4,993 posts in this topic

2 hours ago, dom said:

 

Oh dear, Baticus! Is that your answer as to why unrefereed articles should be circulated by you?

It was not proffered as a clinical trial by me or by the investigators.    

 

Do you think there is a hidden agenda from Bloomberg and CNBC ?   Should this go to the conspiracy theory thread?   Is NYU a bastion of right wing ideology?     Move out of the sticks, Dom.    :lol:

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If NYU GMS is 4th in the US, they may become number 1 if they publish on injecting disinfectant into the lungs of patients! :lol:

It is probably more intellectual than to pick up whatever they first find on the shelf in their garden shed !

 

If you are a researcher at a reputable institution, maybe you should contact them and let them know what is on your mind.   Maybe they would get a good laugh. 

 

Speaking of laughs  (it's satire)

 

Guy treated with Hydrochloroquine hopes he dies to prove Trump is stupid.     

 

https://babylonbee.com/news/liberal-treated-with-hydroxychloroquine-hopes-he-still-dies-of-covid-19-to-prove-trump-is-stupid

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3 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

I would really like to look at this code. Buggy and unreliable on a model prediction? What does that mean? Does it have any effect on the outcome?

BTW, contrary to what people think, the best software is not the one with less bugs. It is the one that best fulfills the Quality Assurance Plan. And depending on the QA strategy, number of bugs might not be relevant. Example: a critical system, e.g. a production line server must be reliable, but the user interfaced used to configure it can be buggy and unreliable, as it is not part of the critical part.

 

As the results of his model were used for political agendas, you will need to look for news sources which you believe provide an even handed account of his record. 

 

 

If a model does not predict correctly,  in Ferguson's cases it was off by at least an order of magnitude, then the model is invalid.    

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13 hours ago, balticus said:

As the results of his model were used for political agendas, you will need to look for news sources which you believe provide an even handed account of his record. 

 

This means the software is biased, it does mean it is buggy.

 

13 hours ago, balticus said:

If a model does not predict correctly,  in Ferguson's cases it was off by at least an order of magnitude, then the model is invalid.    

 

Are you aware that predicting the future is sometimes difficult? especially when there is no historical data on the subject.

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14 hours ago, balticus said:

 

If a model does not predict correctly,  in Ferguson's cases it was off by at least an order of magnitude, then the model is invalid.    

 

No it is not! The prediction underestimated deaths for the lock down scenario in the UK by 1.75 to date. By the same reckoning the number of deaths predicted for a no lock down should have been 875,000 instead of 500,000. Where is the order of magnitude?

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8 minutes ago, keith2011 said:

Where is the order of magnitude?

 

Only the coolest kids were ever asked to join the Order of Magnitude...

5ec3925d01597_m79q8ue0qsQwuED-NLqtI03_NG

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15 hours ago, balticus said:

Do you think there is a hidden agenda from Bloomberg and CNBC ?   Should this go to the conspiracy theory thread?   Is NYU a bastion of right wing ideology?     Move out of the sticks, Dom.    :lol:

 

WTF are you going on about? I simply mean there's no point in circulating articles on studies that have not yet been refereed!

...and many reputable institutions publish articles which I'm afraid make no significant impact. You can start taking zinc sulfate daily if you want...just don't overdose yourself!

 

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2 hours ago, Krieg said:

This means the software is biased, it does mean it is buggy.

Read the reports.   They use the term "buggy".    It does not take a software pro to know the difference.   

2 hours ago, Krieg said:

Are you aware that predicting the future is sometimes difficult? especially when there is no historical data on the subject.

 

If you believe that, then you might have mentioned that to any of the numerous people on this thread who were critical of any policy decision whatsoever.    

 

Do you really believe there are no bad predictions?   No bad policy decisions?

 

 

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Narrator: Everyone knew that Krieg was right and this was just balticus' new line of attack to distract from being wrong.

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1 hour ago, keith2011 said:

 

No it is not! The prediction underestimated deaths for the lock down scenario in the UK by 1.75 to date. By the same reckoning the number of deaths predicted for a no lock down should have been 875,000 instead of 500,000. Where is the order of magnitude?

 

510k deaths predicted for the UK.   2.2. million predicted for the US.    Since they locked down, those numbers have been avoided or so goes the narrative.   One should be skeptical.  

 

When the same model was applied to Sweden via Uppsala Univ., it produced exaggerated predictions:   40k deaths by May 1 and 100k deaths by June 1.   Sweden currently has 3698 deaths.  

 

https://www.aier.org/article/imperial-college-model-applied-to-sweden-yields-preposterous-results/

 

If you are relatively unaffected by the lockdown and you can comfortably work from home, it may seem like a trivial point.   For people who will lose their homes, businesses, jobs and other opportunities, this exaggerated prediction and its impact on policy have been a catastrophe.    It is easy to "err on the side of caution" if that doesn't pose any risk to you personally.   

 

I maintain that the reaction to the virus will end up being much deadlier than the virus itself.  

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On 30/04/2020, 19:10:14, MikeMelga said:
On 30/04/2020, 21:44:34, MikeMelga said:

Those countries have to be analyzed carefully. Perhaps most deaths are in groups which were not vaccinated. Or the vaccine just stops the spreading, not the severity of the infection. In that case UK has stopped vaccination 15 years ago, meaning young people could be active carriers.

Or simply it would be even much worst without it.

But the correlation i mentioned above is so strong that there must be something about it. Controlled studies should report next month in a few countries.

 

Here is MikeMelga speculating (without a clinical trial specifically for COVID patients).    Clutch your pearls, @dom  .    Report him to the Mods.  Shock, horror, gasp.    :lol:

 

  

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Certain members of the forum seem to be suffering from acute moderitis. Is it something in the air? Will exposure to light kill it? Rectally administered UV-radiation, perhaps?

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Oh dear, seems DJT has been taking pool cleaner. Hope he will be okay...

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, El Jeffo said:

Certain members of the forum seem to be suffering from acute moderitis. Is it something in the air? Will exposure to light kill it? Rectally administered UV-radiation, perhaps?

 

I'm sure we'll hear about REctally Administered UV-Radiation, or REAR, from Balti very soon... probably pre-published, i.e. straight from the horse's arse! :lol::lol:

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1 hour ago, Metall said:

Take it! Take it!! :D

 

Well, given the Leftwaffe have tried to assassinate him 50 times, and everything is documented by the NSA, I'd say let them. POTUS is safe. However, the hate filled other side, oh dear.

 

Did you know thy were using ham radio and even gaming platforms to communicate? Whenever false flags such as school shooting occurred, the game platforms went "dark" All of course recorded by the NSA.

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Still too soon in the week, but there seems to be a trend in reduction of deaths in Sweden. 1 week ago it did not look like it.

Here is a linear forecast from peak. The linear forecast worked very well for Spain and Italy.

Good news: it's dropping

Bad news: very slowly, at this pace it will take 35 days to go below 20 deaths per day and 47 days to go to zero. That would mean 1500 more deaths.

s_19m.png.ff822e5dc47fd4388ea5f0d8096703

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1 hour ago, jeremytwo said:

Well, given the Leftwaffe have tried to assassinate him 50 times,

And this is the setup up if he has heart problems due to taking Hydrochloroquine.

It won`t be due to that it will be due to the left poisoning him.

 

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