6,148 posts in this topic

7 hours ago, kiplette said:

 

- they may also not have been a couple, just friends enjoying an afternoon at the beach and one giving the other a lift home, I guess - you are right, we really don't know their circumstances.

 

I find myself increasingly irritated by both extremes at the moment, which I suppose is a form of Corona fatigue in itself - the friend who constantly washes her hands now, even during her normal day at home, which is now damaging her skin, and on the other hand the Garden friend who last week refused to wear a mask and kept invading our personal space - whilst commenting how simplistic people are being about the rules. Gaah. I had hoped my days of backing off from Germans with their ignorance of personal space were over.

I have been married a couple of times at least! Believe me- their body language.. they have been married about 50 years!😂😂

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 02/09/2020, 08:43:04, balticus said:

It is basically over.    The virus has mostly run its course.    Heavy restrictions will continue to do damage to the economy and exacerbate non-COVID medical and social problems.  

 

With new infections increasing pretty much everywhere across Europe and already hospital admissions   and deaths are again rising  in France, Spain and the UK it looks to me like another @balticus prediction has bitten the dust!

From bojo https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54212654

4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, keith2011 said:

 

With new infections increasing pretty much everywhere across Europe and already hospital admissions   and deaths are again rising  in France, Spain and the UK it looks to me like another @balticus prediction has bitten the dust!

From bojo https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54212654

 

You can come out from underneath your bed, Keith.   :lol:

 

Please provide some hospitalization data to show some context.  

 

With respect to deaths:    (yawn)

 

 

Screenshot 2020-09-19 at 05.37.06.png

 

 

Screenshot 2020-09-19 at 05.41.15.png

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, balticus said:

With respect to deaths:    (yawn)

You do know that there is a lag between infection and death, don´t you? Apart from that I personally would be less worried about dying than about the suffering while being alive and infected. And I may not be the only one who thinks like that. So the death rate isn´t the only criterion when assessing the risk.

3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, jeba said:

You do know that there is a lag between infection and death, do you? Apart from that I personally would be less worried about dying than about the suffering while being alive and infected. And I may not be the only one who thinks like that. So the death rate isn´t the only criterion when assessing the risk.

 

You can compare the cases versus deaths and decide if the second wave of infections is accompanied by a lagging second wave of deaths.    I don't see it (yet). 

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, balticus said:

With respect to deaths:    (yawn)

With respect to deaths (oh sh*t)

as of the figures for yesterday:-

France +154

Spain +90

UK +27

All well above their recent rolling averages and rising!

 

3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There are definitely less deaths, and that is expected, treatments are getting better. Question is: is it low enough to be acceptable? As I've said for months, lockdown ends when politicians decide fatality rate is acceptable, which I think will be around 0.2%.

Also as others pointed, you need to wait 2-4 weeks more to see the death count from the current second wave.

Example: in US they never left the first wave and the daily casualty numbers are still crazy high.

In Portugal the daily deaths are picking up quickly, from close to zero to 10 per day.

4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, MikeMelga said:

There are definitely less deaths, and that is expected, treatments are getting better.

Which treatments do you mean?    

1 hour ago, MikeMelga said:

Also as others pointed, you need to wait 2-4 weeks more to see the death count from the current second wave.

See the graphs posted from worldometers which clearly show no surge in deaths 2 weeks after a surge in cases.   Let's see where things are in another two weeks.

 

You have probably seen the reports that the PCR tests pick up trace levels of Corona, not necessarily COVID-19, and thus generate false positives.   Without increases in deaths or hospitalizations, but increases in testing, maintaining restrictions will be hard to justify.

1 hour ago, MikeMelga said:

In Portugal the daily deaths are picking up quickly, from close to zero to 10 per day.

 

In the 2017-2018 flu season, which was severe, Portugal experienced around 3500 deaths.   The UK had over 50k excess deaths compared to the 47k COVID deaths this year. 

 

20 years from now, people will look back and consider the lockdowns to be peak government overreach / incompetence.   

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
41 minutes ago, balticus said:

In the 2017-2018 flu season, which was severe, Portugal experienced around 3500 deaths.   The UK had over 50k excess deaths compared to the 47k COVID deaths this year. 

Same old BS that came out when Covid was still only in China.:o

Wake up balti Spain has recorded 680 Covid deaths since Monday, France had 154 deaths yesterday and the number has risen every day from 38 last Monday! The pandemic isn't over, it is still out there and getting bad again.

4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, balticus said:

Which treatments do you mean? 

I don´t know what he meant but I´d think of treating/preventing the coagulation problems, the cytokine storm and the autoimmune response for a start.

2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, jeba said:

I don´t know what he meant but I´d think of treating/preventing the coagulation problems, the cytokine storm and the autoimmune response for a start.

More ICU beds, more ventilators, use of corticoids, Remdesivir, etc.

Less hydrochloroquine, less convalescent plasma, less zinc, less sarilumab and other ineffective attempts.

 

At some point there will be a very well defined guideline for treatment options for all stages of viral infection, plus most of the pre conditions. Then fatality rate might go close to the flu, even without vaccine.

By then we will stop talking about deaths, we will start talking about long lasting effects of the virus. I have no idea if these medicine will be able to counteract the long lasting effects.

Of course politicians won't care about it and as soon as fatality drops around 0.2%, they will declare it is over.

2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

More ICU beds, more ventilators, use of corticoids, Remdesivir, etc.

Less hydrochloroquine, less convalescent plasma, less zinc, less sarilumab and other ineffective attempts.

 

Do you have any data to back this up?

 

ICU bed capacity has not been an issue in most countries for months.   Remdesivir only has emergency use application and is not broadly used.   HCQ / Zinc cocktail was never broadly in use and outlawed despite the protests of many reputable Doctors who had used it effectively to treat patients in the early stages of diagnosis.

 

Updated: August 24, 2020
Published: March, 2020

Most people who become ill with COVID-19 will be able to recover at home. No specific treatments for COVID-19 exist right now. But some of the same things you do to feel better if you have the flu — getting enough rest, staying well hydrated, and taking medications to relieve fever and aches and pains — also help with COVID-19.

 

https://www.health.harvard.edu/diseases-and-conditions/treatments-for-covid-19

 

Quote

At some point there will be a very well defined guideline for treatment options for all stages of viral infection, plus most of the pre conditions. Then fatality rate might go close to the flu, even without vaccine.

That is neither a bold nor enlightening statement.  

Quote

By then we will stop talking about deaths, we will start talking about long lasting effects of the virus. I have no idea if these medicine will be able to counteract the long lasting effects.

It does not take a Ph.D in Virology to come to this conclusion.

Quote

Of course politicians won't care about it and as soon as fatality drops around 0.2%, they will declare it is over.

 

According to Nobel Laureate Michael Levitt, the virus weakens itself while reproducing.    

 

https://twitter.com/MLevitt_NP2013/status/1307504237048406019?s=20

 

 

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, balticus said:

20 years from now, people who were lucky enough to survive will look back and consider the lockdowns to be peak government overreach / incompetence.

 

FTFY

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, fraufruit said:

 

FTFY

If you consider COVID an existential risk after 0.066% of the US population has died with (not necessarily from) COVID, you might not be thrilled to hear how detrimental to your health cigarettes are.  

 

🤪

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, balticus said:

If you consider COVID an existential risk after 0.066% of the US population has died with (not necessarily from) COVID

 

 

Thank you for the number. It's good to see that masks, social distancing, travel restrictions and working from home are working in the US.

2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, balticus said:

According to Nobel Laureate Michael Levitt, the virus weakens itself while reproducing.    

 

Well I may not be a Nobel Laureate but after spreading around the world and infecting over 31 million people I can't see any evidence that the virus is becoming weaker, sadly. Doubtless though our own Noball nominee will dispute that.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, keith2011 said:

 

Well I may not be a Nobel Laureate but after spreading around the world and infecting over 31 million people I can't see any evidence that the virus is becoming weaker, sadly. Doubtless though our own Noball nominee will dispute that.

He`s the one who made lots of predictions trying to cover all bases.

In Feb he predicted China would have roughly 1000 deaths from Corona.

Then a couople of weeks after that was proven wrong he then predicted the correct figure of just over 3000 deaths.

You can guess which one his supporters use when holding him up as the worlds leading expert.

 

Amazingly though what his supporters cannot see is that he is walking proof that no one could predict how this virus was going to behave as happens with any new virus.

1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now