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1 minute ago, AlexTr said:

GIF waiting well were waiting - animated GIF on GIFER - by Malofym

 

 

Is that Donald Trump aged 15?

 

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1 hour ago, balticus said:

Retrospective observational study using Hydrochloroquine, azithromycin, and zinc done at NYU.

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.02.20080036v1

 

 

 

I would not bother reading unrefereed preprints!

 

What is an unrefereed preprint?

Before formal publication in a scholarly journal, scientific and medical articles are traditionally certified by “peer review.” In this process, the journal’s editors take advice from various experts—called “referees”—who have assessed the paper and may identify weaknesses in its assumptions, methods, and conclusions. Typically a journal will only publish an article once the editors are satisfied that the authors have addressed referees’ concerns and that the data presented support the conclusions drawn in the paper.

Because this process can be lengthy, authors use the medRxiv service to make their manuscripts available as “preprints” before certification by peer review, allowing

other scientists to see, discuss, and comment on the findings immediately. Readers should therefore be aware that articles on medRxiv have not been finalized by authors, might contain errors, and report information that has not yet been accepted or endorsed in any way by the scientific or medical community.

We also urge journalists and other individuals who report on medical research to the general public to consider this when discussing work that appears on medRxiv preprints and emphasize it has yet to be evaluated by the medical community and the information presented may be erroneous.

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117 deaths in Sweden today. There is a slight drop from last week, but at similar level of 2 weeks ago, so definitely a plateau.

This is more or less expected. If they don't enforce a strong lockdown, the plateau will be there for some time. At the moment we're having 6 weeks of plateau, with a slight peak in the middle.

I wonder for how many more weeks they can tolerate this. My guess is that the trigger will be external, i.e. other countries will refuse to open borders to Sweden until they put it under control. Then the idiots on top can use that as a scapegoat and enforce a strong lockdown for 4-6 weeks to bring down the numbers. I highly doubt they are humble enough to recognize their mistake.

Or they run out of people with underlying conditions to die.

 

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Here is an update comparison with other countries. They are performing worst than Spain and Italy on the same part of the curve.

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@dom Given the moment-by-moment state of play on the coronavirus and COVID-19, I am prone to at least look at the preprints and letters to the editor in medical journals. You just have to actually read them for what they are AND understand what they are saying.

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This is a google translate of an article in a Swedish morning paper, my bolds.  So unfortunately they will have to rely on "the common sense" of the Swedes. I apologise for the wall of text and the translation, but thought I should put it here, since their "chosen" way is so much critisised.

 

Therefore, Sweden cannot issue a curfew
UPDATED 24 APRIL 2020PUBLISHED 2 APRIL 2020
Many countries have restricted their citizens' freedom of movement as a result of the new corona virus. But there is no support in Swedish law to go completely in the footsteps of other countries.

Some restrictions have also been introduced in Sweden and legislative changes have been made to, for example, be able to close schools.

But the Swedish key words are still freedom under responsibility.

One explanation for this is found in our law system - our right to move is namely constitutionally protected.

Freedom of movement constitutionally protected
Thus, a general curfew is not possible under Swedish law.

Our constitution, the form of government, puts a stop to restrictions on freedom of movement without the support of law.

- According to the preliminary work on the form of government, this means that special legislation is needed to prohibit moving freely in a "certain country end" or to visit other parts of the country. It also applies to prohibitions on restricting citizens' right to leave their place of residence, barring large areas such as border zones and parts of the archipelago, says Titti Mattsson, a professor of public law at Lund University.

What can be done with support in law is to put individuals who have been infected or exposed to quarantine. Then they must neither leave nor receive visits.

It is also possible to delineate a certain area, which is sometimes incorrectly referred to as quarantining an area, if there is a suspicion that a socially dangerous infection has spread there.

- In principle, it is possible to delineate a certain geographical area in Sweden, but then there is a need for reasonable reasons for it, says Titti Mattsson.

"Unclear how large areas can be blocked off"
The Infection Protection Act can therefore limit freedom of movement if the purpose is to prevent the spread of an infectious substance.

- However, the Infection Protection Act is not clear about how large these areas can be allowed to be, says Titti Mattsson.

When the Public Health Agency's lawyers investigated the possibility of measures based on the Infection Protection Act, they concluded that, in addition to being able to quarantine individuals, they can only block off smaller areas.

"It is probably a house, a school or similar," says state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell.

He also believes that it is beyond both his and the Public Health Authority's legal competence what type of legislation is required to announce similar state of emergency as in other countries.

Sweden has not been in a war or crisis situation for a very long time and therefore has no such exception legislation.

“It should be proportionate, necessary and reasonable”
However, such a measure should only be implemented when it is really needed and can have effects, something Anders Tegnell and Titti Mattsson agree.

- It should also be proportionate to the negative effects, says Titti Mattsson.

Anders Tegnell believes that Sweden's slightly calmer line is due to the need for sustainability in what measures are added.

- We are talking about something that will continue for a number of months to come and then you cannot do things that people do not endure, he says.

Both Anders Tegnell and Titti Mattsson are uncertain about the reasonableness of delimiting Stockholm for example.

Need new legislation?
- No, that's not our assessment. We work with these basic things, namely getting people to stay home when they are sick, protecting the elderly in every way and keeping health care going, says Anders Tegnell.

Nor does Titti Mattsson see any immediate need for a change of law. She believes that in a disaster situation, of course, it is easy to take drastic and major measures.

- I think it's important to think that we have a day to come, and then we'll look in the rear-view mirror to see if we really lived up to the fundamental freedoms and rights that we still cherish so much in our society, she says.

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7 minutes ago, Elljay said:

Our constitution, the form of government, puts a stop to restrictions on freedom of movement without the support of law.

That´s a very poor excuse because that´s not a sacred text and it can be changed.

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15 minutes ago, Elljay said:

The constitution is rather "sacred"...

Why? It must adapt to new challenges. In some countries, the constitution is constantly being changed. The Portuguese constitution is changed on average every 6 years.

The Swedish constitution does have mechanisms to create amendments, although from what i´ve read it is a cumbersome and super slow process.

I also think the Swedish parliament is sufficient to declare martial law, if required.

 

And in the end, if they can bar gatherings over 50 ppl, they can also close schools, with or without constitutional changes.

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1 hour ago, dom said:

 

I would not bother reading unrefereed preprints!

 

It was not proffered as anything else.   I picked up the story on radical conspiracy site Bloomberg btw.  

 

https://news.bloomberglaw.com/coronavirus/adding-zinc-to-malaria-drug-mix-may-help-covid-19-patients-heal

 

See this near the bottom of the abstract.  

 

this is a retrospective observational study and therefor not a clinical trial

 

@MikeMelga - reduction in mortality or transfer to hospice remained significant (OR 0.449, 95% CI 0.271-0.744).

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Zinc Oxide has always been crucial to our survival as a civilization

 

 

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1 hour ago, AlexTr said:

@dom Given the moment-by-moment state of play on the coronavirus and COVID-19, I am prone to at least look at the preprints and letters to the editor in medical journals. You just have to actually read them for what they are AND understand what they are saying.

 

That is false.   You are driven by politics objective truth be damned.  

 

You are the one who pestered the moderator into removing an opinion piece I posted which appeared in Nature, one of the most prestigious scientific journals in the world because it was not at odds with something uttered by Donald Trump.   A sad day for Toytown.  

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1 hour ago, MikeMelga said:

Then the idiots on top can use that as a scapegoat and enforce a strong lockdown for 4-6 weeks to bring down the numbers. I highly doubt they are humble enough to recognize their mistake.

 

#MelgaPrediction

 

Your disapproval of the methods used in Sweden is well established, and your insults are completely unnecessary.    You have become married to your position.   

 

If Sweden performs better when second, third, and nth waves hit, i expect that you will have the integrity and be humble enough to admit you were wrong.   

 

Swedish strategy has been about the long haul.   They will do better over the course of the marathon even if they are not leading at the 2000 meter mark.  

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@balticus You have not answered @MikeMelga's question. Please tell the class what 44% you are talking about. No distractions. Answer the question.

 

2 hours ago, balticus said:

Reduction in mortality of 44% is not new?

 

2 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

Where is that? Please quote.

 

I think by please quote he meant that you should quote from the scientific material.

 

Go on. 

 

You keep wanting to tell other people about how they read through a lens. Here's your shot. Prove your 44%.

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36 minutes ago, balticus said:

 

It was not proffered as anything else.   I picked up the story on radical conspiracy site Bloomberg btw.  

 

https://news.bloomberglaw.com/coronavirus/adding-zinc-to-malaria-drug-mix-may-help-covid-19-patients-heal

 

 

Hmmm, so one poster came up with Hhydroxychloroquine + Zinc Sulphate + Azithromycin right at the beginning of this Dempanic.

 

That was me! :)

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8 minutes ago, AlexTr said:

@balticus You have not answered @MikeMelga's question. Please tell the class what 44% you are talking about. No distractions. Answer the question.

I did.   You did not understand.

8 minutes ago, AlexTr said:

I think by please quote he meant that you should quote from the scientific material.

 

I did and you and @fraufruit (who greened your post) have revealed yourselves as statistically undertrained. 

8 minutes ago, AlexTr said:

Go on. 

 

You keep wanting to tell other people about how they read through a lens. Here's your shot. Prove your 44%.

 

 Bless your heart.     :lol:

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12 minutes ago, balticus said:

 

#MelgaPrediction

 

Your disapproval of the methods used in Sweden is well established, and your insults are completely unnecessary.    You have become married to your position.   

 

If Sweden performs better when second, third, and nth waves hit, i expect that you will have the integrity and be humble enough to admit you were wrong.   

 

Swedish strategy has been about the long haul.   They will do better over the course of the marathon even if they are not leading at the 2000 meter mark.  

I´ve made a very rough calculation on the chance that they are right. You can search some pages ago.

It gave me at best 10% chance that they are right and most likely 1.5%. So there is at least 90% chance that calling them idiots is correct. And up to 98.5%.

If you don´t like the numbers, please comment on my previous post and please find flaws on my reasoning.

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