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I´ve plotted daily new infections in Munich since March. The following chart is smoothed with a 7 day average.

corona_munich_20200904.png.6e910b0c3b595

There is clearly a "second wave", but it seems well under control. Let´s see a few weeks after schools resume.

If schools don´t change the outcome, I expect a slow ramp down, perhaps 5-6 weeks to return to June values.

I also think that this might be enough to hold it till December holidays. Before March (or even December) we should have a vaccine and by next April or June things go back to normal.

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On 9/4/2020, 4:56:52, MikeMelga said:

I´ve plotted daily new infections in Munich since March. The following chart is smoothed with a 7 day average.

corona_munich_20200904.png.6e910b0c3b595

There is clearly a "second wave", but it seems well under control. Let´s see a few weeks after schools resume.

If schools don´t change the outcome, I expect a slow ramp down, perhaps 5-6 weeks to return to June values.

I also think that this might be enough to hold it till December holidays. Before March (or even December) we should have a vaccine and by next April or June things go back to normal.

Before March or even December we should have a vaccine etc?

And then? How many people are on Earth? Is it 8 or 9 billion now? Even if a vaccine ( without years of trials?) becomes available.. wat nu? How are we supposed to get everyone vaccinated?

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@ Yesterday - I sure hope that your source is WRONG!!!

Personally, I would like to believe that Mike`s source is more accurate, but at the end of the day, I very much doubt that anybody knows!

 

Somebody asked me today if I would be getting a `flu injection this year - of course, was my reply, but thinking about it, with all this wearing of masks and stuff, maybe we won´t even need to get one - it´s been proven that germs have a hard time getting through a mask, and since we are all (more or less!) wearing masks, how should we even catch the ´flu?

 

Even the common cold, which I normally get about twice per year, has not happened (yet) this year - touch wood!

I must say, however much I hate wearing a mask, it definitely helps you to stay healthy!

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17 minutes ago, robinson100 said:

@ Yesterday - I sure hope that your source is WRONG!!!

Personally, I would like to believe that Mike`s source is more accurate, but at the end of the day, I very much doubt that anybody knows!

 

yesterday's is global and Mike's is Munich, so not directly comparable as such.

 

Up here, places are re-thinking the relatively fast return to normal, and are slowing up again in terms of large gatherings, but in other ways the path to normal marches inexorably on, appropriate or not. 

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10 hours ago, john g. said:

How many people are on Earth? Is it 8 or 9 billion now?

7.81 billion as of March this year - but it's an estimate. Nobody has been around to count them as yet.

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On 04/09/2020, 15:56:52, MikeMelga said:

I´ve plotted daily new infections in Munich since March. The following chart is smoothed with a 7 day average.

corona_munich_20200904.png.6e910b0c3b595

There is clearly a "second wave", but it seems well under control. Let´s see a few weeks after schools resume.

If schools don´t change the outcome, I expect a slow ramp down, perhaps 5-6 weeks to return to June values.

I also think that this might be enough to hold it till December holidays. Before March (or even December) we should have a vaccine and by next April or June things go back to normal.

 

Care to make a prediction on how this curve will develop?   It's over.   

 

 

 

Screenshot 2020-09-06 at 07.30.21.png

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On 15/05/2020, 14:28:35, MikeMelga said:

117 deaths in Sweden today. There is a slight drop from last week, but at similar level of 2 weeks ago, so definitely a plateau.

Nope

Quote

This is more or less expected. If they don't enforce a strong lockdown, the plateau will be there for some time. 

Wrong

Quote

I wonder for how many more weeks they can tolerate this. My guess is that the trigger will be external, i.e. other countries will refuse to open borders to Sweden until they put it under control. Then the idiots on top can use that as a scapegoat and enforce a strong lockdown for 4-6 weeks to bring down the numbers. I highly doubt they are humble enough to recognize their mistake.

Or they run out of people with underlying conditions to die.

On 05/05/2020, 13:21:18, MikeMelga said:

 I am sure that an effective treatment will show up in the upcoming 2 months and a vaccine in a few more months. Then Sweden authorities will look like idiots.

 

#MelgaPredictions

 

Deaths in Sweden have been near zero per day for over 1 month.    It's over. 

 

Screenshot 2020-09-06 at 07.47.47.png

 

As i may have mentioned, I was in Helsinki in early August on a Saturday.   Nobody wore masks - not in shops, not on the street and not in public transport.    There was a street hockey tournament in an area in the center with a big crowd, lots of alcohol and no social distancing.

 

On the ferry between Tallinn and Helsinki - no masks.   In Tallinn and in Riga - you guessed it - no masks.   

 

There may be long term effects which have not yet been observed.    There are clearly non-COVID health and social costs which have been paid, e.g. increases in drug and alcohol abuse, domestic violence, divorce, bankruptcy, evictions, food insecurity to name a few.    Regular medical examinations which might catch problems early on have been reduced.   Regular dental treatments have been reduced.   Elective surgeries were reduced.   

 

From a holistic point of view, Germany and many other countries would be well advised to look at Sweden, Finland, and the Baltic states and restrict less rather than more.   

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57 minutes ago, lunaCH said:

:huh: Then why are people still becoming infected and dying?

 

Sufficient to restrict anything in countries like Germany and Sweden?

 

At some point, one needs to look at relative risk and assess if the restrictions have a greater negative health impact than the disease.

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44 minutes ago, balticus said:

Sufficient to restrict anything in countries like Germany and Sweden?

At some point, one needs to look at relative risk and assess if the restrictions have a greater negative health impact than the disease.

This doesn't answer my question. 

You say it's over. So I am asking: why are people still becoming infected and dying? :unsure:

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3 hours ago, lunaCH said:

This doesn't answer my question. 

You say it's over. So I am asking: why are people still becoming infected and dying? :unsure:

 

Crisis mode is over.  

 

People die from Tuberculosis, AIDS and routine influenza, but we do not treat those as health emergencies anymore because the numbers are low. 

 

In your view, what are the necessary and sufficient conditions to remove restrictions in a given region or country?   

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10 minutes ago, balticus said:

Crisis mode is over.

This is your opinion only. This may change if you have some apparently drunk/confused/elderly person with no mask on coming up close, sneezing/coughing/spluttering all over you directly. ;) 

It's not over until it's over. There'll be cases for the next couple of years at least - and you know it. ;)

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38 minutes ago, balticus said:

In your view, what are the necessary and sufficient conditions to remove restrictions in a given region or country?   

 

It is obvious. It all comes down to the number of new infections, if they are falling you can progressively reduce restrictions but if they start rising it may be be necessary to impose them (again) and that is pretty much what most governments have done across the world bar Sweden, Brazil and maybe the USA! Things maybe looking good in Scandinavia at present (as they were for a while in New Zealand, Aus. and S. Korea) but in case you have not noticed most of mainland Europe and the UK are experiencing significant rises in new infection rates. It remains to be seen if these rises in new infections do result in increased sickness and death but the last thing we want is to wait until the hospitals are full again and the death rate is going through the roof before there is action.

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3 hours ago, lunaCH said:

This is your opinion only. This may change if you have some apparently drunk/confused/elderly person with no mask on coming up close, sneezing/coughing/spluttering all over you directly. ;) 

It's not over until it's over. There'll be cases for the next couple of years at least - and you know it. ;)

 

It is my opinion countering your opinion.    We disagree on the amount of risk the COVID poses. 

 

There will be cases of Tuberculosis, AIDS, and regular flu as well.   At some point, the incidence amounts to a rounding error in the amount of risk it poses to society and then it is time to open up again. 

 

Life has never been risk free and without a serious threat, the restrictions are overdone.

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9 hours ago, balticus said:

Nope

Wrong

 

#MelgaPredictions

 

Deaths in Sweden have been near zero per day for over 1 month.    It's over. 

 

Screenshot 2020-09-06 at 07.47.47.png

 

As i may have mentioned, I was in Helsinki in early August on a Saturday.   Nobody wore masks - not in shops, not on the street and not in public transport.    There was a street hockey tournament in an area in the center with a big crowd, lots of alcohol and no social distancing.

 

On the ferry between Tallinn and Helsinki - no masks.   In Tallinn and in Riga - you guessed it - no masks.   

 

There may be long term effects which have not yet been observed.    There are clearly non-COVID health and social costs which have been paid, e.g. increases in drug and alcohol abuse, domestic violence, divorce, bankruptcy, evictions, food insecurity to name a few.    Regular medical examinations which might catch problems early on have been reduced.   Regular dental treatments have been reduced.   Elective surgeries were reduced.   

 

From a holistic point of view, Germany and many other countries would be well advised to look at Sweden, Finland, and the Baltic states and restrict less rather than more.   

So those 5800 death people don´t count? How about Denmark, they also have near zero at the moment. And they had 10x less deaths.

If Germany had followed sweden, it would have had at least 50.000 deaths. And considering differences in population density, tourism and travel hubs, you could easily have had over 100.000 deaths.

 

Let´s summarize: Sweden is a very isolated country compared to Spain, Italy, France or Germany. And within the country, people are very isolated from each others. They had EVERYTHING to have less than 500 deaths and they managed to mess it up.

 

Regarding my prediction: "  I am sure that an effective treatment will show up in the upcoming 2 months and a vaccine in a few more months. Then Sweden authorities will look like idiots. "

It is in fact true. The fatality rate is dropping a lot. In US it is much, much lower than we saw in the initial months in Europe.

 

 

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9 hours ago, balticus said:

 

Care to make a prediction on how this curve will develop?   It's over.   

 

 

 

Screenshot 2020-09-06 at 07.30.21.png

It´s under control. The control measures work. There will be sporadic mini-waves or sporadic isolated places but that´s it. When the vaccine comes, control measures will be gone and we can resume normal life.

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2 hours ago, keith2011 said:

... but in case you have not noticed most of mainland Europe and the UK are experiencing significant rises in new infection rates. It remains to be seen if these rises in new infections do result in increased sickness and death but the last thing we want is to wait until the hospitals are full again and the death rate is going through the roof before there is action.

 

It does not remain to be seen unless you did not see the graphs posted for Sweden and Germany.    The second wave has not been accompanied by a second wave of deaths. 

 

Look at the data. 

 

 

Screenshot 2020-09-06 at 07.47.47.png

Screenshot 2020-09-06 at 07.30.21.png

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