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On the radio today, the infections rate in Germany has increased to 2.8 !!!! Which is massive.

 

It seems to be linked, 2 the two outbreaks in Germany, and has been delt with in a local mannor.

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Presumably this R arises out of the localised outbreak which hopefully can be restrained through localised measures. 

So todays's figures for Güterslow in the last seven days are over 209 new infections per 100,000 population, in Berlin it's just under 9 per 100,000, in my district it's less than 2.

Just looking at the R figure was probably helpful for people in understanding the urgency of the situation initially, but now decisions can hopefully made on a more refined balance of factors that are present locally; new infections, available treatment capacity etc. and a somewhat reasonably functìoning track and trace system.

(I just wish there was a figure that allowed hairdressers to cut beards again. I'm currently living with Santa Claus' hermit twin brother ...)

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Coronavirus: Germany outbreak sparks fresh local lockdown

 

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The premier of the North Rhine-Westphalia state said restrictions will return in the Gütersloh district, home to about 360,000 people.

 

Armen Laschet said the lockdown would last until 30 June, and described the move as a "preventative measure".

It is the first return of containment measures since Germany began lifting its lockdown in May.

 

The country was widely praised for its response to the pandemic but there are concerns infections are rising again.

Lothar Wieler, head of Germany's public health body the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), told reporters on Tuesday the country was at risk of a second wave of infections but said he was optimistic they could prevent it.

 

Currently the reproduction rate or R number in Germany is estimated at 2.76.

 

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On 6/22/2020, 10:48:19, yesterday said:

On the radio today, the infections rate in Germany has increased to 2.8 !!!! Which is massive.

 

It seems to be linked, 2 the two outbreaks in Germany, and has been delt with in a local mannor.

R is a poor metric when the infection numbers are low. Example: if you have 1 person infected in the whole country, and if that person infects 2 others, R=2.

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Again a church service was the suspected cause for an outbreak. God hates us!

"Welt online:"

In the meantime, it is apparently known where the first infected people in the Gütersloh district became infected: At a church event at the end of May, as State Secretary Heller further announced to the Health Committee. According to research by the portal "t-online.de", which has since been confirmed by a district spokesperson, the event was a church service on May 17. Workers from Tönnies and a competitor in the industry were also present at this service.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

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On 6/23/2020, 1:26:02, MikeMelga said:

R is a poor metric when the infection numbers are low. Example: if you have 1 person infected in the whole country, and if that person infects 2 others, R=2.

 

Unheard Lockdown has a whole series of interesting videos on the Corona Virus, far more than I could watch. But one I did watch the immunologist made an interesting point, he said it's not the R number but the lengh of time you're sick. I can't quote his exact words but it's pretty much as you said, the R rating is only half of it. 

 

Probably mentioned 3 or 4 times already but it's quickly becoming apparant that world is going to be ring fencing the US. The EU annoucned that they may block Americans from coming to Europe.

 

Any news on the cruise industry, they were supposed to restart this summer but with the way things are going over on the Sunbelt I think that's highly unlikely. Of course is there anyone crazy enough to take a cruise!

 

Afterthought, Reading the Drudge Report is like watching a Zombie apocalypse unfold in real time :lol:

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On 25/06/2020, 14:27:02, AnswerToLife42 said:

Again a church service was the suspected cause for an outbreak. God hates us!

"Welt online:"

In the meantime, it is apparently known where the first infected people in the Gütersloh district became infected: At a church event at the end of May, as State Secretary Heller further announced to the Health Committee. According to research by the portal "t-online.de", which has since been confirmed by a district spokesperson, the event was a church service on May 17. Workers from Tönnies and a competitor in the industry were also present at this service.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

 

I wondered before if singing and mouth breathing might have something to do with it, or talking around others, especially if done loudly.

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On 19/06/2020, 18:37:45, murphaph said:

This is how it's gonna be until there's a vaccine. Rolling outbreaks and (hopefully) localised quarantines. The initial lockdown bought time to ramp up hospital capacity but we will have to get used to this new normal for a while.

 

That's fine, but the old "normal" wasn't really that normal. That's partly why we ended up in this mess.

 

So many jobs that can be done remotely but aren't. People taking flights as though it was just walking down the street. Chinese people getting exploited as cheap labor. Etc. That is not a pre-crisis situation, it's a crisis.

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On 22/06/2020, 23:34:21, Feierabend said:

There's at least two trimmers in the house!!

 

 

Reminds me of Waugh's "Sword of Honour".

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38 minutes ago, sos-the-rope said:

 

Reminds me of Waugh's "Sword of Honour".

😊 I haven't read much Waugh!

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6 minutes ago, Feierabend said:

😊 I haven't read much Waugh!

 

Trimmer is one of the memorable unsympathetic characters in that wonderful novel.

 

I wonder if he inspired a certain A. J. Rimmer in a Jungian way? Obviously I know the real inspiration.

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US daily coronavirus infections hit new record


 

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Summary

  1. In the US, 52,982 people tested positive for coronavirus on Wednesday - a new one-day record
  2. States are rolling back plans to open up - New York has paused plans to allow indoor dining
  3. President Donald Trump changes tack and says he would wear a mask "in a tight situation"
  4. New Zealand's health minister resigns after a series of quarantine breaches by travellers
  5. A report says there is no obvious source for a recent virus surge in the UK city of Leicester
  6. Globally there are 10.6 million coronavirus cases and more than 515,500 deaths

 

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4. New Zealand's health minister resigns after a series of quarantine breaches by travellers

 

I just checked the numbers at worldometers, for two months the rate of new infections were between 0 and 2. So, why resign?

I think he just wants to go fishing or sailing.

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They managed to have no infected at all.  Then the virus entered again via travellers.   It doesn't matter if it is one or two, it entered again.

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11 hours ago, AnswerToLife42 said:

4. New Zealand's health minister resigns after a series of quarantine breaches by travellers

 

I just checked the numbers at worldometers, for two months the rate of new infections were between 0 and 2. So, why resign?

I think he just wants to go fishing or sailing.

Sounds like a typical zombie movie... someone fucks up and leaves the backdoor open, then next thing, it's zombies everywhere!

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On 02/07/2020, 10:14:54, AnswerToLife42 said:

4. New Zealand's health minister resigns after a series of quarantine breaches by travellers

I just checked the numbers at worldometers, for two months the rate of new infections were between 0 and 2. So, why resign?

I think he just wants to go fishing or sailing.

 

He resigned because he broke his own rules and took his family to the beach right at the beginning of the lockdown  And not apparently to check his eyesight.

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@keith2011 The death rate is falling, down to "normal", but confirmed cases are rising, due to more tests. It looks like most experts are now saying that an earlier and tighter lockdown would have saved lives, especially among the older population. There are also fears of a "second wave". 

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