6,203 posts in this topic

10 minutes ago, john g. said:

, there has to be some kind of gradual return to normal life. 

Short to even medium term, really not as good idea and almost certainly not going to happen as otherwise we'll never get on top of it and there'll always be someone with it and spreading it. Obviously if the measures in place are not adhered to and kept up then this is going to go on and on...

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Step by step, I couldn’t agree more.

Bloody hell, I remember the AIDS issue and all that from the beginning -ok, safe measures / no unprotected sex etc. 

Now, don’t get too close when you’re ordering a coffee ..

This is all horrifying.

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19 minutes ago, john g. said:

 half the population will end up needing psychiatric care.

It's always been my impression that they do anyway. The pandemic bumps this up even further. :(

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Small update for Munich area.Been holding this for a week. It seems quite stable, after a peak 10 days ago.

This is a very smoothed graph (2 week average) of daily cases in Munich.

mun_20201001.png.909bcfa6a3d5d9924088da1

Remember: it is not "half as bad" as the first wave, because reproduction scales exponentially with number of cases.

In general, Germany seems to be the best country in Europe right now handling this second wave. In fact, in Germany for the moment it is not a widespread problem, at least for the moment.

Unfortunately the rest of Europe is not going so well.

 

And before a certain group of people start shouting Sweden is doing better, have a look at this comparison between Sweden and Germany.

As you can see, using Germany as benchmark, Sweden never left the first wave.

 

And these are numbers with very poor testing on Sweden. Recently they started sharing test numbers and they are still well below Germany.

Even Italy is doing better for the moment.

SE_DE_20201001.png.adec9cefb1f65a2f53ada

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4 hours ago, john g. said:

Just watching this clip from the House of Commons on Monday and it struck me how few people are in the place.🙁

These people make the rules.. where are they?

 

No surprise, given that very stupid SNP MP who travelled all the way from Scotland and back on the train to attend whilst  positive for Covid (knowingly on the return journey)!

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-54379026

Again looks like the rules don't apply to those who make them!:huh:

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11 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

And before a certain group of people start shouting Sweden is doing better, have a look at this comparison between Sweden and Germany.

As you can see, using Germany as benchmark, Sweden never left the first wave.

 

And these are numbers with very poor testing on Sweden. Recently they started sharing test numbers and they are still well below Germany.

Even Italy is doing better for the moment.

 

You  avoid posting death or hospital utilization rates because they don't support your argument.    Fear! Fear! Fear!  

 

Sweden has performed more tests per capita than the Netherlands or Switzerland.  

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

 

Screenshot 2020-10-02 at 08.41.46.png

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So, now that Trump and Melania are infected it is not "just the flu" anymore and suddenly it is a terrible illness.

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1 minute ago, Krieg said:

So, now that Trump and Melania are infected it is not "just the flu" anymore and suddenly it is a terrible illness.

 

How so?   

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Or this.

 

Quote

Trump, in his Fox News interview, speculated that Hicks could have contracted the virus from an interaction with a supporter.

"She's a very warm person. She has a hard time, when soldiers and law enforcement comes up to her, you know, she wants to treat them great, not say, 'Stay away, I can't get near you.' It's a very, very tough disease," he said.

 

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48 minutes ago, keith2011 said:

 

From your article.   No need for fear.   

 

The government said there were 2,276 people in UK hospitals as of October 1, just over double the 1,107 who were receiving treatment on September 17.

During the height of the pandemic in April there were around 19,000 people in hospital with coronavirus in the UK.

 

I use worldometers.info for data.    It is sufficient to get a big picture overview.  

Screenshot 2020-10-02 at 09.52.35.png

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12 minutes ago, balticus said:

 No need for fear. 

New infections are rising rapidly, "No need to fear" hospital admissions aren't.

Hospital admission are now rising rapidly, "No need to fear" deaths aren't.

@balticus And when the deaths start rising rapidly, as they will, following the high rate of infections and hospital admissions, what are you going to say then?

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When the data show a rapid rise in deaths i will become concerned.  You can see from the current data that deaths have not risen with case counts which might suggest that the virus is weaker or the many of the most vulnerable have already succumbed to the virus.

 

Data rather than narrative driven provides a better picture and less political distortion. 

 

If i remember correctly some of the people on here have been predicting a rise in death counts comparable to the rise in cases, but with a two week lag.    It has not happened.   When that fails, the goalposts can be moved to the fear of the unknown zone by raising concerns about possible non-lethal side effects of the virus.   

 

Fear! Fear! Fear!

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7 minutes ago, keith2011 said:

 

@balticus And when the deaths start rising rapidly, as they will, following the high rate of infections and hospital admissions, what are you going to say then?

 

That would depend on what the governments do.  If they call for a quarantine then he will cry about how quarantine kills the economy.   If they do not call for a quarantine and the infections and deaths escalate he will criticize how the government did nothing to stop it.

 

Basically his politics are Captain Hindsight politics.

 

 

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28 minutes ago, Krieg said:

 

That would depend on what the governments do.  If they call for a quarantine then he will cry about how quarantine kills the economy.   If they do not call for a quarantine and the infections and deaths escalate he will criticize how the government did nothing to stop it.

 

Basically his politics are Captain Hindsight politics

 

 

Basically, the Fake Estonian is constantly trying to bait Toytown regulars to answer him and pay him attention, by any means possible.
Don't let him do that to you.
#disengage

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I look at that graph and think about all those people that died, not pointing out that everything is ok.

It was ok before the peak, it was better after the peak, that's what a peak is, it's the up bit in the middle. That we are on a down phase (with something that takes 2 week to pop out and say hello) makes the peak the only thing we need to think about. As in, what did we do to cause it to be a peak and not a plateau (which would be bad at over a thousand deaths a day) and how do we take that and use it now.

 

The rollercoaster of 'concerned when deaths are rising' is a result of 'lack of concern' when they are not.

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53 minutes ago, Metall said:

 

Basically, the Fake Estonian is constantly trying to bait Toytown regulars to answer him and pay him attention, by any means possible.
Don't let him do that to you.
#disengage

It's the way of things. One of our more famous dummy spitter bridge dwellers goes and comes back depending on how it goes.

When they go, other appear (now then, now then...) and for the rest of us it's juts a game of wack-a-mole. As one drops down another come sup, them the original one comes back.

 

As you say, best way is to not put any money in the machine and go play or do something else more fun.

Like read the twilight novels or binge watch the movies. 

 

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It seems like the infection and death numbers are all that matters any more. What about the thousands of long haulers who have "recovered" but are still debilitated months after with no signs of ever getting better. Sometimes, the things that almost kill you don't make you better.

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