5,125 posts in this topic

8 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

 

Just to be clear, what you have quoted is a political statement, not a science based statement even if it was made by scientists and published in the Lancet.  

 

COVID-19 anti-bodies fade and eventually disappear in infected people.  

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/18/coronavirus-antibodies-may-last-only-2-to-3-months-after-infection-study-suggests.html

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54 minutes ago, balticus said:

COVID-19 anti-bodies fade and eventually disappear in infected people.  

That doesn´t necessarily mean you can be reinfected though.

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2 hours ago, jeba said:

Unless a vaccine or at least effective treatment is found the Swedish way will turn out to be the better one. It´s too early to judge them.

Really? How? This study clearly destroys their already flimsy strategy. Please use science on the reply.

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20 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

Really? How? This study clearly destroys their already flimsy strategy. Please use science on the reply.

There is no scientific way to balance lifes saved from falling victim to the virus against economic and social sacrifice. Plus there is no way to predict how the long-term outcome will be in Sweden as opposed to say Germany. Too many variables.

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13 minutes ago, jeba said:

There is no scientific way to balance lifes saved from falling victim to the virus against economic and social sacrifice. Plus there is no way to predict how the long-term outcome will be in Sweden as opposed to say Germany. Too many variables.

Aha! Here is the bullshit in your arguments!

1) There was no significant difference in economical sacrifice between Sweden and the rest of Europe

2) You are comparing the right to go out for dinner (social sacrifice) with the right to live! Going out for dinner is worth 5600 deaths??

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1 hour ago, MikeMelga said:

 bullshit

Is that your understanding of using science?

 

1 hour ago, MikeMelga said:

1) There was no significant difference in economical sacrifice between Sweden and the rest of Europe

Yet. Let´s see how the situation in 2 years will be. Also be reminded that I was talking of social sacrifice as well. From increased divorce rates to people starting to vote for extremists. Not to mention that I´ll not be able to see my GF who is trapped in South Africa for god knows how long (SA airports have been closed since March and will likely remain closed at least until the end of the year, according to government).

 

1 hour ago, MikeMelga said:

2) You are comparing the right to go out for dinner (social sacrifice) with the right to live! Going out for dinner is worth 5600 deaths??

Ask the restaurant owners, their employees and landlords. And ask them again in 2 years if there is no vaccine/treatment.

 

If there will be a vaccine / treatment it might be worth the sacrifice - but what if not?

 

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7 minutes ago, jeba said:

Is that your understanding of using science?

It is a perfectly reasonable adjective to your bad arguments.

 

7 minutes ago, jeba said:

 

Yet. Let´s see how the situation in 2 years will be.

That argument of "let´s see in the end" is just plain BAD. Do you think companies are run like that? "Let´s spend billions and see in the end if it pays off".

 

7 minutes ago, jeba said:

Also be reminded that I was talking of social sacrifice as well. From increased divorce rates to people starting to vote for extremists. Not to mention that I´ll not be able to see my GF who is trapped in South Africa for god knows how long (SA airports have been closed since March and will likely remain closed at least until the end of the year, according to government).

You don´t understand or you don´t want to understand. Lockdown is inevitable. Even Sweden had a lockdown!!! The difference is that they did not close restaurants and schools, which led to this high death number.

 

7 minutes ago, jeba said:

 

Ask the restaurant owners, their employees and landlords. And ask them again in 2 years if there is no vaccine/treatment.

Ask what?? Do you think an economy is based on restaurants?? 

7 minutes ago, jeba said:

If there will be a vaccine / treatment it might be worth the sacrifice - but what if not?

I already did the math a few pages ago. At best, there is a 10% chance they are right, but the most likely value is below 1%. There is my science. Don´t guess, estimate.

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28 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

Do you think an economy is based on restaurants?? 

Well, it was the only example you mentioned. Therefore, it was the only one In responded to. But me responding to you will have an end now because of:

29 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

It is a perfectly reasonable adjective to your bad arguments.... There is my science

 

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7 hours ago, jeba said:

Bus driver beaten brain dead because he refused access without facemasks:  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53309424

"-who had no tickets and were not wearing masks - to board the bus on Sunday night, a police source told AFP news agency.

Face masks are mandatory on public transport in France"

 

So, tickets are not mandatory on public transport?

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Maybe people have to buy a ticket from a machine right now to prevent hand/ cash contact with a driver in France? Dunno. And are dogs not allowed on buses in France? Don‘t know but also don‘t know what kind of dog. 

But, anyway, a disgraceful attack on a worker and NO need to attack him and leave him brain dead.

Lock the perps up. NO excuses.

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23 hours ago, jeba said:

That doesn´t necessarily mean you can be reinfected though.

 

It will be interesting to see how those cases are modeled and then used to forecast.   In this case, absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.    The probability of initial infection and probability of reinfection in the absence of anti-bodies may or may not be independent. 

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19 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

That argument of "let´s see in the end" is just plain BAD. Do you think companies are run like that? "Let´s spend billions and see in the end if it pays off".

That is exactly what was done with the shutdowns and restrictions.  

19 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

You don´t understand or you don´t want to understand. Lockdown is inevitable. Even Sweden had a lockdown!!! The difference is that they did not close restaurants and schools, which led to this high death number.

In six months we will know whose approach was best, and that can a model for the next pandemic. 

19 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

I already did the math a few pages ago. At best, there is a 10% chance they are right, but the most likely value is below 1%. There is my science. Don´t guess, estimate.

 

I believe i have reviewed your math and estimates and concluded that your assumptions were not solid.    If you want to repost your process, i can offer specifics, but won't bother to dig out the post.   

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44 minutes ago, balticus said:

I believe i have reviewed your math and estimates and concluded that your assumptions were not solid.    If you want to repost your process, i can offer specifics, but won't bother to dig out the post.   

Don´t make me, in light of this new study, the chance that Sweden was right went close to zero.

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8 minutes ago, dessa_dangerous said:

apologies if this has already been posted.  When even the military doesn't want you anymore, that's when I sit up and pay attention.

 

That's it.  I'm going back into self-quarantine.  Nothing can be worth catching this shit.

Coronavirus survivors banned from joining the military

Already outdated, though.

 

Editor’s note: In mid-May 2020, the Defense Department updated its accessions guidance, removing policy barriers to COVID-19 survivors joining the services.

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Yeah, even though it only made its way into my social media today, I did note the date of the article.

 

I'm not convinced that they didn't have good reason to ban Covid survivors, though.  That was probably before they realized how big this thing was going to get and how long it was going to stick around.  I find it interesting that we don't get a "why" on any of it--why the initial ban and why the lifting of the ban?

 

The "why not" could be a simple as not being able to afford to be choosy when you don't have a draft.  If everybody gets Covid but Covid survivors can't serve in the military, that puts the US up shit creek without a paddle.  I don't think the information being "outdated" means it's not still pretty fucking interesting. 

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Another outbreak in Germany. 

 

https://www.sueddeutsche.de/gesundheit/gesundheit-euskirchen-corona-tests-in-freikirchlicher-gemeinde-gehen-weiter-dpa.urn-newsml-dpa-com-20090101-200709-99-725852

 

Quote

 

In Euskirchen today the Corona mass test of a free church congregation is being continued, which had started the day before. The district administration expects first results on Friday. After the corona virus had been detected in 13 members of a family of the Mennonite community, the district administration had quarantined the whole community and ordered tests for the approximately 1000 adults and children. With the organizational support of the community, the tests had run very quickly the day before, according to the district administration.

 

The virus could have spread in the congregation's school or at a church service. Contrary to corona protection rules, there is no list of participants, according to the authorities. With just under 100 positive test results, the region could face the same thing as recently happened to the districts of Warendorf and Gütersloh: renewed restrictions on public life.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

 

 

I really do have to suppress a sarcastic comment concerning irresponsible religeous communities. God seems to have forsaken them.

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57 minutes ago, bramble said:

I really do have to suppress a sarcastic comment concerning irresponsible religious communities. God seems to have forsaken them.

Or they Him.

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16 hours ago, dessa_dangerous said:

Nothing can be worth catching this shit.

Speaking from personal experience (three months on still not 100% - and I got off lightly) I can confirm that. It is an absolute lottery on how you react to the virus. Which adds a certain thrill to risk taking I guess. People, you really do not want this. Act responsibly.

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