www.welt.de/regionales/nrw/article218015850/NRW-Kliniken-nehmen-wieder-Covid-Patienten-aus-Niederlanden-auf.html

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23 minutes ago, Feierabend said:

Never mind about percentages/rates or whatever, the raw number of people dead from Covid increases every day.

 

How could the total number decrease without raising the dead?

 

The Guardian's graphics are honest and show that the number of deaths and hospitalizations per case are dramatically lower.

 

Look at Sweden on the worldometers link posted.   The country remained open and seems to have weathered the worst phase.

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1 hour ago, balticus said:

Four weeks ago we needed to wait another two weeks.  Now we need another 3-4 weeks.   :rolleyes:

Five weeks ago you said it was over. Clearly it is not!

Four weeks ago you said hospital admissions and deaths would not rise despite increasing new infections. They are!

So what do you actually mean by " categorically different"???:rolleyes:

 

1 hour ago, balticus said:

Sweden looks great.

 

Compared to the USA maybe but crap compared to its Scandinavian neighbours.

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17 minutes ago, bramble said:

It's getting so bad in the Netherlands that they have asked the NRW Department of Health to help out.

The Netherlands can increase the number of IC-beds since the equipment is there, but there is a shortage of qualified staff to handle these patients. One nurse normally handles 2-3 patients max. The training easily takes 2 extra years, so the problem will remain for a longer period.

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I keep wondering how many non-covid patients have died because of the ICU beds and ventilators that are being used instead by covid patients. You  know, the facilities that were there long before covid for treating the sick and injured? There's a figure that will never come out.

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48 minutes ago, fraufruit said:

I keep wondering how many non-covid patients have died because of the ICU beds and ventilators that are being used instead by covid patients. You  know, the facilities that were there long before covid for treating the sick and injured? There's a figure that will never come out.

I don't have any figures on that but I know in the UK it is a cause of much concern. The NHS there struggle with bed capacity in winter even without covid, having to isolate areas in hospitals for covid patients only meant pretty much all routine work was postponed whilst emergency cases were gravely at risk in the early days of catching the virus from the infected.

I believe that here in Germany there was sufficient hospital capacity to enable them to designate and isolate entire hospitals for covid only and that could be one reason why the death rate has been lower than elsewhere whilst additionally allowing treatment of non-covid patients to continue more normally.

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We were told by certain people on here a month ago that Covid 19 was in retreat. Dangerous misinformation seems to be their forte. It is not in retreat. The virus spread slowly and steadily to everywhere and has been kept somewhat suppressed, largely by our ability to socialise outdoors during the worst of it.

 

Now the winter is coming but the virus is everywhere now. I predict a fairly rough 6 months ahead of us.

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1 hour ago, murphaph said:

We were told by certain people on here a month ago that Covid 19 was in retreat.

 

That was me and I stand by that.  😉

 

Would be interesting to chart the active cases, hospitalizations, and deaths for a bad flu season to see how many excess deaths above background we are currently experiencing.  

1 hour ago, murphaph said:

 

Dangerous misinformation seems to be their forte. It is not in retreat. The virus spread slowly and steadily to everywhere and has been kept somewhat suppressed, largely by our ability to socialise outdoors during the worst of it.

 

Sounds very focused, but do you have any scientific basis for that narrative?

1 hour ago, murphaph said:

 

Now the winter is coming but the virus is everywhere now. I predict a fairly rough 6 months ahead of us.

 

And normally you are an unflailing optimist.   

 

😂

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40 minutes ago, balticus said:

 

That was me and I stand by that.  😉

 

Would be interesting to chart the active cases, hospitalizations, and deaths for a bad flu season to see how many excess deaths above background we are currently experiencing. 

 

 

Why??? When ever you are presented with data that does not support your failed predictions and false opinions you ignore it and do your best to change the subject.:lol:

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2 hours ago, keith2011 said:

in Germany there was sufficient hospital capacity

If I recall rightly Alsace region was struggling and Swiss hospitals took in French patients.

https://www.nzz.ch/schweiz/coronavirus-so-kam-frankreich-zu-den-schweizer-spitalplaetzen-ld.1549263?reduced=true

https://www.swissinfo.ch/ger/coronavirus-pandemie_gute-franzoesisch-schweizerische-beziehungen-retten-leben/45662100 

Solidarität geht in beide Richtungen 

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2 hours ago, john_b said:

FT on Sweden... the box on the lower right is not a good place.

7C0235CD-3202-443D-978F-7734E68145CD.jpeg

Let`s not forget the UK govt said it was a choice between a ruined economy or high deaths.

Once again though the Tories surpassed all expectations and delivered both.

 

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On 17.10.2020, 14:02:26, fraufruit said:

I keep wondering how many non-covid patients have died because of the ICU beds and ventilators that are being used instead by covid patients.

 

I think I mentioned kid#1's boyfriend's granny, who had a stroke back near the beginning of the Corona thing and couldn't be hospitalised, partly because there was literally a queue to go to the hospital, partly because there weren't beds for non-covid, and partly because no-one wanted to expose her to the virus in hospital. All rather bleak.

 

Her daughter is a GP (retired) and she first saved her mother's life because she happened to be there when the stroke happened, then stayed and kept her alive for weeks and weeks while they waited for a better solution to present itself, and then, gradually, Granny's function returned, and now she is back to relatively herself. Which is extraordinary, and due obviously to her amazing daughter, herself nearly 70 and now utterly knackered - her first night back in her own home (with her husband and his mild dementia) was only last week. 

 

A happy ending in this case, but a rather special one - most people don't come with a free doctor, and also the cost to that helper was enormous, on a personal level.

 

Assuming that was not the only family in crisis, there will have been many deaths which although not Covid deaths per se, were definitely caused by Covid. I don't suppose we will ever know - the stats would be complex to gather, hard to prove, and there will be no political will to gather them at all.

 

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On 10/17/2020, 3:21:14, murphaph said:

We were told by certain people on here a month ago that Covid 19 was in retreat. Dangerous misinformation seems to be their forte. It is not in retreat. The virus spread slowly and steadily to everywhere and has been kept somewhat suppressed, largely by our ability to socialise outdoors during the worst of it.

 

Now the winter is coming but the virus is everywhere now. I predict a fairly rough 6 months ahead of us.

 

NY Times “Covid fatigue is setting in”. Seeing the explosions in numbers I'd say the same is happening here.

 

My biggest concern is why a small number get a really really bad infection, aka the long haulers. This is starting to get more traction in the media and is by far my biggest concern. Ot's the reason I put my expat group on hold for the winter. 

 

i suspect that deaths are increasing because Doctors are getting better at treating it and at risk people (like my parents) refuse to leave the house and family is careful.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Tim Hortons Man said:

i suspect that deaths are increasing because Doctors are getting better at treating it and at risk people (like my parents) refuse to leave the house and family is careful.

Did you mean decreasing?

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1 hour ago, kiplette said:

 

I think I mentioned kid#1's boyfriend's granny, who had a stroke back near the beginning of the Corona thing and couldn't be hospitalised, partly because there was literally a queue to go to the hospital, partly because there weren't beds for non-covid, and partly because no-one wanted to expose her to the virus in hospital. All rather bleak.

 

Her daughter is a GP (retired) and she first saved her mother's life because she happened to be there when the stroke happened, then stayed and kept her alive for weeks and weeks while they waited for a better solution to present itself, and then, gradually, Granny's function returned, and now she is back to relatively herself. Which is extraordinary, and due obviously to her amazing daughter, herself nearly 70 and now utterly knackered - her first night back in her own home (with her husband and his mild dementia) was only last week. 

 

A happy ending in this case, but a rather special one - most people don't come with a free doctor, and also the cost to that helper was enormous, on a personal level.

 

Assuming that was not the only family in crisis, there will have been many deaths which although not Covid deaths per se, were definitely caused by Covid. I don't suppose we will ever know - the stats would be complex to gather, hard to prove, and there will be no political will to gather them at all.

 

That is a very moving post.🙏🏻

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