9,779 posts in this topic

I have a weird feeling that the people who proclaim to be the most convinced that CV is a hoax are, deep down, the ones most frightened by it--whether they consciously realize it or not.

 

We all know that terrible things are happening that we don't know about.  But why assume that The Virus is associated with them?

 

Maybe the same reason they subscribe to any conspiracy theories at all--the world around them is a scary and confusing place and there's not much opportunity to get down to the bottom of why things are as FUBAR as they are.  If only they can just nail down an airtight theory (laugh emoji) about what's "really going on", they can alleviate the sense of cognitive unease.  This happens when our brains can't fill in the gaps of our knowledge and wanting to fill these gaps in our inner narrative we fill them in with whatever seems handiest.  Almost all people do this at one point or another, most of us more or less constantly.  I don't pretend to be a smarty pants in this subject, I learned it from Daniel Kahneman.

 

My theory is that it scares the hell out of some people that there are things going on that are beyond their comprehension and worse, outside of their control.  What makes The Virus different from other issues is that it can show up on your doorstep and snatch you up and you may not be able to do anything about it destroying you in the end.  Instead of taking government recommendations and restrictions seriously and washing their damn hands and not touching their damn faces, they pack up the fambly in the RV and go skiing rather than face the fact that they can't control or explain everything.

 

Me, I'm the biggest germaphobe out there but I'm not overly scared of CV.  I think I'm appropriately scared.  I don't want to get it, hope I don't get it, will do all I can not to get it or pass it to others.  Maybe that's why its existence doesn't make me particularly anxious though--I am scared of all germs somewhat equally and am used to avoiding them.  I've never labored under any false assumptions that I'm invincible and know that healthy people can fall gravely ill to all manner of diseases.  But for a person who fills in the gaps of their inner narrative with Just World hypotheses, where bad things happen only to bad people or uncontrollable things are indeed being controlled, CV must be a nightmare.

 

I saw this shit video about the empty hospitals in Berlin more than once.  I wonder did it ever occur to those who spread them that NO HOSPITAL in Berlin--or any city for that matter--is ever empty?  What kind of terrible fear does a person have to have of the unknown that they'll fall for something like that for even one second?  I'm not convinced it's stupidity.  I think it's just plain fear.  How terrified do you have to be, how much must you need to soothe yourself at all costs, to believe in an empty hospital in central Berlin at any hour of the day or night?  

 

Corona conspiracies come from a place of fear and helplessness.  My €0.02.

4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

Update: 135 deaths in Sweden today. Highest value in 2 weeks.

Of course this will be followed by 2 days with low numbers (weekend lack of reporting), so it is still unclear if this a plateau or if it is going up, but definitely it is NOT going down. My best guess is still a plateau. My guess for average value is 75.

As I am showing a moving average curve, the weekend lack of reporting will reduce the new peak height.

sw_pt_1_8.png.5a954304bf80bddcb951cdff3f

 

EDIT: in the meantime, 9 deaths in Portugal. 3 in Finland, 0 in Norway.

 

 

What are you using as a data source, if i might ask?

 

If there is not a dropoff early next week, it looks bad for Sweden.

 

Norway has a lower population density than Sweden.  Oslo is around 1400 per sq km and Stockholm is around 4800 per sq km as well.    

 

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
49 minutes ago, jeremytwo said:

 

The entire Coronavirus is a camouflage to cover up a very bad banking system in deep trouble. 

 

Coronavirus is definitely real, but you are correct if you mean that bad news which has nothing to do with Coronavirus is being blamed on Coronavirus or released under the cover of Coronavirus.  

 

Never let a crisis go to waste.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, balticus said:

 

What are you using as a data source, if i might ask?

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

 

3 minutes ago, balticus said:

 

If there is not a dropoff early next week, it looks bad for Sweden.

What I understand is that the peak 2 weeks ago went down because they finally closed the care homes from visits and they enforced stricter restriction there, in the beginning of April. 2-3 weeks later, number of deaths dropped, which seems consistent with graph. But now my guess is that it will remain some time in a plateau, or a very slow drop, as general population is doing as before, and now the virus is spreading faster outside Stockholm. And outside Stockholm the quality of healthcare is much lower, so fatality rates should go up. This will occur even if they reach herd immunity, as the rest of the country is 2 months behind Stockholm in that respect. If they don´t reach herd immunity, this will go on until all the "weak" people die.

 

3 minutes ago, balticus said:

Norway has a lower population density than Sweden.  Oslo is around 1400 per sq km and Stockholm is around 4800 per sq km as well.   

And Portugal has much higher and still faring much better. 9 deaths in Portugal today, 135 in Sweden.

2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, jeremytwo said:

The entire Coronavirus is a camouflage to cover up a very bad banking system in deep trouble. 

Exactly. They're rip-offs, all of them. 

 

I once had an account that showed "-20.-" as balance. I asked them what it means to have "-20.-" in the bank and if they're for real to show me a -20 banknote! They surely failed as there is no such thing as a -20 banknote!! So it is impossible to have -20 in the bank. 

 

But these banking fuckers always want to out smart you. They had the impertinence to tell my I have to pay 20 Euro into my bank account to be broke! How can one be broke when one just paid 20 bucks into the account? As if I am the village idiot...

 

 

7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

 

What I understand is that the peak 2 weeks ago went down because they finally closed the care homes from visits and they enforced stricter restriction there, in the beginning of April. 2-3 weeks later, number of deaths dropped, which seems consistent with graph. But now my guess is that it will remain some time in a plateau, or a very slow drop, as general population is doing as before, and now the virus is spreading faster outside Stockholm. And outside Stockholm the quality of healthcare is much lower, so fatality rates should go up. This will occur even if they reach herd immunity, as the rest of the country is 2 months behind Stockholm in that respect. If they don´t reach herd immunity, this will go on until all the "weak" people die.

 

And Portugal has much higher and still faring much better. 9 deaths in Portugal today, 135 in Sweden.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52594570

Italy‘s deaths top 30,000🙁

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

Mike although I respect your analysis, I must caution you on the "arcgis" domain. ArcGIS used to be Arc/Info map software which I knew quite well. They are a private corporation based in Redlands California. I once had a job interview there as the COO was my Course Director in Leicester UK in GIS. Well their software used to be based on mainframes then Billy Gates put the software on the Microsoft platform. Any input from Microsoft makes the data suspect.

 

That same applies to the Github Covid daily data sets. Who bought up Github a year or so ago - Bill Gates!

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, franklan said:

Exactly. They're rip-offs, all of them. 

 

But these banking fuckers always want to out smart you.

 

If you have a spare hour or so listen to this guy. You may think the origins of our banking system to be dull but I assure you it is not. Give Griffin a turn:

 

 

 

Fiat money systems are only meant to last 30 years. We are lucky ours lasted this long. 

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, franklan said:

Exactly. They're rip-offs, all of them. 

 

I once had an account that showed "-20.-" as balance. I asked them what it means to have "-20.-" in the bank and if they're for real to show me a -20 banknote! They surely failed as there is no such thing as a -20 banknote!! So it is impossible to have -20 in the bank. 

 

But these banking fuckers always want to out smart you. The had the impertinence to tell my I have to pay 20 Euro into my bank account to be broke! How can one be broke when one just paid 20 bucks into the account? As if I am the village idiot...

 

 

My bank manager once made a joke in the 80s, I think it was, when Mexico had a massive financial crisis. „ Mr Gunn, there are two debts that worry me - Mexico‘s and yours.“😂

The way the world is going, there needs to be an update on that joke!😂🥱🙁

3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, dessa_dangerous said:

I have a weird feeling that the people who proclaim to be the most convinced that CV is a hoax are, deep down, the ones most frightened by it--whether they consciously realize it or not.

I would not agree with that at all.  People who don't trust the government already will find ways to trust it less. 

 

Example:   at one point, some agency did a coordinated release in the media explaining that wearing a mask was not helpful at all.   This was done for effect rather than substance so that available masks could be routed to healthcare pros.   

 

The government lies or "nudges" all the time.    

Quote

We all know that terrible things are happening that we don't know about.  But why assume that The Virus is associated with them?

 

We can wait to pass judgement until something appears on the front page of a mainstream news source.   By that time, anyone who has not acted is screwed.  

Quote

 

Maybe the same reason they subscribe to any conspiracy theories at all--the world around them is a scary and confusing place and there's not much opportunity to get down to the bottom of why things are as FUBAR as they are.  If only they can just nail down an airtight theory (laugh emoji) about what's "really going on", they can alleviate the sense of cognitive unease. 

 

As late as one month ago, there were still people on TT who believed that Putin was pulling the strings of their puppet in the White House.   That is sheer lunacy, but absolutely respectable conspiracy theory.   That is called confirmation bias.   

Quote

 

This happens when our brains can't fill in the gaps of our knowledge and wanting to fill these gaps in our inner narrative we fill them in with whatever seems handiest.  Almost all people do this at one point or another, most of us more or less constantly.  I don't pretend to be a smarty pants in this subject, I learned it from Daniel Kahneman.

I took a graduate seminar from one of Kahneman and Tversky's research partners in the US in the early 1990s.   Everyone should read everything ever written by Kahneman and Tversky.     Teenage son is just finishing up the book you linked.   

Quote

 

My theory is that it scares the hell out of some people that there are things going on that are beyond their comprehension and worse, outside of their control.  What makes The Virus different from other issues is that it can show up on your doorstep and snatch you up and you may not be able to do anything about it destroying you in the end. 

 

Really?   If you have no co-morbidities and you are younger than 60, you are well positioned.    Why do you see such a big threat?    You have filled in the narrative with data which are not there.   

 

By the way, in the lingo of Kahneman and Tversky, that is called "dread risk".   People fear big, high publicized threats, e.g. terrorism, nuclear accidents, and plane crashes because accidents are spectacular even if their overall impact is low.   

 

1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, jeremytwo said:

If you have a spare hour or so listen to this guy. You may think the origins of our banking system to be dull but I assure you it is not. Give Griffin a turn:

 

Fiat money systems are only meant to last 30 years. We are lucky ours lasted this long. 

 

Stay somewhat on topic even if the other don't and put this on the money thread please.  

1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@balticus I don't personally see a "big threat."  It was in my theory that the people who believe corona isn't real are the ones who are secretly scared of it.  It was these theoretical people who perceive it as a big threat.

 

I don't feel especially at risk myself but I do believe what I read about young people with no preexisting conditions succumbing to the virus.

1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, dessa_dangerous said:

@balticus I don't personally see a "big threat."  In my theory that people who believe corona isn't real, they are the ones who are secretly scared of it.  It was these theoretical people who perceive it as a big threat.

If you don't see a big threat, why should everyone toe the governments' restrictive line?    I don't see WMDs, but contrary to 2003 people are not challenging the lockdown narrative.  

1 minute ago, dessa_dangerous said:

I don't feel especially at risk myself but I do believe what I read about young people with no preexisting conditions succumbing to the virus.

 

I believe that young people with no visible pre-existing conditions have succumbed, but the numbers show that they are the exception rather than the rule.  

 

Some people refuse to fly because of high profile plane crashes (the exception) even though air travel is safer than car travel.   

 

Fill in the narrative.  ;)  

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, balticus said:

If you don't see a big threat, why should everyone toe the governments' restrictive line? 

 

For the same reason Russian doctors are jumping out of windows.  Corona is not just a way to die, it is a horrible way to die and it's highly contagious.

3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, dessa_dangerous said:

 

For the same reason Russian doctors are jumping out of windows.  Corona is not just a way to die, it is a horrible way to die and it's highly contagious.

 

Yes, including necrotizing encephalitis and strokes in 20-40 year olds.

3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It'd be nice if the US government would do something. 

 

7:55 ETA: reporting says this was selectively edited.

5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, dessa_dangerous said:

Corona is not just a way to die, it is a horrible way to die and it's highly contagious.

 

Do you see it as a big threat or not?

 

Low probability and high impact or some other configuration?

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I do, and its name is balticus, and it wants to try to lock me into an unwinnable confrontation at all costs.

 

Not today, Satan. ;) 

 

edit: bit of a dirty edit there, the original post above this was a one-line question about if I see a big threat.

7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, dessa_dangerous said:

I do, and its name is balticus, and it wants to try to lock me into an unwinnable confrontation at all costs.

 

Not today, Satan. ;) 

 

Just trying to figure out what you mean.    Have a nice evening.   Greetings from the warm, toasty confines of Hell.  ;) 

 

 

1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now